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Quick technical analysis (TEK)

Trend & structure

Price remains in a clear rising channel.

Recent pullback has retested and respected the rising support trendline.

This is constructive behaviour, not weakness.

Pattern

The higher-timeframe chart shows a confirmed double bottom (W).

The neckline around 11–11.3p has been broken and is now being back-tested.

The recent move looks like a false break / shakeout, which is typical after a breakout.

Support & resistance

Immediate support: 11.0–11.3p (must hold)

Near resistance: 12.8–13.2p

Major resistance zone: 15–16p (clustered historical supply)

Momentum

Price is consolidating above prior resistance, which suggests absorption rather than distribution.

The structure remains higher lows / higher highs despite short-term volatility.

Bottom line

This looks like a healthy consolidation within an emerging uptrend, not a reversal lower.

As long as the 11p area holds, the technical bias remains towards a retest of recent highs and progression toward the 15–16p resistance zone.

Quiet, controlled price action here is exactly what you’d expect before the next leg, not after the move is finished.

Charts:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12AXekfMiPgzH3NpokvrMCCTe8l0QNIoxjFLNspCK61w/edit?usp=drivesdk

For anyone doing fresh research today, the situation is clearer than it was in 2019–2023.

portfolio is maturing

cost base is lower

NAV is improving

Guident IPO provides a clear valuation catalyst

The main difference now is that TEK is moving from a funding model to an execution/realisation model. The past cycle of frequent placings is not the same structural reality today.

If you want to research this properly, start here:

📌 TEK results & NAV updates:

Investegate TEK RNS results page

📌 Portfolio updates:

Investegate TEK announcements (MicroSalt, GenIP, Lucyd, Guident)

📌 Guident IPO filings:

SEC EDGAR (Guident S-1 + amendments + FWP)

Onwards and upwards

Past:

TEK’s early years were capital‑hungry. Discounted placings funded unlisted portfolio companies and repeatedly hit the SP – that history is exactly why the market still prices TEK the way it does.

Present:

The set‑up is now materially different. TEK has record NAV, much lower central costs, and four portfolio companies that are listed or listing and increasingly self‑funding. Recent raises were specifically to get Guident IPO‑ready, not to plug ongoing cash burn.

Future:

If Guident completes its Nasdaq IPO and repays TEK’s convertible, that’s cash coming back to TEK, not another call on shareholders. It doesn’t remove all risk (this is AIM), but it does change the funding model from structural dependence on placings to much greater optionality.

The market is still pricing TEK as if it’s the old model. The Guident IPO is the first real test of whether that deserves to change.

DYOR.

The pullback has been controlled and price is holding within the rising trend, not breaking it. This looks like a normal consolidation after the recent move, with higher lows still intact.

Volume remains healthy and any selling has been absorbed without losing structure. As long as the high-11s area continues to hold, the trend remains upward and a retest of the 13p/15/16p resistance zone stays technically valid.

This is how sustainable reversals usually progress - breakout, retest, then continuation - not straight-line moves.

I don’t disagree with you on the past – discounted raises have clearly hurt the SP before.

The only point I’m making is that the set‑up is not the same as it was: TEK now has record NAV, much lower central costs and four portfolio companies that can increasingly fund themselves. That doesn’t mean a placing can’t happen, just that it’s no longer a “given” in the way it once was.​

That’s exactly why risk management is part of the toolbox – position size, taking some profit into strength,stop losses etc – so any surprise placing doesn’t translate into a substantial portfolio hit.

As a shareholder, the practical stance is: assume placings are possible (this is AIM), but recognise that the structural need for them is much lower than in the past – especially if Guident gets away cleanly.

Historically TEK did tap the market after spikes, but the set‑up today is very different to the old days.

Four of the five core holdings are now listed or listing (MicroSalt, GenIP, Lucyd, Guident), so they can increasingly fund themselves instead of leaning on TEK’s balance sheet.​

TEK’s own numbers are much stronger: record net assets of $77.4m, portfolio value $68.8m, and profit after tax of $5.4m in H1‑25, with admin costs halved versus the prior year.​

Recent fundraises were explicitly to get Guident IPO‑ready; if Guident completes its $15m Nasdaq IPO and later repays Tek’s convertible, that should be cash back into TEK rather than another drain.​

Could they still place? Yes – this is AIM and management may still use equity for general working capital or a new opportunity, especially if Guident slipped. But the structural need to keep raising just to prop up the portfolio is much lower now than it was, which is exactly why the rerate debate around TEK is getting more interesting.

