The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
As a note Ive not had replies to emails either of late.
I would guess they are getting a lot in, hence not respinding due to time constraints, but all the more reason then to due something more public like an interview.
I do agree that it is in part a bit of smoke and mirrors, although thats not much different from most microcaps and their respective reporting of info.
Killi as it stands only has a smallish resource. If it was a new build so to speak I think most would steer clear as the return on plant build capex prob wouldn't make it viable to obtain the capex funding, however, its not a totally new build site and thus I think it can just about get away with its smaller resource ( For me anything under 1 mil oz I view as smaller).
It must be noted to that JORC resource is very different for a proved reserve falling under the indicated level. Killis indicated amounts are much smaller and usually funders like most DFS's only use indicated and above in there calcs for figures.
Now, that may appear negative, and I'm sure it is a big reason why its proving difficult to get going here, but, for me anyway, GCAT was about the potential, over the current. I always knew Killi was a small resource, but I liked the potential of the other plots which were so close by i.e. Vim etc.
I viewed it as Killi would be the inital cash generator to help fund the exploration of the other nearby plots, which if proven as good, would allow the company to go to the market asking for larger funds to build a bigger plant to deal with the larger resource.
My expectations were that this method would take longer, but require less raises on route due to killi producing and this was in many ways what Robbie and the team sold the project as i.e. 24k by year end comments several years back.
Its not turned out to be remotely like that as we all know, but the plan can still take shape, but the question we are all waiting on is if Robbie has what it takes to get us out of the situation he has put us into.
Some on here think he will, some don't. I'm as yet undecided. Past evidence says he doesn't in terms of ability, but he has proven resilient, which is a strength.
I disagree there SW. Yes gold prices are awesome right now, but that doesn't mean everything should be bags of cash or your failing.
Production as an entity is as we all know is only one part of the process. Its having enough production to make your opex or aisc less than your outlays and that generally requires larger numbers in terms of tonnes put through whatever system is used.
GCATs problem has always been that it didnt have the ability to run enough dirt through its systems to make the project viable, hence the requirement for capital to increase production abilities.
That problem still stands today and imo would likely still stand if gold was at over 3000 per oz.
The higher prices help, but you still need the equipment to take be able to process the dirt.
We simply don't have the right equipment working at a decent level right now to make the company viable.
Secondary to that then becomes hows any money made is used. If say we managed to make 500k in a month profit, but spent it exploration drilling leaving us back at broke, we still end up in the same place of not having enough available cash to do upgrades etc.
There has been points in the past when money wasn't so tight. Has it all been used well? Without any recent accounts its not easy to tell, which is again a problem.
- Agreed JC, that would be nice to see.
An audit doesn't or shouldn't take 5 months plus. The problem is we don't actually know when the company started the process. We have verbal stuff saying, audit on track etc going back to end of Nov, given out via tweets etc, however as we know, Robbie is very loose with the truth at times as seen historically on many occassions and as such we can't assume the audit has been underway for 5 months. For the accounts to be audited they also first need to have been made. Its possible, if not looking likely, that the accounts weren't done at all, which explains the time a bit more. You also have the back and forth with the FCA possibly, if the audit/accounts had errors (although after an audit you would hope not).
5 months is an absurd amount of time to complete the financials for what is in effect a very small company, but there can be explanations. My main problem isn't the time taken, its the total lack of comms by the BOD around the process. A simple stockbox interview to explain whats going on would sooth a lot of worries I'm sure.
I am a big believer in the line "what isnt said is important" and thus if it was going well, they would be shouting about it.
I would imagine the reason different models have been talked about is because at this stage, she herself doesn't know as it will surely depend on what types of finance might become possible and until were at that stage (talks), its hard to predict who or what might want in and in what manner.
Given the large sums required to build and given are low cash flow, for me I can see that we will either be left with some type of royality deal or a low percentage one.
Either way, as long as it works out that we can make decent cashflow possible im all good.
The reward has to justify the outlay in terms of time spend so far for me.
Indeed JC. Until Robbie opens that box, were all in the dark right now. Making money or losing money, getting unsuspended or staying suspended. Having a prospectus or not, getting funding of remaining unfunded.
So many questions. All of which we will get the results of at some point.
Thats another step ticked off. Approval will be the next one then the biggie, financing.
