Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
NEX ownership is rather like “how to withstand long term boredom” at the moment ;-)
Apologies was a link someone posted and was out of date; scrap that! Wondered why wasn’t on the calendar...
Anyone know the time that today’s update is due?
As said below there are risks due to volatility. I use them but I tend to set them far enough below the previous closing price, such that it would have to be a true fallback position. I also tend to watch the market very very closely if a stop loss is in play, such that I can cancel if I truly feel it’s just daily volatility rather than a trend. There’s no perfect answer though to be honest.
Don’t disagree, nothing is cast in stone. My point was that smileandgrow had previously stated “ 100 is definitely on the cards for this”. Sounds pretty “definite” to me ;-) As I say was pulling his leg. I buy in tranches myself, but avoid using words like definitely ;-))
Was only pulling his leg... See a lot of posters stating with confidence they are going to buy at “x” target price on forums, then opening positions earlier...Clearly if 100% confident it was going to drop, you would never open a position earlier ;-)
If confident in position 3 why open position 1? ;-)
Must admit I thought today’s news would have had a more immediate share price impact. Indeed I set up a stop loss early this morning that I subsequently cancelled. At such a significantly low share price though it may be as simple as “the risks are already priced in”, or the professional investors knew more yesterday than we did. Either way we all know there are risks on the NEX outlook in the shorter term but most here are looking 12 months plus in any event I suspect.
Apols typo - meant 150%
Bit unclear why you would view Aviva that may give you a return of +50% and dividends around 2% a year as a better target? It’s a solid return but nothing like the potential on NEX which if returned to 350+ in 3 years would be a return of +290%?
Any news on why the sudden share spike?
@holla’ - very fortunate! I think both those positions you are holding will see you get a healthy return. I think many of us are guilty of viewing the current share price in the context of the last few weeks only. Only need to look at the share price trajectory over five years to realise that in the broader context we are now really debating relatively minor movements, in relation to where this should be post-covid and once the risks are better mitigated.
A lot of us on here are miffed at share movements that are from 170 to 116, 150 to 116 etc. I’m still convinced this share is an absolute steal and will continue to top up at these prices. But we should spare a thought for those that have been in pre-covid trying to ride this out calmly. It must be a really cr@ppy time. Having said that even for those individuals I still think they will get their return, it will simply take longer to recover. Also I don’t know if many on here actively manage their pension funds as well but equally the scale of movements there have been off-the-wall shocking, given the sums involved....Puts any paper losses here into the shade at times.
@crystalballbroke - Can year your frustration so I’ll try offer a different perspective. Nobody that makes big money on shares can time their purchases perfectly. I don’t care how much nonsense people say on these forums that is just not how it works. In order to gain you inevitably need to ride out periods of loss and hold confidence. You aren’t alone and all I’d say is that it is those that maintain discipline and don’t bail when it’s tough that are often the most successful. I don’t know your average on this stock but bear in mind there will be a large swathe of people holding shares they purchased at 400p plus. Try relax.
I’m relieved....not because the share price has had an ok day. But because FI has at last bought. Hopefully less depressing posts now haha ;-)
A number of positives to consider here I think:
Covid cases are dropping (at different rates) in US, Spain and Morocco.
Covid death rates have (albeit inexplicably) fallen off a cliff compared to no. of cases recorded
There are increasingly positive outlooks in terms of a vaccine, with AstraZeneca a front runner in final trials now.
Schools are returning in the US and UK with little appetite for further large scale lockdown
There is enormous pent up demand for leisure travel due to the events of recent months
The share price of NEX is back where is was 27 years ago and is attractive from a value perspective on every possible technical measure applied
NEX share price has dropped further than every competitor over the past 6 months including FGP, GOG and Stagecoach. Even though it has proven to be, as well, or better capitalised. And even though it has a far smaller exposure to any changes in commuting behaviours.
The only thing that would significantly damage this investment from this point that I can see (at any price committed sub-200 in my view, and if happy to wait 18 months) is a resurgence of covid at a scale higher than we’ve seen to date. Personally I think that is incredibly unlikely, given all the medical learnings and hundreds of vaccines in trials as at today.
Another really interesting stat on Covid from today, regarding mortality outcomes.
“If we look solely at those who died within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test, this has fallen by 99% from nearly 1,000 a day to, on average, less than 10”
Even though covid is continuing to spread again (in many nations) for some unknown reason it is far far less likely to result in death. I do think we are emerging now from the crisis and that will be a massive factor here for NEX (and myriad other hard-hit stocks)
Nothing in there I can massively disagree with as suggested a price point of 275+ by end 2021, on a similar basis. Of course there are risks attached to the covid situation but it would be hard to find a stock with this scale of potential upside right now. You should also look at comparisons to other stocks with greater risk exposure, as only provides even greater confidence in NEX as an investment. Other carriers with greater exposure to commuting travellers have all being bundled into a single share bucket over the past few months. It is illogical in my view. Some of the counter to this is the exposure NEX has in the US, Spain and Morocco where covid is obviously not in a great place right now. But should a vaccine arise, and I think it will in some form to improve confidence, there will be a significant correction.
The share price is now back where it was 27 years ago in 1993 (excluding the odd shock event in the interim)....I will be stunned if we don’t make a profit from here, save for the company going bust....(which I don’t anticipate at all)
@pokerchips - agree that there are quite a lot of permutations in traveller and transport operator behaviour that make it pretty difficult to predict. One thing is certain it is not clear cut at all. To assume that if people WFH or migrate away from city locations, NEX would suffer, is way too simplistic. Commuting is not their business. Take another question, many households own cars for commuting predominantly. Many own 2 because that’s what’s needed for 2 jobs. Cars could indeed reduce. It’s all fairly complex in my view on what the net impact might be on NEX.