Member Info for y11-shx

Charlie how is that possible if you followed my trades for the last 2 years I have never made a loss?

I would have thought BP should have broken £5 by now maybe we’re trading down now and might not see over £5 for a while. Looking at Tesla with a massive up side maybe worth selling all BP for a quick 30 percent profit and then jump back in BP around the £4 mark in 10 weeks time after the two drops. One on the 16 Feb and the one on the 31 March.

Look like 160 is on the cards

Sell all your dark shat shares and buy Tesla you could double up or stay here and wait for 80p

Yes I agree moniman anything can be replaced with anything and will increase but the actual amount of oil been extracted from earth will always trend the same until we run out. Which was supposed to happen 50 years ago give or take 100 years.

I think the bear might turn up tomorrow 440 and I’m back in.

Moniman where ever you are pick any thing up. It made of a by product of oil. Oil can’t be replaced! Man I seen some dumb asses in my time but the end of oil. On your death bed in 20 or 50 years time it will still be the end of oil in the next 20 years.

I may be holding out for a lower price but the end of oil now that’s crazy talk!

No moniman. I’m just trying to work out how this will pan out and obviously get the best from my investment. But however if you look at it this way, there are less home owner with mortgages then without and the ones without have had to suffer no interest on there saving. So there is a argument that they are Subsidising peoples mortgages and now it time for that to change.

So lets look at the facts here. If you invested in Dark trace 1 month ago you would be 23 percent down, 6 months ago 22 percent down, 1 year ago wow 33 percent down (you could have literally got a 2 year old to pick there nose and wipe the boggie on a list of 100 shares and doubled your money) 5 years and your 18 percent down. You can clearly see this company at this value is still at least twice as expensive as it should be so another year and we should see 150 unfortunate.
I can see why the clown Cheapsharesboy like this dog.

Have a read of this it was published a few months ago but it goes to show how much changes in a few month and what we may expect moving. forward. https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/opinion/blog-parallels-with-the-30th-anniversary-of-black-wednesday/

Moniman I wish you were right but you are not. Interest rates should be around 3.5-6.5 percent for a normal healthy economy over the last 40 years average interest rates are around 7 percent. To have the interest rate at less the 2 percent does have its advantages but unfortunately it has created a massive debt bubble. The interest rate dont just need to go back to a normally level they now need to be higher.
Between Jan 2020 to Jan 2021 we had oil prices drop to $25 and then to counter act this between Jan 2022 to Jan 2023 we had oil rise to $125 Now oil is at a more normal level. This will also happen to interest rate between 1975 and 1995 we saw the same pattern, BoE interest rate went to 17 percent due to high inflation. Oil crisis around 1992 and the interest rate on the way down at 10 percent we saw "Black Wednesday" So what have we learnt? Between 1932 and 1951 we had very low interest rates below 2 percent.
So are interest rate over done the answer is NO and it looks like we have set ourselves up for a very similar economic condition as we did between 1975 and 1995. So thats why I personally see BoE rates at 10 percent. Its all here in black and white.https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/UK_interest_rate_since_1800.png

Problem is moniman we’re in a catch 22 situation. Inflation is at a all time high so everyone wants and need a pay rise. If everyone does inflation will continue to rise. Inflation has to be control with higher interest rates. The economy has a natural way to bring its self in line and unfortunately its a recession. If oil price go to $60 sooner the better It won’t be too bad. At $60 BP should be around £5 and paying dividends so will be a good investment mid term. BoE interest rates will go at least 6 percent so mortgages will be higher. I believe BoE rate will get at least this high due to strike action the unions aren’t happy with 10 percent pay rise back dated they want 20 percent and the problem is people have no self control and will continue to spend. More money in circulation on top of what was added during covid only equals one thing and that is huge inflations. So now we need to take some money out of the economy whilst give people more money. Catch 22 I’m afraid. So in my opinion Whether we like it or not higher interest rate are necessary evil.

I wish you luck Halma. Moving into a recession and BP at the high end of the chat the 10p upside your hoping for and the down side of 3.75 depending on how bad things actually get over the next two years give you a understanding why there had been a small sell off today. If the bear does actually turn up there will be a sharp drop similar to this morning between 8 and 9oclock but it will drop much greater. I do expect 400 sooner or later so on 6000 shares that would be a loss of 4.5k if you can expose your self to that risk that’s great. But a example of how a recession works is if you have a mortgage coming to the end in 6 months with a fixed rate of 1.69 percent and the go on to 7 percent that could be an extra 1k or more a month you need to find with out food going up and when saving run low people sell assets on the cheap pushing down prices even more. That’s how the rich get richer and the poor poorer. That’s why I expect a two year recession or at least 6 months and then 18 months very weak recovery as most people have a fixed two year mortgage and it will take this time to filter though. But that’s just my humble opinion.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we drop everyday this week. The problem is with confidence people add to there investment over time weeks months and years but when there is no confidence people don’t take there cash over a few week they take it all at once. Hence the saying the bull goes up the stairs the bear goes out the window. Oil will be the worst investment for the first half of the year unless played properly.

Yes I agree zac but don’t waste your time advertising long term investor if he disagrees say you dont know what your on about. I favour cash at the moment as in a recession cash is king and the best time to buy in 2/3 in so how long will this recession last is the big question I think between 2 and 3 years. In two years everyone will be paying about 6-7 percent if not higher on there mortgage and then you can pick up some nice bargains

Maybe not today but he’s coming and that is a fact

Didnt anyone get the memo. The bear coming I’m not sure if he’s here yet though.

As I explained earlier lth have another 6 weeks till ex div date. Holding oil stock going into a recession is very risky. But it easier to block new you don’t want to hear the listen to a balance option.

Has the bear arrived. Maybe maybe not. If bp drops to 450 then it has and 400 won’t be far away.