Its the financing and details of that which are key here and what imo the market is waiting on as until then, none of us know what we can expect to make/get from this project, if it is able to be built.
To do that though prior items had to be completed and Naheed is ticking them off one by one, so credit for that.
Depends whose round it is surely JC. If its your round, there still half full right and can wait, if its anyone elses, then its half empty, top up time.
Or maybe that should be the other way round as then you could get away with just buying everyone a half pint lol.
I dunno, its all very schrödinger's cat this. Half full and half empty at the same time
AG,
Hope you're well.
Given the massive salary taken by our CEO here, you would have expected a bit more time taken on this update, but in truth every update is vague here. Nothing ever has much detail to it.
I remember the GH feasibility study undertaken by a third party for us and all we got was a "its done" RNS with zero detail in it after we had all waited on it for about 12 months.
Its an area for improvement imo.
Well his track record doesn't fill you with hope or show any abilities capable of running a listed company, i.e., failing to submit accounts two years in a row, but history doesn't equate to the future so who knows, he might.
I personally hope he does for reasons that are clear aka my pocket lol.
Thing with micro caps is sentiment can change fast.
Robbie has to get the company unsuspended before anything else though as time is running out on how long he will have left to sort that.
On a different note, given this board loves a good tweet, im suprised there hasnt been more concerns or questions asked over the account suddenly stopping posting many weeks ago. Last time it did that was when they almost run out of cash. We know dispite gold being at record levels, cash is again low as they had to raise to stay afloat.
I will be honest Legal, so many placings in so many companies strike me as beyond brave at times, but I'm pretty sure there is a lot more to these things than meets the eye. What those things are I don't know, but you see literally hundreds upon hundreds of poor placings/placees deals over the years whereby they on paper never recoup what they put in, yet, daily, more goes into companies in the same manner.
I'm sure a lot is a mix of reasons, including stuff such as also owning the companies who do the placings and take percents fees, through to offsetting and money moving, through to poor advice being taken.
End of the day there is placees here who will have ticked all of JCs boxes in terms of informed etc, yet will be 80% plus down.
JCs last box though is the biggy. "Timely". That can't be known until they eventually sell. Until you have the whole in and out transcation on paper as a stat. Until then, its only using todays price as the judge, although that said, im sure they would rather have not taken placing deals when the SP was many times higher.
Hi Legal,
I believe the money is issued, then, the shares are introduced to the market down the road once the conditions are met, which is the same as most of the raises over the last 18 months here I think.
Id be suprised tbh bebeto, simply as 700k plus went into the books a month ago.
Thats about the only reason which would suprise me though. If it wasnt for that then id not be suprised at all as all the waxed lyrical hype robbie did one day before suspension, given the mad amount of time thats passed since, with barely any comms, going under wouldnt have been that absurd a thought.
Either way, time will provide us with the outcome even if the company cant as they dont have an unlimited amount of it to file the accounts.
I cant disagree that the timeframe taken is shocking. I cant see how anyone could make excuses for that either.
Management has a lot to prove here and as it stands are currently proving they aren't capable.
Surin, no invest or deal is without risk, nor can all risks ever be eliminated, however, in terms of Hainian and control, you will have a counterbalancing effect at play.
Any increase in risk from say controlling stakes and thus views, must be levelled with the risks of not having them involved at all.
Example being, without their funding money, there would be no DMS (although of course a different funder might have appeared, but its not a given the deal would have been any different).
In terms of possible future takeovers, again, always a risk, but the caveat is for me I'd rather be in a company that someone else wants to takeover than one no one wants to go near and by proxy it usually means your doing well.
In terms of Mali as an entity, the risk levels are no more than ever before, if anything, potentially less so (according to BA today at least). The risk here however is imo a bonus as if there was none, none of us holders could prob have ever brought in at decent prices as no risk locations or companies usually aint small cap.
In terms of the offtake. It feels correct to me and likely always the plan. Hainian put in circa 100 mil plus. There due diligence would have highlighted Suays offtake stake before they funded us, thus Im sure they always had there eye on 100% offtake, and thats not bad for us either as its a customer for all of our product at market prices. There was nothing concrete that said Suay would buy there 80% worth month on month and if they refused ever, we would have to find other customers.
End of the day the money is only made because of the sales and knowing you can sell 100% of your product is a great thing. Its that which will assist our figures.