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Pharma Lilly just got a huge order/EUA for their Covid drug. Clearly the US Govt is pro-active in commissioning drugs and therapies for Covid. This is the field that Synairgen is playing on - yes we are a smaller pharma - but this is the field. And we are very close to the Americans - Synairgen is not just a small British outlier - it has been taken to the heart of the US through the ACTIV program. After Lily, Synairgen could well be next. And talk on Twitter about Omicron-Delta variant combination - surely this only accelerates this possibility. Looking very good for Monday or the near future.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/lilly-agreement-drug-us/

Manifesto
good point. lets keep it clear and positive to attract new investors.

OK. I read it.
I'm quietly staggered. But really - implications or whatever - its sat night. I look forwards to seeing what people have to say about this tomorrow.

sat night
can't be bothered to read the whole story. want to do something more poetic and fun instead.
but for those that are interested....

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-bebtelovimab-receives-emergency-use-authorization

At my gf's day job - a bank - they had to make their entire Russian dept redundant when sanctions meant they could no longer lend money to Russia. Apparently Russia has great oil, minerals etc - but rotting infrastructure and lack of finance means they can't get the resources/reserves out of the ground - which is what my partner's bank used to do. Thats all I can add to this debate.

Morning all. I'm sure everyone has a watch list - but I'm noticing that some pharmas on my watchlist for example AVIR that suffered a disaster with trials on their Covid drug are down 46%. Scancell down 26% (no major disaster here ,just down). . Sareum in my pf - depends when I bought the shares - but one tranche is down about 38% - but there's been no trial or test disaster. I remember buying Seres Therapeutics after a major wipeout failure when it sank 50% - I'm noticing big falls in pharma/biotech - the kind of falls that I associated with a disaster - yet there's no disaster - there's a shift in sentiment re Covid (and I am happy to bet against that) - but I think its more to do with interest rates, Ukraine, the Fed, slump/crash theories, inflation etc. But we shall see. Painful for the pf but also a buying opportunity at 30-40% discount and at some point the market will turn.

Pharma - I'll buy on the lows - in very small tranches - build up slowly and watch carefully.
https://www.ft.com/content/c90d17c6-6196-4c8a-88c2-e2cef9a692f2

that makes sense.
thanks for the post.

The recent hard science, I don't have time to post the links - but it was all shared here (I will repost later but I'm trying to make tea and serve roll-cake) - pointed to the potential use of interferon therapy at early stages of Covid infection - and we now have the US head of everything tweeting about interferon. Also there's the long-running hospitalized saga, going back to that first Lancet study, to Richard saying SNG is good for those who are 'poorly' - thats like 2 shots at the target - early stages intervention and also for the hospitalized. Which is what Davey Smith at Activ was saying about inhaled interferon's potential - sp should lift a bit really. Hard science/research backed up by the Americans, who are pretty sound on research and action and spending....this is looking hot.

sp on a low. I had these on a punt, sold them to get into HE1 - a good move at the time.
now...I think its time to do some quiet reading on scancell this weekend.

Thanks Ghia

I'm not too angsty about the hire theory - but it irritates what little rational, cold-blood I have left - more compelling for me is that recent Davey Smith conversation/film - that presented, to me, a much sounder investment case. The last couple of minutes are great. (Also something there about Jak/Stat pathways but that is for another comp).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmcKUWd0wks

re Synairgen adverting for new positions....

About a year or 18 months ago - my notes are hazy - RM was interviewed on Proactive...he said the following:

"We've got a confidence in what we are doing, that we will get aproval. We have to have that confidene..now is the time to start building inventory..."

And then he talks about buying materials/glass bits and pieces, production etc - so the game-plan has always been to act as if you have approval. My take on the 'hires' is that is a part of long-running, on-going process and can not be seen as an indicator regarding the contents of the Sprinter data. However this is the first pharma company I have invested in and if anyone has more experience than me and has seen other companies hiring policies as they move towards trial results....then bring that information on... because I would really like to be proved wrong here. Thank you.

Thanks. Good luck all.

"This new finding shows that no presently approved or authorized monoclonal antibody therapy could adequately cover all sublineages of the Omicron variant."

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.07.479306v1

We're getting very close to the end. If Reddit has some good material they haven't shared - it would be appreciated if you could do that. If you've already done that, fine. Thanks for all you've done. But Oak was suggesting there was material or debate that was very convincing - I'd love to get some hints. If there are a few additional scraps that haven't been pounced upon here recently, it would be appreciated. Thanks.

Doc83

Doc

How do we know they wouldn't be recruiting if the results were negative? Its a good question - if RM is sitting, right now, on negative results - what does he do? Thats a question I can't answer.

But with regards to recruitment - there must be some procedures they follow re recruiting - did the process must have started some weeks/months ago?. There must be some rules about what market sensitive information can or can't be revealed to third parties. And also why couldn't the recruitment have as much to do with Activ 2 results as Sprinter. These are questions I cannot answer. I really hope someone can!

the meaning of the new jobs/hires

does anyone posting have experience of working/investing in a pharma company on the edge of results to know how they manage the recruitment process. otherwise its just guesswork - for example I could 'guess' that the new hires relate as much to Activ 2 as to Sprinter. But wondered if anyone out there who has seen a company go through this could cast some light here. thanks.

But I'd hate for anyone to follow me and sell Syn and lose out. I'm not after huge profits at the moment, I'm just trying to keep my stake going so I can keep playing. I'm not one of those people investing to pay off the mortgage or retire - I 'm just playing for the sake of playing.

IV drugs - I think a bit clunky to administer, requires staff, hospital or clinic setting and also means infectious patient has to be in a hospital or clinic setting, causing further issues. Gilead working on a nebulised version of remdesivir - its benefits and use sounds very similar to Synairgen's aims re outpatient/at-home use. Put the drug in an inhaler, anyone can get it from the pharmacy and use it at home. See link below.

However if Synairgen get great results for hospitalized patients it could make Syn even more valuable - as the competition for hospitalized treatments keeps falling away. And that's what makes me OK about selling a few - if they win they are even more valuable, therefore I need less of them.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/gilead-inhaled-remdesivir-phasei/

Difficult to make a Covid drug that works for hospitalized patients. Makes me question the probability of Synairgen succeeding where Pfizer, GSK etc have failed. I think it is more likely Synairgen's drug will be licensed for use in non hospitalized patients- I would bet on Synairgen failing their own P3 but getting a good result for US Activ 2.

Sold a few today. Will sell a few tomorrow. Keeping a chunk back but should have bought Synairgen much earlier - then wouldn't have to torture myself so frequently .

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/pfizer-a-rare-covid-19-setback-dumps-paxlovid-s-intravenous-sibling-to-leave-activ-3-future

And because we're in Activ 2, I've never quite agreed with the 'this is binary' theory if results are not great for hospitalized patients. Synairgen might still do very well as an early stage treatment - which I think is the situation Brii are in - they failed on hospitalized but are applying for an EUA for non-hospitalized.