TEK chart update: 12p support, 15–16p resistance zone, and what to watch for next.

Let the structure now unfold into the potential of a full Rerate reversal.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12AXekfMiPgzH3NpokvrMCCTe8l0QNIoxjFLNspCK61w/edit?usp=drivesdk

Why the stock can run without a headline

Because the market has already priced in the narrative that:

The company is restructuring into a portfolio holding vehicle

The portfolio is delivering

Guident IPO is in progress

The chart is breaking out from a long base

This is exactly how reversals work:

The move happens first, the news follows.

That’s why the share price can run even without an RNS.

From past experience with genuine long-term reversals (e.g. GGP, RR), price typically repairs the full higher-timeframe structure before true price discovery begins. That usually means working back through the MAX chart resistance zones step by step rather than skipping levels.

If TEK’s current reversal is confirmed, that framework suggests upside is more about process than speed. Key levels still need to hold and be absorbed before any discussion of price discovery.

The broader autonomous landscape trend, highlighted in recent tech industry coverage and CES 2026 developments, continues to shift toward real-world deployment and AI-enabled self-driving systems. That macro narrative supports the sector’s structural growth thesis. In TEK’s case, if key levels hold and fundamental milestones like Guident progress are delivered, this remains a technically and strategically constructive setup.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/features/autonomous-vehicles-ces-2026-driverless-cars/

Guident has progressed through the S-1 and several amendments, and the FWP filing suggests the IPO process is moving into the marketing phase. However, there’s been no SEC effectiveness notice, pricing announcement, or RNS confirming a float date. Until those appear, a ‘tomorrow’ IPO isn’t confirmed.

For Guident to float, you would normally see one of the following:

SEC declares the S-1 “effective”

A pricing press release

A Form 424B with final pricing

An RNS from Tekcapital confirming the event

None of those have been disclosed publicly yet.

15p – why this zone matters

On the longer‑term chart, ~15p is the bottom of a prior resistance band, not the midpoint. It’s where we previously saw:

Distribution after sharp rallies.

Multiple failed highs.

The breakdown that led into the long decline.

That makes 15p a natural reaction area, even in a healthy move. If 12p can be held on closes, a grind higher into that 14.5–15p region looks technically very plausible, and it would be the first real test of whether this is a genuine trend reversal or just a range extension.

The ideal path from here is:

12–12.3p holds on the daily chart.

Price works through 13p rather than spiking and failing.

Momentum carries into 14.5–15p, where some pause/pullback would actually be constructive as prior supply is absorbed.

Nice to see TEK testing above the 12p level that was flagged previously as the first hurdle. We’ve now got the move; next step is seeing whether the price can hold this area and build a base, especially with Guident’s IPO still to come. Indecision candles here make sense – this is exactly where the market has to decide if TEK remains stuck in the old range, or starts a proper reversal as the portfolio keeps delivering.

Breakout mechanics:

Why this matters now

TEK has broken above the wedge resistance and is holding.

The move from ~9p to ~11.7p happened without volume climax.

That means this is not the blow-off move - it’s the setup.

➡️ The real expansion usually comes after the first resistance flip.

What confirms continuation

Technically, bulls want to see:

A daily close above ~12p

Follow-through with volume expansion

Former resistance (~10.5–11p) holding as support

If that happens:

Next technical magnet is 15–16p

Beyond that, the chart opens rapidly toward 20p+, where there’s very little historical supply.

Big picture takeaway:

This is not a speculative spike

This is a coiled structure resolving upward,

The chart supports a multi-week to multi-month move, not a day trade.

TEK is transitioning from accumulation to expansion.

The trigger is technical - the fuel is fundamental.

