Member Info for Yobbo

So is this why Brent was over $85 earlier this evening? It all seems so confusing as there have been stories recently saying that Iran is finding a ready market for its oil despite the sactions threat.

It may do even better Tuesday as Brent crude was over $85 earlier this evening. I have been trying to find out why this is but a lot of the news info seems so contradictory that getting to the bottom of the real story is tricky.

I dont see a fall of any major significance in Jul 2000. If you were looking instead at the whole of 2002 then that would be a different matter when the company was leaching cash suffered a low oil price and there were also production falls.They were also struggling to integrate 3 major acquisitions at that time.

Brent Oil price went over $83 Fri evenng, if that sticks then £6 could be challenged soon

With the AM unlikely to move today as not much happens in Dubai on a Friday, I presume that if Hurricane are to meet their 'before the end of 3Q' Sailaway target (per their recent presentations), then a great deal is going to need to happen this weekend?

Shedful, thx for posting the link to the Technical presentation to the Geological Society. The main thing I learned as a layman was the size of the faults being targeted. I had previously assumed the oil bearing fractures and faults were in the 10cm to 3m range but Dr T was talking about a succession of faults that averaged 49m. Faults so wide that the drill string was unsurprisingly sagging. Now I can see why they are confident about volumes in the reservoir and its potential productivity. Fascinating.

There are a few people in the shale patch predicting that shale will drop off significantly after 2024/5 and after that just revert to stripper well operations. Most wells barely reach 3 years of production before the plateau tails off. I have always regarded shale as very much the scrapings of the global oil barrel. It hss always been very difficult to make a profit out of shale.

They will also be able to smooth the journey from a technical and regulatory perspective to allow access to the West of Shetlands pipeline to export the gas. Obviously they are experts in this area.

I would have preferred to see some cash in this deal even if it was only a few million. HUR need cash like all small explorers and an opportunity to de-risk cash flow projections based currently on potentially unreliable prognosed production from Lancaster would have benn high on my list of things needed for a deal like this to be a success.

Everything else looks okay, apart from delayed future drilling on Lancasrer while they focus on GWA. I would also want to know more about debottlenecking the AM. The last thing we need is for her to be taken off station for this to be done in a European yard for 6-8 weeks

Maybe certain parts of the market know more of the real situation than the Telegraph.

When EPS starts, how accurately will the shipwatchers be able to comment on actual production in advance of Hurricanes official production numbers ? Would it be a viable stategy for the shipwatchers to count the frequency of shuttle tanker loads leaving the AM to deterrmine likely production?

JK / AD I don't think either of you is a mile out, you just seem to differ about the divi. Personally I would expect some minor direct payoff to faithful investors but nothing massive. A minority stake and a free carry would be my preferred route to full development, its a well trodden path.

I think a hostile takeover is highly unlikely as the Oil industry in Europe and the US just doesn't operate that way due to the amount of politics around these sort of things. Agreed mergers are far more common. Its all in the wording. I see little to no chance of a Chinese company going for a full takeover (again politics) but they could be a minor partner in a Joint venture. Operatorship would always be a large or major European or American player.

Mmmm, main sponsors are Shell and BP and a speaker from Saudi Aramco as well as the good Dr Trice. Plus an interesting looking 2 night field trip to Durham to no doubt view some analagous onshore fractured rock structures. Perhaps fractured basin plays are about to become fashionable with the big boys?

AD, I am the same. I am amazed at the number of Oil industry people who have not heard that a company is trying to produce Oil a different way in the UKCS and is close to first oil. A couple of those I have discussed it with should know better as they are so called industry intelligence types.

Regardless, the sea trials and rectifying any snags will be a much shorter period than the much more critical commissioning and start up phase. I have seen some quite unfeasibly short periods being predicted on here for commissioning and start up once AM is on station. Folks should consider recently BP's Glen Lyon FPSO which although much bigger than the AM it is operating in a similar environment and she took over 10 months to first oil from arrival at its buoy. Obviously the GL is a much larger and more complex vessel, but it will have been much better resourced than Hurricane. FPSO's are about as complicated as floating vessels get and to get everything attached & commissioned can take quite some time. This is why I was delighted to read that many of the crew from her previous job have been retained for Lancaster as this will significantly reduce the amount of time to get to first oil as the start up and operating protocols will already be known. I am with Hurricane in terms of the predicted date for first Oil. They might knock a few weeks off, but not many.

The above assumes though that Hurricane intend to have a medium term plan and don't aspire to be taken out lock stock and barrel.

I suspect that if Hurricane were to sell the GLA or GWA assets then they would actually be cede operatorship but would keep a sub 30% minority stake in each to fund future projects. Any purchaser would want Hurricane to have an on-going interest in the fields as they are fractured basement specialists and there are technical synergies with them continuing to be on board. Besides, Hurricane like all small Explorers need cash flow and any previous success can provide that.

Although admittedly unlikely, I would not entirely rule out your dreams. Oil reservoirs generally tend to increase in size during their production life as more field development work is done and the reservoir becomes better understood. It is not entirely impossible that what Hurricane has could eventually be between Forties and Clair/Clair ridge in size. However, they will need to get past the next 18 months first, do a shed load more drilling and hope that the water gods stay away. Big reservoirs once proven generally only get bigger.. The 'prove' word is the tricky bit. That would take a long time and Hurricane would be history long before then though.

Who are laying the rock, Van Oord ? They have some very clever ships to deliver large amounts of rock in a very short period to something like 1000m with what looks like an ROV controlled subsea pea-shooter.

Isn't it slightly odd to announce a dividend increase today as a footnote to an acquisition announcement rather than next week with the 2Q Financials ? Its the first increase in nearly 4 years, so very welcome nonetheless.