Member Info for wozzer70

The S&P500 is trading in the extended/overbought zone which had caused stocks worldwide to start off on the back foot today.

It's recovering slightly, but needs to trade off sideways or pullback to re-align and put it back in to the "safety zone", between each show trendline.

Tekcapital structure is still currently Locked in, currently at key support.

S&P500 - Tale of the tape

https://docs.google.com/document/d/15P-JlCSysN5VREJ9sEHziaMdTo51OshUlAGzCtMB1Jg/edit?usp=drivesdk

How an IPO's final value is decided. It's more than just the $17m they're raising.

1. What's the target valuation?

The S-1/A filing from October gives us a price range of $7.80 to $9.80 per share.

This range, combined with the total number of shares Guident will have (including converted loans), led to the market cap estimate of around $45m (or $51m depending on the source).

The market cap is the total value of the company, not just the money being raised.

2. Why isn't this the final value?

The final price isn't set yet. That's what the Roadshow and Book-building are for.

Roadshow: Guident management is meeting with big investors to get them excited about the company. Think of it as a series of important meetings to sell the story.

Book-building: The investment bankers gather all the price and share demand from these big investors. They literally build a "book" of interest to see what the market will bear.

Final Price: Just before the IPO goes live, they look at that "book" of demand and agree on the final share price. It's often decided just the night before, based on what the market is willing to pay.

3. What about the share price after the IPO?

Some IPOs see a price "pop" on the first day. This happens because the underwriters priced it to sell well.

But nothing is guaranteed. The market sentiment on the day and beyond will determine the long-term share price.

So, we wait for the outcome of the roadshow and book-building process to find out the final initial value.

In summary: The $45-50m is a very strong estimate based on the S-1, but the final value will be confirmed right before the IPO goes live based on demand. So, your estimate is not far off, but the price isn't set in stone yet.

As always, do your

GGG:

Thanks for sharing this summary from the S-1/A filing. It's helpful to see the deal structure laid out. The figures from the filing regarding the number of shares and the price range are correct.

However, it's important to remember that the implied market cap of around $43-45 million is a calculated estimate, not a final, confirmed valuation. The actual market cap will be determined by investor demand and market conditions on the day of the IPO. For context, Renaissance Capital's analysis of the same filing calculates a slightly higher fully diluted market value of $51 million at the midpoint of the price range.

As you noted, the initial deal size is on the smaller side, and that can sometimes lead to market wobbles. While the potential for future growth is there, as the post mentions, the market's reaction on the day is still to be seen. The roadshow details are private, so we won't know how it went until pricing is announced. As always with IPOs, there are no certainties, and long-term success is about execution, not just initial hype.

GGG:

No, a total IPO valuation of $45–50 million for Guident is not a confirmed figure from the SEC filings. This is likely analyst speculation based on potential scenarios for the company. The roadshow status is not publicly known, as these details are typically kept private during the SEC review process.

Guident total valuation

Targeted raise vs. company valuation: The S-1 filing indicates a target to raise up to $17 million in the IPO, not a total company valuation. The $45–50 million figure is most likely an estimate of what the company's total market capitalization could be upon listing, but this depends on investor demand and final pricing.

Valuation will be set later: The S-1 filing explicitly states that the number of shares to be sold and the price range have not been determined and will be set after the SEC review is complete.

Analyst speculation: Some investors and market commentators have speculated that a $50 million listing valuation is feasible, which would give Tekcapital's 70% stake a significant boost.

IPO timeline

Potential timeline: Your assumption that the IPO could occur in early to mid-November is reasonable, but it depends on the SEC's review and market conditions. The typical timeline is 4–8 weeks after the public S-1 filing, which was in mid-September.

SEC process: The timing can still be affected by any further SEC comments or required amendments, which can cause delays.

Roadshow status

Not a public process: The roadshow is part of the investor education and marketing process for the IPO and is not conducted publicly. The performance of the roadshow will be reflected in the final IPO pricing and allocation of shares.

Confirmation with pricing: The results of the roadshow, including investor demand, are used to set the final IPO price. The conclusion of the roadshow will not be publicly announced, but the offering will be officially priced shortly before the shares start trading.

GGG: What I found to your last question, you may also wish to carry out your own DD ✍️ to confirm.

While we cannot definitively predict the IPO timeline, the current information suggests a potential listing between mid-October and mid-November 2025, but this is subject to further SEC action and market conditions. Details regarding the roadshow's outcome are not yet public, and the track record of the joint bookrunners, Prime Number Capital and Dominari Securities, would need individual research.

