Member Info for wyndrum

Steve, get off the fence, the aim is the same we want to make money, so forget CFD's etc.. buy now or not ,based on L2. Is it supporting a buy or should you wait?

firex: How would we know?

steve, this is it! you said: There has been a constant test on the lower price ranges via strangles on the order book. We seem to have bounced off 347 every time it has got near.

Honestly with the advent of ALGOS, I think MM'S can play even more games for even longer and can hide those games even better within normal trades. The messing around, especially on AIM is rampant.

So my question is, (genuine not a trick one or anything), knowing this, what do you do? Do you buy at about 351p because its all manipulated so its a false bottom, or do you wait for it to potentially go to 347p and buy? or if it does go (for the sake of argument) to 347p do you wait to see if it would fall further. Or, as its all being manipulated do nothing, in which case when do you know its not being manipulated.
Seriously I am open minded about this. I need to understand how to use it to help reduce the odds of me making a "bad "call,

well the 350p support has just about held having been under some pressure with a very quick spike to 348p and now sits comfortably mid 350's. So, imo would not buy until broken 360, (if you like a slightly riskier approach you could buy in 356/7)
RSI pattern inconclusive.
Again just to share my musings: when the SP was about 351p that's when they might have been a push by MM's to force it under into the 340's to see what the response would be and the price almost immediately came back up. So, in case others have missed it, I do think MM's can play games but it tends very brief and very much to be close to support resistance levels and not a constant onslaught. This may well happen too at 360p, in other words it could get close and the MM's falsely push it over to see how many buyers get sucked in and then it could fall back. False break outs are always possible.
Tricky game..

Don't know BHM, maybe they have better info or react to it much quicker? don't they all use algo's now anyway? All I know is that based on people who are using it here don't seem to be able to predict yesterdays' weather ….

Steve by all means persist with the analogy but try driving in any circumstance with 80% visibility and see how you get on. you would not be able to see traffic from either side, anyway, as I say if you think that analogy support your view, then I still remain to be convinced.

it does if I don't see the person stepping out in front of me? And your analogy makes my case, the 20% only vision could end up in a catastrophic accident.

steve, its not true I don't listen, its just your argument has not convinced me. I am not disputing anything you say about L2, but the amount of times you (to your credit I think) come back and say effectively the reverse happened of what you expected, makes me ask notwithstanding the interesting side of what you see, is how you can make money by using it?
There is appoint that I would argue (with a small a), and that is when you said: " . Yes it is guesswork as you have limited data, but just because the data is limited, does not mean you should just ignore it. " But yes, you should! if the data is incomplete then how can you draw any reliable information from it? Surely you can't? You say (and am sure you are), that you are in tech, well you must know that incomplete data is not remotely helpful in finding any solution to a problem.

(The cause of the drop has turned out to be the admission from Boo that they are concerned about short term future sales, higher returns) From HL "There are other near term headwinds. Returns fell substantially at the peak of the lockdown - and since then have started to rise. Since returns represent a straight forward loss, as well as being operationally complex, that will weigh on margins in the second half. The decline in global air traffic, and decline in shipping capacity, is also increasing the cost of delivering product to some of the group's overseas customers, impacting the profitability of growing global sales....It would be wrong not to sound a note of caution on valuation - which with a PE ratio of 44.5 times earnings is pretty eye-watering (if not far off the long term average). To justify that rating Boohoo needs to continue growing sales at its current breakneck speed and simultaneously improve margins. Boohoo has been able to meet it so far, but it's a big ask."

Steve, I agree my view is a simplistic one, but broadly speaking it is correct. Buys and sells, at some price, and at some point have to match up. Brokers make their money on the spread. Once they get into market manipulation it gets risky for them. It happens but its not as common (in my experience), as Pi's believe. However, whatever, the SP is the SP. You say its "unbelievable" and yet it has been around this price for quite a long time now.
You may not want a continuous argument but it is you that keeps posting forecasts based on L2 which then don't materialise. How do you ever profit from the info? if its unreliable, even if its manipulated, how can you profit from it?
Rather than get ****ed off with me, just answer the question? You said yesterday its guesswork? well, why then bother looking at it? I just don't understand, that's all.3
And also its quite clear now why the market pushed the SP down on the results.

Steve, without banging on about this (but you keep posting L2 stuff), how many times does it have to mislead you before you think it is an unreliable indicator?

BHM: It will be interesting to see this when the US markets open at 14:30

Why?