Technical Chart

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12AXekfMiPgzH3NpokvrMCCTe8l0QNIoxjFLNspCK61w/edit?usp=drivesdk

Tekcapital’s portfolio is already re-pricing beneath the surface. Once Guident lists, the market will have a live valuation for a major asset - and history shows it’s only a matter of time before a holding company is pulled up toward the value of what it owns.

Guident’s IPO doesn’t create Tekcapital’s value - it reveals it. As public market valuations emerge across the portfolio, the gap between TEK’s share price and the assets it holds becomes increasingly difficult to justify.

Guident’s IPO is the moment Tekcapital stops being a story and starts being a set of market prices. When assets are valued in public, the owner eventually has to follow

MicroSalt itself and, by extension, very supportive for Tekcapital’s NAV story, given Tek’s large stake.

What the MicroSalt RNS is telling you

FY25 unaudited revenue came in at $2.14m vs $0.745m in 2024 – that is +287% year‑on‑year and ahead of the company’s original $2.0m target.​

Management is now guiding to $7.0m revenue in 2026 and “more than $15.0m” in 2027, and these numbers are explicitly said to be based on in‑hand volume estimations and the current customer base (i.e. not blue‑sky).​

The update reiterates the importance of “Customer 3”, one of the world’s largest food, soft drink and snack manufacturers, where MicroSalt has already shipped the first bulk order for a new product due to launch from Q2 2026, with repeat orders broadly monthly since – consistent with the earlier November guidance upgrade.​

Why this matters so much to Tekcapital

Tekcapital holds c. 77% of MicroSalt plc as per the AIM admission RNS (33.3m SALT shares at IPO), plus warrants; that stake alone was worth ~£14.3m at 43p on admission, and has been estimated at around £26m when SALT traded higher – materially more than Tekcapital’s current market cap on its own.​

The new trading numbers (actual $2.14m in 2025 and guided $7m/$15m for 2026/27) underpin the idea that MicroSalt is now a real, scaling B2B ingredient business with line‑of‑sight to material revenue, rather than just a concept with a patent and a crisps brand.​

How this feeds into the TEK rerate story

For TEK’s portfolio, Guident provides the high‑beta “AI/AV and Nasdaq IPO” upside, while MicroSalt provides a more traditional growth‑SME underpin with visible top‑line traction and a huge strategic partner already on board.​

Taken together, the latest MicroSalt RNS plus Guident’s live IPO marketing deck strengthen the argument that two of Tekcapital’s largest holdings now have clear, external validation:

MicroSalt via strong revenue growth and public market valuation on AIM.​

Guident via the S‑1/A terms and the January 2026 investor presentation filed as an FWP for the planned $15m Nasdaq IPO.​

In short, this MicroSalt update is exactly what you want to see as a TEK holder: one of the key assets is over‑delivering vs prior targets and guiding aggressively higher, at a time when Guident is simultaneously advancing its own IPO. It tightens the fundamental case that Tekcapital’s look‑through portfolio value is well above the current TEK market cap, even before any Guident rerate arrives.

For clarity, nothing I’ve posted is based on fantasy – it’s based on the published S‑1/A terms, Guident’s ownership structure and broker‑published NAV work on Tekcapital.

Short‑term, it’s perfectly reasonable to think TEK gravitates towards NAV if Guident lists successfully and trades sensibly – that’s how holding‑company discounts typically start to close. Longer term, the market will decide whether TEK deserves to trade near, above, or below NAV depending on execution.

Happy for people to disagree on the numbers or the timing, but not interested in trading insults. Everyone can make up their own mind.

Given the latest Guident filings and the free writing prospectus now out, it feels realistic to think of any Tekcapital rerate happening in stages, not in one jump.

On a conservative view, a first-leg rerate into the mid–high teens looks like a sensible marker for stage one – that’s the area where:

Guident is listed and trading on Nasdaq with a visible equity value.

Brokers refresh NAV work and show Tek’s majority stake in Guident against TEK’s current £20–25m market cap.

The market starts to close the most “obvious” part of the discount without needing blue‑sky assumptions.

