RE: 250p bid?6 Sep 2024 08:41
I wouldn’t be surprised by a take private at all, MM isn’t going anywhere and it is clear he hates the scrutiny that comes with being a plc, as well as being the “short termism” of plc markets and the impact that has on decision making.
THG SP is heavily discounted, the free float could easily be taken out at a premium and the 65% allowed to roll as MM requires.
Last year the terms/structure of the Apollo were onerous because the risk was higher, THG was haemorrhaging cash.
The restructuring is now done, the Group is cash flow neutral/positive, so any investment now taken on by the private equity backer would be going into investment as opposed to plugging a hole in to p&l.
IMO THG is ripe for a take private for 3-5 years, get some more scale into Ingenuity so it can stand on its own two feet and spin off nutrition and beauty along the way with Ingenuity contracts. Far better doing that process away from public markets in private hands. And a clear exit timeline/strategy for investors.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Apollo (or AN other) return with a successful bid now THG has stabilised an there is less risk to it, and of course debt markets becoming more favourable for refinancing