I agree Chris,
Personally I think understanding the emotional drivers of why people buy and sell is the single most important facet of making money on stock markets. Everything else is a by-product, which is why I don't worry about volume and L2 and most other indicators. The only indicator I find that does compliment the psychological process is the RSI.
So , for me, Charts (which are simply a graphical representation of peoples buying and selling actions) combined with the interpretation with the RSI, seems to work (for me) most of the time.

on the upside on the shorter time frame a break over 360p should then provide some sort of floor

it looks as though it will test the mid 320's (which is nearly another 10% from here). on a shorter time frame 351p is a support but if it breaks that then we are back to 325p give or take

Reading a lot of the posts recently it is clear that many here just like the fun of "playing the man and not the ball" in that much of the message of the post gets lost and a generally mild slanging match of many posters take place.
The claresmith thread was interesting to me because it is not relevant as to how "true" the poster is, but of more importance was to realise that Boo does not operate in a vacuum. There must be a number of similar companies trying to figure out how to either slow boo down or actually take some of their market share. It could be they have left it too late and equally it could be that boo are just better and will stay better at this than them, but it is inconceivable that they won't try harder now, now that shops are in what looks to be, terminal decline.
Again, a ridiculous and fruitless time is spent on looking at trades, how many bought, how many sold. Just realise that for every sell there is a buyer, so if someone sold 5m shares it also means someone bought 5m shares, and if you understand that, then you might understand the pointlessness of watching these trades? (I think that is step too far for most however. )And again fruitless inaccurate pointless predictions on where the SP will be at any given time. Why do you post these things? is it to reassure yourself or others, because if it is you do not have the mental strength or temperament to do this and you will simply over time lose money. (There, that is a prediction, and its one I am 100% confident will happen)

its a fair point for CS to raise, (I don't know if she is correct in the short term of Boo already having had their day in the sun), but as I have recognised previously, that of all the long term holds, a fast fashion company is probably the least attractive by natures of its product.
Certainly the figures to date still show extremely good growth but it is a fickle industry and the bigger brands obviously know about Boo and will be trying to get their hands on its market share.
And I have to say I am surprised that most here seem to think Xmas will be great. Do not any of you sense that high youth unemployment coupled with no where to go will not at least put a question mark over sales over the next 3-6 months?
I am not suggesting for a moment collapse or any sense of catastrophe, but again as I have noted previously, a high growth share like Boo has to over deliver every time or the shares get re-rated downwards. Please look at Fevertree as an absolute perfect example of a small insurgent well run company, breaking Scheppes Monopoly having had explosive growth with an SP to match and then see how long they have been off their all time high, while at the same continually increasing market share and increasing profits.

OP,

Here is a contrary view:
The lawsuit will "probably" fail because you are a class action Laywer with US experience in this field? and when you say probably do you mean 99% or 51% likelihood of failing?
Lack of future growth where maybe 10-20-% of Boo's customers may end up unemployed and the rest will have nowhere to go to show off their purchases. (Christmas has basically been cancelled in the UK and I guess other counties too) The argument that boo did well in the first lockdown (which it did) does not translate automatically to it happening again this time round.
Supply chain issues: I agree on the face of it but if it comes out that Boo did know about it but looked the other way then they may get negative fall out which may impact sales.
I don't think Boo will recover because Boo never faltered. THE sp is the issue and what others value boo at

steve, I have just about traded everything over different time frames in my life.
playing on margin is more stressfull then not and can lead to poor decision making (in hindsight), so now I only use my own funds.
I have a "system" that works presently, (nothing lasts forever).
But keys are capital preservation and always , before entering a position have an exit strategy and stick to it. No Gut feeling, no intuition, no hanging on for a couple of extra percent. Never fall in love with a stock. Always have a risk reward ratio that based on the individuals success means that you will, or should, beat the odds.
Mine is 3-1 I will risk 10p loss to expect at least a 30p gain, becuase if I do 3 trades I average 2 right and 1 wrong. If the individual has a higher failure rate then the risk reward needs to be higher, say 5-1, to compensate for the extra bad trades.
I am always amazed and indeed shocked when people buy a stock with no reasoned expectation of what profit it will make and no idea what price they would sell at if it went wrong.

Steve, I have no idea what caused this move. I thought the results yesterday justified at least a visit to last all time high.
hence why I have posted my thoughts on why this did not happen. As I keep saying unfortunately only one in a 1000 posts wanted to talk about that so none of us are any the wiser when this happens again.
As for volume, I don't use it as an indicator as when I have looked into it I see too many times when it gives contrary signals, plus you often hear of large trades being "off book".
I know market manipulation goes on, but my experience tells me that is when the SP is close to support/resistance level's and not 5-10% movements.
And finally if people do see this as a tree shake, or basically manipulation of the SP then you may ask yourself if its worth betting on any company in this index if its rigged?

max, I am not negative at all on Boo. I have been criticising this board and it's pointless and maybe to some damaging, forecasts, not the stock itself.
I have attempted to discuss Boo as a company but there was one taker and clearly almost no one wants to potentially learn more about how to value stocks or discuss FACTS.
Have you noticed the amount of posts regarding this as a tree shake? but only Streets mentions the possibility that there is more likely substance to this fall then simply Market manipulation. (Which for all those reading you will notice it is NEVER, NEVER, market manipulation when the stock goes up.)
That fact in itself should alert all to the dangerous bias to this (and other) BB's