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with US proactive interview and IC article. Ultimately I still see this back in mid 20s and trading sideways for a while. Minimum 50p prior to phase 3 read out, on read out day it will be in multiple £s or back to here dependent on good or bad news!
It will be a bumpy ride along the way, also dependent on what news comes out on TPR etc along the way.
Great risk v reward at the moment in my opinion
GLA
for the next leg up. Over the next month or 2 this should make its was back to mid-20s. From there it will probably await news of TPR etc. I then expect it to be at minimum 50p prior to phase 3 readout. After results known it will either be in the multiple £s on good news, or back where it is now. Risk vs Reward ratio is amazing at the moment, but don’t risk more then you are prepared to loose.
GLA
Thanks for reply, I have read many of your posts and saw your reasoning. But if you are an experienced investor as you seem, I would have expected you to be able to name examples of companies that have gone through phase 3 trials for a potential blockbuster and to be valued at only 10m just prior to read out as you have stated.
No worries, I just wanted the examples so that I could do a comparison of FUM to them and see if you are correct or not with your valuation of no more then 10m for FUM. This would have been great to see and compare actually, as my experience of price action for companies leading up to phase 3 readout is completely opposite to yours it seems!
Anyway, all imo
GL
Just repeating my post from Friday. Rhodi please reply to my question when you get a chance.
It has finished up from last week. I am happy with that, it has now pretty much doubled since a few weeks back when it was heavily oversold.
Watch out for posters who claim that it will go up to £3,£4,£5 etc, that will only ever happen if phase 3 results are good and large pharma are sniffing round for deals or takeover.
Equally watch out for posters who say that this will be back at 7p, like Rhodi. He clearly has an agenda to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible, it allows them to build a stake. Why else would someone suggest that a company who is in phase 3 trials should be valued at 10m only (FUMs cash value alone is 10m). In fact I cannot think of a company who has been in phase 3 trials and stayed anywhere near a 10m valuation. Rhodi’s 7p valuation is even more crazy when you think that FUM have a decent chance of succeeding at phase 3.
Rhodi could you please provide us with some examples of companies that have been in phase 3 for a potential blockbuster product and have been valued at only 10m just prior to read out? That would be very helpful.
It’s not how the markets work, they rise on expectations/ rumours, I would not be surprised if Rhodi starts ramping come Q3/Q4 this year.
Simply be careful of who you follow. Right now it is a no brainier to buy if that’s what you want to do purely because price is so low. But how high it will go no one has any idea. I still stand by minimum 50p prior to phase 3 read out, after that depends of good or bad results.
GLA
It has finished up from last week. I am happy with that, it has now pretty much doubled since a few weeks back when it was heavily oversold.
Watch out for posters who claim that it will go up to £3,£4,£5 etc, that will only ever happen if phase 3 results are good and large pharma are sniffing round for deals or takeover.
Equally watch out for posters who say that this will be back at 7p, like Rhodi. He clearly has an agenda to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible, it allows them to build a stake. Why else would someone suggest that a company who is in phase 3 trials should be valued at 10m only (FUMs cash value alone is 10m). In fact I cannot think of a company who has been in phase 3 trials and stayed anywhere near a 10m valuation. Rhodi’s 7p valuation is even more crazy when you think that FUM have a decent chance of succeeding at phase 3.
Rhodi could you please provide us with some examples of companies that have been in phase 3 for a potential blockbuster product and have been valued at only 10m just prior to read out? That would be very helpful.
It’s not how the markets work, they rise on expectations/ rumours, I would not be surprised if Rhodi starts ramping come Q3/Q4 this year.
Simply be careful of who you follow. Right now it is a no brainier to buy if that’s what you want to do purely because price is so low. But how high it will go no one has any idea. I still stand by minimum 50p prior to phase 3 read out, after that depends of good or bad results.
GLA
They may well be selling some more, but that’s not a measuring stick for where this company may or may not go. You have to understand that institutions have there own strategies and policies to stick by. If you held that many shares I am sure you would sell a few % after the price has doubled???
Also while they no doubt know more then us PIs, again you have to understand that there is no guarantee with Phase 3 trials even if everything looks greats. Even a drug that actually works can fail purely because of the placebo response rate. And let’s be honest here, rubbing a gel on your dick, it will be hard for there not to be some success with a placebo.
Therefore as nothing is guaranteed, it’s wise to take profit at points a long the way. But again as I keep saying, this will keep rising over the year and will be minimum 50p prior to phase 3 read out. After that it’s dependant on how good or bad the results are.
Shares rise on potential and that’s is what this will do.
GLA
Tommy where does it say Janus Henderson on the rns as you stated earlier. It’s quite a simple question, and one that could simply end the discussion.
Either way it doesn’t matter, they are entitled to sell some, and most do to derisk.
There are rampers, there are clearly quite a few desperate to keeep this down, look at the last 10 posts alone.
Rhodi, what does it matter about the extra shares by 2020? What’s that another couple million shares at most? Or am I misunderstanding what your saying?
If not then your talking <1% dilution for those shares specifically, in the grand scheme of things it don’t matter. If I was in there position and was coming to the crunch point I would also want to make sure I am setup if results are good. Especially after 15yrs of work. (And this is not me backing management either, as I also think they look incompetent they way this has all been handled)
New to the board, been in FUM a while, however always read.
While I think people are getting carried away with £4 a share anytime soon, or even in future, unless results are amazing and we get bought. At the same time, I have invested in a few companies going in to ph3 over the years. This will rise a fair bit in percentage terms over the course of the year, simply because shares rise on expectation and anticipation of news. Simply if they get positive ph3 results, this will be worth a shit load of money, if it doesn’t do well it will fall. That’s what investing is, if price stayed like this until readout, everyone and there dog would be millionaires...it would be too easy. Investing and even life is about taking risks you can afford to live with.
There are countless examples, I was in Immupharma (IMM), they were at £1.50 prior to results in Q2/2018 and then fell to 10p on negative ph3 read out and so currently valued similar to FUM, who are still in ph3!
So this will rise over the course of the year, where to I am not sure but it will be a few multiples of today’s price, in anticipation for positive readout. If I had to guess I would say 50p prior to read out at end of year. (Don’t hold me to it).
Large pharma play dirty, let them. While FUM management are useless, we have the funds to complete the trial, and previous positive ph2 data/ other studies that show it has a chance of doing well.
It will be a bumpy ride, with other news as well, let’s just see what happens.
Good luck all