Guident IPO timeline and amendments

Waiting for SEC clearance: A potential wait of another month is realistic, and possibly longer. The timing of the IPO depends on the completion of the SEC review process.

Potential for further amendments: The SEC may have additional comments or questions that require further amendments to the S-1 registration statement. Each time a "pre-effective amendment" that changes the price range is filed, it restarts a 20-day countdown before the registration statement can automatically become effective.

IPO valuation

Initial filing range: The S-1 filing submitted in September 2025 indicated Guident was targeting a raise of up to $17 million, not $45-50 million.

Analyst speculation: The higher figures for Guident's market cap ($50M+) are estimates from analysts, reflecting what the valuation could be, not a confirmed price.

Roadshow performance

Private information: Details about the IPO roadshow, where management meets with institutional investors to gauge interest, are not publicly disclosed. Guident will not release details of investor meetings while the SEC review is ongoing and until the final offering is priced.

Investment banks

Joint Bookrunners: According to the S-1 filing, the joint bookrunners for the IPO are Prime Number Capital and Dominari Securities.

Track record evaluation: An evaluation of their recent IPO track record would require a separate, deeper analysis of their past deals and performance. This is not publicly available through Tekcapital or Guident's filings.

GGG:

Initial Confidential Filing: Guident first filed its S-1 registration statement confidentially with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 9, 2025.

Public Filing and Confirmation: The filing was officially made public and confirmed by Tekcapital on September 18, 2025. This means Guident has been working through the SEC's comments and review process for several months.

Updated Filing: An amended S-1 filing was submitted on October 6, 2025, which further advanced the process.

Primary SEC filings

Initial S-1 Registration Statement (Public Filing): This is the original public filing made by Guident.

Link: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2066926/000182912625007461/0001829126-25-007461-index.htm

Amended S-1 Registration Statement (October 6, 2025): This is the updated filing that provides the most recent information.

Link: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2066926/000182912625007901/0001829126-25-007901-index.htm

Related announcements

Tekcapital RNS Announcement (September 18, 2025): This is the official announcement from Tekcapital to the London Stock Exchange confirming the public S-1 filing.

Link: https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/tekcapital--tek/portfolio-company-update-guident-proposed-us-ipo/9115260

Guident Free Writing Prospectus (October 7, 2025): This link provides the presentation filed by Guident.

Link: https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form++FWP++++++++Guident+Corp.++++++++++++++++++++++++++Filed+by%3A+Guident+Corp./25430793.html

Here is a breakdown of the outlook for each of the companies under the Tekcapital umbrella.

(My Opinion, Not Financial Advice)

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NfeFo0lfYAmzt_H1P9O2bdKEEPfCUnn29DjJHWUiZQc/edit?usp=drivesdk

GGG:

There’s no confirmed date yet, but the process appears to be in the advanced stages. Typically, once filings and initial documentation are finalised, listings of this nature tend to complete within a few weeks to a couple of months, though timing ultimately depends on market conditions and regulatory clearance.

Given Guident’s recent momentum and the strategic relevance to Tekcapital’s portfolio, it does look like we’re moving closer to that stage.

Price consolidating just under key neckline resistance, exactly what you want to see before a potential breakout. Structure remains intact, fundamentals remain aligned, and the catalysts are still in motion.

Compression continues to tighten, when value, volume and visibility converge, momentum follows.

Just need that spark now 🧨

All engines primed - multiple forces now converging across Tekcapital’s core holdings. Guidant nearing ignition, MicroSalt advancing at pace, and the chart structure tightening in synchrony. The setup is poised… all aboard before ignition. 🧨

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12AXekfMiPgzH3NpokvrMCCTe8l0QNIoxjFLNspCK61w/edit?usp=drivesdk

The lack of a named investor isn’t uncommon in minor fundraises, especially if it’s an existing institutional or accredited party who requested confidentiality.

£370k may look small, but in the context of Tek’s stage and timing, it’s enough to bridge operational runway ahead of a catalyst (likely Guidant). That in itself hints that larger capital events are already lining up.

Governance risk is always valid to question, but recent moves, from the orderly structure of this placing to the clear progress across the portfolio, suggest a tightening of discipline rather than a repeat of the past.

If the upcoming corporate actions validate that, the market’s risk discount should begin to unwind.

I’ll keep this simple, the fundamentals speak for themselves.

