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Post-IPO, the true value and long-term growth will start to become evident, and those who are fixated on short-term fluctuations will likely see how far off they were from the bigger picture.

I have laid the groundwork by presenting the long-term strategy, monetisation, and compounding potential. Once these factors come into play, it will speak for itself, and the value will become undeniable.

For those watching Guident’s IPO, the key question isn’t today’s profitability, it’s the long‑term monetisation path. The IPO is the crystallisation event that puts a clear market value on Tekcapital’s largest private holding and unlocks more strategic options for shareholders. We’re still early in a multi‑year value‑creation story – as more portfolio companies trade publicly, Tek has increasing flexibility to monetise stakes, recycle capital and, over time, drive both NAV growth and shareholder returns.

A listed Guident, alongside an already‑listed MicroSalt, Lucyd/Innovative Eyewear on Nasdaq and spun‑out GenIP, gives Tekcapital something it hasn’t really had before: multiple, proven cash‑generation options across its portfolio. Over time these listed assets can help fund organic growth, allow Tek to reinvest into new innovations and, when conditions are right, support special returns to shareholders. Guident’s IPO isn’t the end of the story – it’s the next step in a long‑term value‑creation strategy built around monetising and compounding several public holdings, not just one.

For anyone watching the Guident timeline, the key isn’t message‑board guesses, it’s how long their current financials can be used in the S‑1. Guident is highly incentivised to get the SEC to declare the registration effective while its 9‑month 2025 numbers are still ‘fresh’ under the SEC’s age‑of‑financials rules – once those go stale, they’d need to update the filing again, which risks pushing the IPO back by months.

That’s why February is such an important month: either we see effectiveness and progress towards pricing, or the process likely stretches while new financials are pulled in and re‑reviewed. Nobody on this board can give a guaranteed date, but the filings themselves tell you Guident has every reason to move as soon as the SEC review allows.

Everything you’ve seen so far with Tekcapital is just the tip of the iceberg. The Guident IPO will set things in motion, but the bigger plays are further down the road.

Watch for the next steps - the best is yet to come, and I think a few will be left wondering how they missed it.

Tek’s future is far from fully written. The next few months will reveal just how big the picture really is. Sometimes the quietest moves make the loudest noise.

In my experience, traders who anchor on short‑term noise or let fear and anger drive their decisions rarely come out ahead. Successful investing is about stepping back, understanding long‑term value and taking emotion out of the equation. Markets will always fluctuate, sentiment will always swing, but it’s the ability to stay disciplined, focus on fundamentals and avoid reacting to every wobble that separates those who compound real returns from those who keep missing the bigger opportunities.

The current price is already set up for the ‘everything goes wrong’ scenario – Guident disappoints, MicroSalt stalls and nothing else in the portfolio fires. If even one or two of those assumptions prove too pessimistic, reality will be better than the market’s very low bar, and that’s where any rerate comes from. I’ll leave it at that.

Of course there’s risk here – IPO markets, execution, sector sentiment – that’s why Tek still trades on such a steep discount to a US$70m+ NAV. But today’s price effectively assumes Guident disappoints, MicroSalt stalls and the rest of the portfolio never really fires, all at once. I don’t need perfection for a rerate; I just need the reality to be better than that very low bar.

The interesting part now is the setup. Tek’s NAV is already at a record US$77.4m, with operating costs cut and multiple portfolio companies either listed or queued. Guident doesn’t have to be perfect – it just has to get away at a sensible valuation for a market‑visible rerate case to open up.

Nobody on here – bull or bear – can give a guaranteed Guident IPO date. US IPOs clear when the SEC review is done and the underwriters are happy with market conditions, not when message boards demand it. The only facts that matter are that Guident has filed and updated its S‑1 and Tek has flagged a proposed US listing in multiple RNSs – that’s the pipeline, not rumour.

SP Angel calls a Guident-driven rerate ‘highly likely,’ with a 15p target before any NAV uplift from the IPO. Armchair Trader describes it as a ‘potential windfall’ for Tek, and Guident sees Nasdaq as its natural home. With Tek’s record NAV and a leaner cost base, the market’s current valuation looks more like neglect than informed pricing. The disconnect between price and value won’t last forever.

Tek isn’t a one‑shot Guident trade; it’s a NAV flywheel. MicroSalt listing, Guident listing, cost base cut, portfolio NAV at record highs – all of that means Tek can start funding itself from portfolio wins instead of constant dilution. Each successful exit/listing makes the next one easier and accelerates the compounding.

Some are staring at today’s Tek price; I’m looking at the time spread. Tek has grown NAV from c.$33m in 2020 to c.$77m by mid‑2025 (~19% CAGR) while the share price has gone nowhere and the discount has widened. That gap isn’t a verdict, it’s a time lag – and Guident’s IPO is the catalyst that closes it for anyone willing to hold through the ‘boring’ part.

I’ve seen the comments. Most are rooted in the pain of the past, not the math of the future. As the saying goes: The stock market is the only market where people run out of the store when there's a sale.

I’ve laid out the full forward-looking research on Tekcapital’s portfolio, the monetization, and the compounding effect. It’s long because the value is deep.

If you want to move beyond opinion and into data, click my profile, where you'll find past research posts.

I’m not here to argue with feelings; I’m here to provide the research the market hasn't priced in yet.

My research on the LSE board isn't about tomorrow's opening bell; it’s about the monetization architecture of Tekcapital. If you’re trading on anger, you’re using a calculator. If you want to see the rerate, you need the telescope 🔭

The Guident IPO is coming, and it’s not just another 'pie in the sky' – it’s real, and it’s going to reshape how we value Tekcapital. Now that the SEC is back in office (as of today!), it's time to trade in the fantasies for some real numbers. Spoiler alert: the bears won’t like the ending! 🏛️🔓👾🎥

It’s just my rough allowance for net cash plus the remaining smaller IP interests that aren’t Microsalt/Guident/GenIP/Lucyd. It’s an estimate, not an RNS number, which is why I’ve also quoted the US$77.4m / 26p H1 NAV as the firm historic figure.

That’s as far as I’m going to take it here – it’s just my own forward estimate on top of the published 26p NAV. Happy for others to run their own numbers

Cash & other IP is my rounded estimate of what’s left once you strip out MicroSalt, Guident, GenIP and Lucyd separately – it’s part of a forward SOTP projection, not a replacement for the H1 book NAV. The only hard historic figure is the US$77.4m NAV (~26p/share) in the half‑year report.

The Guident IPO numbers keep bouncing around – classic echo chamber, with third‑party sites recycling partial or outdated terms. Until the next S‑1/A and final pricing drop, it’s all just noise, but very amusing and not seen until now.

Funny watching Google/IPO calendars change Guident’s range and deal size by the hour – just a reminder that nothing is real until the next S‑1/A and the final pricing. Something’s clearly cooking, but the filings and post‑IPO trading will give us the only numbers that matter.

Why it matters:

Guident’s IPO should crystallize value in Tekcapital’s ~70% economic interest, providing Tekcapital with a visible external catalyst. With an early–mid February window now appearing on IPO calendars and news outlets, this is finally on the radar of event-driven investors - not just existing holders.

All Eyes Now On The Gatekeeper (SEC)