Beyond that, if Guident executes well post‑IPO, the convertible is addressed and the rest of the portfolio gets more credit, TEK can move from a simple catch‑up move into a price discovery phase, where the market decides what level of holding‑company discount is justified over the medium term rather than just assuming today’s stagnation is fair value.

Rerating in a case like Tekcapital is almost always a multi‑stage, multi‑month process rather than a quick, clean jump, even if Guident’s IPO goes well.​

Likely stages and timing

Stage 1 – IPO & “first look” (days–2 weeks)

Guident prices and starts trading; the market gets a hard equity value for GDNT.​

TEK can start to move almost immediately, but this is usually noisy: traders in/out, US tech sentiment, Nasdaq volatility etc.

Stage 2 – NAV updates & early discount compression (1–3 months)

Brokers publish updated NAV and price targets explicitly feeding in Guident’s live market cap.​

Institutions and NAV‑driven investors begin to rotate in, and the “unsustainable” discount to NAV starts to narrow from current levels towards something closer to sector norms.​

This is when a big chunk of the rerate (say, from c. 9–10p into low‑/mid‑teens if things go well) is most likely to occur.​

Stage 3 – Full rerate / new equilibrium (6–18 months)

The market digests:

Guident’s execution as a listed company (contracts, growth, margins).​

Any cash inflows / de‑risking at TEK (e.g. Guident repaying the convertible).​

How the rest of the portfolio performs and is marked.​

Over 6–18 months, the holding‑company discount typically stabilises at whatever level the market thinks TEK “deserves” – maybe 20–35% if sentiment is decent, maybe wider if UK small caps stay hated.​

What is “most likely” for a full rerate

Initial rerate leg: within weeks to a few months of a successful Guident IPO, as NAV work is refreshed and the obvious disconnect closes part‑way.​

Full rerate to a new steady‑state discount: more like 6–12 months, potentially up to 18 months if markets are choppy or Guident’s post‑IPO story takes time to prove out.​

So any rerate is very likely to come in stages: a faster “recognition phase” after IPO, then a slower grind as the discount to NAV compresses to a more normal level over the following year or so, assuming Guident and the wider portfolio deliver.

(Not financial advice just my take on what I see happening, please do your own research DD ✍️)

Once Guident prices, TEK stops being a “story stock” and becomes a holding company with multiple listed and near‑listed assets that you can mark to screen – with a possible special dividend on the table as well.​

TEK – Portfolio rerate coming, not just a Guident punt

Guident’s Nasdaq IPO terms are now public (GDNT, $4–$5 range, c.9.7m shares post‑offering), which should crystallise a multi‑tens‑of‑millions USD stake for TEK once it lists, even after final dilution is known. That gives you a clean, quoted value for one of TEK’s largest holdings instead of a modelled number.​

But the key for me is that TEK’s value doesn’t start and end with Guident:

Microsalt is already shown as the largest single NAV line in TEK’s own investor materials, and that was before any uplift from recent commercial progress.​

Innovative Eyewear (LUCY) has just reported FY 2025 sales of ~$2.7m, up ~65% YoY, with an estimated 44% Amazon smart safety glasses share, and TEK owns 259,455 LUCY shares (~10%), so that growth now feeds directly into the portfolio.​

The rest of the book (Belluscura, Salarius etc.) plus cash/debt already supported a $60–70m+ portfolio value in mid‑2025, well above the current market cap.​

Analysts have already flagged a “highly likely” rerating on Guident’s IPO and have discussed the potential for a special/super dividend if TEK chooses to return part of any monetised stake to shareholders once Guident is trading and more liquid. That would be on top of any NAV uplift and could itself be a catalyst for closing the discount.​

So post‑IPO, the way to look at TEK (in my view) is:

Guident: majority stake at live GDNT price.

Microsalt: biggest NAV contributor.

LUCY: US‑listed, 65% growth and management signalling confidence.

Other portfolio + cash/debt: additional upside and optionality.

All of that is still wrapped in a UK vehicle which, pre‑IPO, has been trading on a deep discount to its last reported NAV. The Guident float isn’t the end of the story – it’s the moment the market is forced to revalue the whole portfolio, with the added kicker that TEK may choose to share some of that value directly via a special dividend once the dust settles.