Tekcapital’s portfolio is made up of companies now transitioning from concept to commercialisation, MicroSalt heading toward global distribution, Guident nearing its IPO, and Innovative Eyewear expanding through new partnerships etc

Whether one agrees or not, these are the exact catalysts that tend to trigger value unlocks. The market hasn’t priced that in yet, but structures, both technically and fundamentally, are aligning for that shift.

Everyone’s entitled to their view, but I’ll continue focusing on data, not noise and insults, now reported.

We broke out of the wedge a few weeks back, but with low volume and key resistance levels still in play, price action has remained relatively stagnant.

Progress can still be seen though, the stock appears to have broken through the first of four necklines. Completing all four would bring us toward the 15p region, with resistance then stepping up through single levels until around 35p, where multiple layers await.

Reversal structures, once in motion, tend to complete if the fundamentals align. With all Tekcapital’s drivers now beginning to converge, this could be the early stage of a broader reversal and rerate across the group.

Chart

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12AXekfMiPgzH3NpokvrMCCTe8l0QNIoxjFLNspCK61w/edit?usp=drivesdk

The value unlock I believe is imminent: Tekcapital's strategy has been to incubate and develop high-potential portfolio companies like MicroSalt®, Innovative Eyewear, and Guident. The market has historically valued TEK as a holding company, but the pending IPO and growth of these subsidiaries is set to unlock their individual value, providing a significant re-rating event for the parent company.

Guident and Innovative Eyewear: Both are generating substantial news flow and strategic progress. As their respective market shares and valuations grow, the sum-of-the-parts valuation for TEK will soon become impossible for the market to ignore.

The market has been waiting for the stars to align. The technology was a promise, the strategy was a plan, and the technicals were a waiting game. Today, the technicals confirm the story. The portfolio is delivering on its promise and the strategic vision is expanding. The three core elements: technical, fundamental, and strategic, are no longer independent lines on a chart. They are now one single, convergent force. The long consolidation is almost over. The true story is ready to be told. 📖💥

Yesterday’s small placing wasn’t a cash grab it was a strategic move. An existing investor wanted a larger position ahead of key catalysts like the Guidant IPO. Rather than buy on the open market and move the price, they subscribed directly at market rate (10.5p). It adds a little liquidity, costs nothing in sentiment, and shows confidence from someone already close to the story. Simple as that.

This quiet spell feels like the calm before the storm. Price holding firm, structure intact, and catalysts lining up. When momentum returns, it could move fast, patience here could prove golden. 💥

Tekcapital’s been sitting quietly between 10p and 11p — but this isn’t weakness, it’s pressure building. The chart’s coiling tighter by the day, and history tells us what usually follows.

The last time we saw this kind of compression was back in 2021… right before TEK exploded from single digits into the mid-30s. We’re seeing the same setup again: higher lows, firm base, and repeated hits on resistance without a breakdown.

Guidant news is now on the horizon — and that could be the trigger. Once this range gives way, there’s very little overhead until 13p–15p-17p, and beyond that, the structure opens right up.

Momentum is quietly shifting. Don’t mistake silence for weakness — this is the calm before the move.

Stas20:

I’ve got zero interest in your narrative, but clearly mine touches a nerve with you. The block button’s there for a reason, don’t be shy. Off you pop 💥

Stas20

I didn’t overcomplicate anything, I just broke down the same points you’ve mentioned in a structured way for those who prefer a clearer explanation.

We’re actually saying the same thing, just with different styles.

I’ll leave you and your AI companion to it though, seems you’ve got that side covered 😉

If you strip it down, here’s the likely logic behind it 👇

1. It’s not a discount placing — that’s key.

The shares were issued at 10.5p, the same as the market price. That tells us this isn’t a “dump to raise cash” situation, but rather a targeted top-up from an existing investor who wanted more exposure. It’s actually a vote of confidence — not a dilution in the usual desperate sense.

2. The amount raised is small and strategic.

pocket change for a listed company. This looks more like bridge funding — topping up liquidity ahead of the Guidant IPO or other operational milestones, without leaning on debt.

3. Timing may seem odd, but it can strengthen momentum.

If that investor is someone already close to the business (which is likely), this placing could reflect internal conviction that things are lining up positively. Sometimes, companies raise small sums just before a catalyst — ensuring they have runway for marketing, filings, or minor expenses tied to upcoming IPOs.

4. Technically — this doesn’t break the structure.

At 10.5p, this sits right on resistance but doesn’t weaken the chart. If anything, it sets a price floor and strengthens support. The risk would’ve been if they discounted it to 8p or 9p — they didn’t.