Member Info for Yesimabeliever

Agreed @osg, @philm

3 new deals for Ingenuity in the RNS, (including Hyrox & Wilko/Range, but no mention of it on call, or what it might do for Ingenuity numbers.

Lack of a decent “elevator pitch” on the Ingenuity demerger was embarrassing.

So in fact a call that should have been about Ingenuity, momentum, and the likely demerger, really became a the call became all about a small miss on nutrition.

As for how he handled the miss on nutrition, his delivery was bloomin awful. So many things he could have said about the new partnerships in Nutriotion, offline etc. Instead he focused on advent calendars! Schoolboy

@osg, the Wilko tie up was actually in yesterdays RNS, just MM didn’t mention it. He just decided it was more important to tell us advent calendars were selling well instead! 🤷‍♂️

It’s been said before, THGs investor relations/communication is hopeless. MM is awful at all it and It creates mistrust.

It’s a shame, as I genuinely think THG is doing some good things.

Anyway, hopefully he can get a sensible price for Ingenuity soon, we can get the re rate, and we can all move on!

I believe THG had their offering wrong previously, and were trying to sell a full solution ie 1) E-commerce & marketing 2) Fulfiment

It appears that there is more user friendly tech out there for Ecomm (Spotify etc), but Ingenuity’s warehouse management software in conjunction with Autostore robots appears to be a hit.

Note Fulfiment is tough to get right due to capex. Spotify gave up on it I believe.

THG won’t be giving away Ingenuity.

1. It was valued by Apollo 12 months ago at 60p per share+ and is in better shape now with some decent new client wins, and organic growth

2. It looks to me like Ingenuity is now world class high at volume D2C fulfiment, and has started winning clients with this narrower offering

There is a huge asset base in terms of tech, warehouses, robots, and the level of investment creates high barriers to entry.

Ingenuity has value, it just needs an investor who is able to fund on a 5-10 year view.

@brenchuk well done on predicting Ingenuity demerger.

Looking into your crystal ball again, what’s your view on consideration to with THG plc to get the deal done?

Or write before someone picks me up on it 😂

Qatar will right the cheque IMO.

2 routes forward here IMO:

Plan A

- MM gets Ingenuity away, big rerate of THG plc, we might see £3 depending on the terms of Ingenuity sale

Plan B

- Deal A proves too hard to do, and Apollo or AN other come along and take the group for £2, then break it up in 3-5 years

@100not out agreed. Interesting that the 65% think they can get a deal away for Ingenuity alone, and retain the value in Nutrition and Beauty. I’m think that might be tough, a buy out of the whole group looks easier to me.

agreed. btw whilst i thought mm was absolutely freakin’ useless yesterday, i have added this morning.

i may be mad, but this group is worth more than £2 imo and will get there eventually, and actually yesterdays **** show brought the end game nearer imo

Because not all of the 65% (or stakeholders as he described them) want to keep funding Ingenuity any more…Matt said that was clear from their “extensive stakeholder discussions”.

Hence the way the structuring the deal. Those that want in can roll into Ingenuity, the rest stay in THG, get the rerate in Beauty/Nutrition when Ingenuity is gone, and liquidity to get out at their leisure as THG still listed

The funny thing is, yesterday’s investor call really shouldn’t have been that challenging. It was very predictable the analysts areas of interest, but MM just waffled.

- trading in my protein a bit softer than we would have hoped for, but not a disaster (vs what was communicated at interims), yet MM gave zero data or confidence on the future post rebrand

- as for the pitch/detail re Ingenuity seperation, well he’s made it a negative rather than a positive by failing to convince. And they have been working on it for months.

Really really poor.

But THG is SO CHEAP. We know now that some of the 65% want out. Literally anything could happen now

Usually think there is a bit of a witch hunt on MM, but boy did he fluff his lines yesterday on the investor call IMO:

- failed to convince that nutrition will return to growth post rebrand. Where was the detail on all the partnership initiatives and what they are delivering, and what they are expected to deliver? Where was the detail on how offline is progressing? Failed to give investors confidence on imminent return to form post rebrand

- LSE transition barely mentioned, an after thought

- Ingenuity demerger. Again gave investors no detail or confidence it will be delivered, so has been immediately written off.

POOR

Who has said we are giving away Ingenuity? No one. Just that it is a longer term capital play and requires seperate funding.

The trading numbers aren’t the car crash people are saying on here.

Matt’s vagueness however on all matters nutrition, ingenuity spin off, and LSE rules weren’t cery impressive however.

Thanks crownan

Again cong, I think he is talking about II backers getting to roll. You aren’t going to have a private shareholder register with 1000’s of small PI’s. It would be unmanageable

I believe he meant long term II’s/family offices etc. can’t see how it would be achieved on scale with PI’s able to roll

I don’t believe PI’s will get any participation in Ingenuity? It’s getting taken private, THG plc will receive some consideration for the assets (how much is finger in the air but should be over £1 b) but Ingenuity will have rolling II’s and any new investors brought in, but no PI’s. Someone correct me if I am wrong

I don’t see £2 being a problem in the medium term, let alone £1.

In the short term THG will no doubt continue to be a wild ride!

The good news for PI’s with lowish averages is that the end game is nearer.

Some of the 65% want their money back. Demerging Ingenuity is clean for II’s who want out. Free of Ingenuity’s cash drain, £100m predictable cash flow in THG plc will see a big re rate and a sensible exit route for those II’s who want to sell down.

But literally anything could happen here now, if a bidder comes in with the right numbers for the whole or any of the parts, would imagine all are in play.

Similar thoughts to me @oohahh…Don’t see PI’s getting hosed on Ingenuity sale as I took today’s info as confirmation that not all of the 65% are rolling in. We’ll be aligned those that are staying in THG only, so will see “fair value”, whatever that is.

Market doesn’t seem to believe deal will happen. MM & Board have nailed their colours to the mast on this, so must have high confidence.

I’m not concerned on short term trading, It’s all about the ingenuity deal. A return to form in Nutrition post rebrand will see us over £3 😂