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I'm well out my depth on this discussion!
The only thing I have a feeling about is this is a very bad year in which to be raising money. I think a few AIM companies are keeping their heads down and waiting for interest rates to go down before they go to the market. Anyone who can tread water will be treading water - my 'idiot' theory is raise money to finish 1a then raise again in better times. But I haven't been following the ins and outs of 1/1ba and I have no idea if they can just stop at 1a without incurring any costs or issues.
How many of these do RFO have....from the RNS...its quite a lot. I must say its seems to be a very badly worded RNS - or maybe its just me, I struggle with the maths on this. I'm just gonna guess its a few £100K worth and will be quite a drag on the sp if they dump the shares. once again I can only hope that whoever comes in to do the placing will do a deal to buy the warrants. But I guess they'll impact/drag the sp a bit at some point whoever has them.
Warrants aside if we assume they are placing to finishing 1a and 1a only and get some working capital it might be a small placing - £500k to £1 million. The RFO facility was for a more ambitious £5 million to finish 1b. If they forget about that for the moment then perhaps we can look at 1a only and then do another placing or JV on the results. Or hibernate for a while - because by 2025 we might see more favorable markets.
From the RNS...
The Investors will also be granted a number of warrants equal to 45% of each deposit divided by the relevant Reference Price. The exercise price of the warrants payable to the Company will be a 40% premium to the relevant Reference Price (the "Warrant Price") and with a 48-month term ("Warrant Term"). Accordingly, RiverFort will be granted 879,094 warrants at the time of the First Deposit, exercisable at 143.33 pence each.
· Should the Company undertake a share placing during each relevant Warrant Term, the Warrant Price will be reset to the placing price if the resultant Warrant Price would be lower.
Tobethebest
Thanks for the reply. I hope HE1 aren't hiring/paying TMS - some of the more experienced traders I know see TMS as instant red flag re fundraise. So nothing happening here for ages? Be great if HE1 could surprise us with some surprising news. But the company should make sure they have enough £ tucked away for another drill - that would make sense (for them anyway). As to their finances....I haven't looked.
Loads of people I know say anything that Burton touches - avoid - usually means a raise is coming. I haven't been following HE1 for a while - sadly missed out on the huge rise - but I think we are waiting for autumn (?) for flow test results? They must do something between now and then - can they drill or is it 2 wet or something in Tanzania - and if they are going to drill do they have the £? Anyone know?
Lots of buys but sp plummets?
I've seen that a few times - usually means there's a huge chunk being off-loaded - RFO vomiting them out basically.
but I don't know. I can only guess. No doubt someone will fill us in.
and lots of small buys?
maybe buyers adding in small tranches - its not an unreasonable to add a few every time it drops a certain percentage.
Once RFO is out we move towards placing - obviously a bit mad if we see placees forwards selling into RFO's selling. So I presume that won't happen. Its RFO out. Then placing. And hopefully a better class of finance this time round. Warrants is another issue, I guess. Complex this one.
So the last placing was for the following:
"The net proceeds will be used further the development of oral gallium maltolate, the oral anti-tumour agent currently under study in the phase 1 trial, via an intermediate-sized expanded access program and other commercialization initiatives necessary to fully leverage the Fast Track Designation granted by the US FDA."
20 million shares - volume since March 1st ? Does it suggest they haven't been sold etc? And now we wait for the next placing for 'working capital'?
Anyone got any ideas of what's happening next? Anyway thought I would add a few as I felt it unlikely the company would want to rattle the placees...but...no idea about anything really.
Damn I missed that. which one is that?
I think 2024 is a terrible year for raising money. And 2025 could be better when some Govts return to some kind of QE - maybe via sleight of hand like yield curve control.
but the crisis...which one is that? thanks.
Waiting - could take longer. We just don't know. I can see the sense in waiting if it is about making the right move at the right time. I'm half amazed they are still going to be honest but watching and learning. And If they run low on cash? Polygon might issue CLNs or something similar at 3p?
Isn't this Riverfort selling? When this happens in other stocks people talk about 'disorderly selling'. So perhaps Riverfort are just going for it. Recklessly. They have their reasons. I would bet SAR are not pleased with them.
Every now and again the finite world produces an image so overwhelming in its potential vastness that it offers a glance or impression of the infinite. Like looking into a hall of mirrors. Similarly this afternoon it occurred to me that Andy and Sakura might be two seperate people.
Robin....
Its a tough time for pharma/biotech or many small comps. And SAR need to get into that 1b zone to produce data from humans. That's a common sense reading. Unless someone knows a lot about these kinds of compounds and see value here, at this stage. I'm not a pharma/bio PHD so I can't comment on that.
I'm pretty sure the maths for the shorters is a sub 10p stock. But I always like the possibility of a left-field play - and the maths for anyone trying to play guardian angel with seven figures plus - I imagine that maths is changing on a daily basis.
We shall see. Certainly post-placing there will be a flood of buys - but thats cold comfort, I imagine, if you are already underwater.
I wonder about the bucket shops. Yes that might happen. But it might not. They might have someone they can touch on. They managed to get some interest in 737 - so there are channels between SAR and £ (or in the case it was $?). See what happens. I do feel they are a bit cr*p - as many have said, why on earth didn't they raise when the sp was high - it makes sense to raise when you DON"T need the money - and I don't think enough AIM companies do that. Anyway lets see what happens next.
So...I haven't had time to watch the whole interview but the excerpt on X has Burt saying supportive shareholders and 'debt' - does that mean CLNs? And no ramping or deramping as yet on social - does that mean relevant parties are still talking numbers? Kind of temped to add a few but I suppose it is seriously unwise as the finance will be harsh.