Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I predict that was the bottom, based on nothing more than gut feel ;-)
If you want to make the big returns this is a classic time when there’s a need to stay calm. I recall the panic and sell outs when NEX was dropping towards 116 in 2020 and most sold out in the daily grind (many had averages around 150). Falkland included ;-) though he will now deny it :-))) Confident this will prove a great investment for those with the courage to hang in.
And the thing that amuses me is when comparing between companies that have seen their balance sheets massacred (e.g. EasyJet/airlines generally) and NEX. There has been almost no allowance for that in SP movements. You only have to run SP movement comparisons for the last 18 months. It’s lunacy. But I am certain that when we emerge from covid-obsessive sp movements these will correct and that will be very much to the benefit of NEX.
In my opinion the market reaction here is pretty short-sighted. If they were expecting revenue increases and that was somehow priced in pre-release that was always crazy. They are on a solid trajectory and if you believe covid is on the wane (as I do) this will be back within 12 months, with a comparatively undamaged balance sheet compared to myriad businesses.
Don’t post often but to be fair I do recall Culco trading when this share was on its knees last summer, and I was posting. So that average doesn’t seem unreasonable. I would also say that when those that bought around 150 bailed as it headed to 116 there was a lot of regret. This will do fine. Patience is all that’s needed.
Don’t worry I’ve lost on other positions since that time. Anyone that says they always win is talking codswallop haha!
I’ve traded back and forth between a number of travel stocks since August time last year, but always kept a core holding in NEX. Have to say that the approach of trading on relative deviations has been very successful. Core NEX holding is ~150p. I’ve checked many times and strangely even outperformed that increase though (across the board), by trading back and forth to “lagging”/“leading” travel stocks at the right points. Not something that will be effective forever though (I know that ;-)
Incidentally I wholly agree with the logic re domestic vs international travel. The price movements and deviations between these markets is really very, very bizarre!
I hear you but I’d be careful of looking at short term movements personally. Look at EasyJet vs NEX over a year, it’s almost an identical track. I fully agree that is completely insane given the relative debt gearings and risk exposure (chalk and cheese). But for whatever reason they are being bundled. Looked at that element hundreds of times personally as it made no sense to me. I’ve since realised you can predict with a reasonable degree of certainty which travel share is likely to rise or fall at a greater rate by analysing the deviations in relative performance. Why the market is applying that bundling though I genuinely cannot say! It’s utterly illogical.
Other thing I’d say is the since the pandemic hit travel shares have generally tracked each other. Do a 1 year comparison of GOG, Stagecoach, NEX etc and not a great deal in it. Put another way appears no one is really valuing pre-pandemic company-specific performance or even post-pandemic potential-performance. They are just all thrown in a basket and moving in tandem (excluding short term deviations). It’s peculiar and won’t/can’t stay like that.
Not really other than it seems to be reacting in a very sensitive way to wider index movements. When the indexes suggest topping out or dropping (even marginally) NEX is swinging disproportionately. Guess general nervousness!
Held since 116 and have been waiting to add more in recent weeks. This is now trading not massively higher than in April last year which is completely nonsensical. Of course there are risks but you’d be hard pushed to find a share with financials like this, comparatively low risk and such an attractive target 12-month upside.
...that was like my performance at work. Enthusiastic start, expectations set and heightened as I step through the day, with absolutely no progress made whatsoever ;-)
Think it made it through 250 ;-). Well done all! Anyone that stuck with this as it was sinking week after week in late Summer, and managed not to bottle it, deserves the win for sure. And to the longer term holders fingers crossed this gets you back level soon as.
Are we going to break the elusive 250 ceiling.....? If we do think that’s the beginning of another healthy rise beyond that to 270 ish. Let’s see!
@culco - thanks for suggestions will take a look! Appreciate it! Find the time to research is one of the biggest barriers so need to make the time now. So many blooming options ;-) all the best!!!!
Culco- all totally logical and can’t disagree with anything you are seeing. Think I’ll reduce my holding a fraction when the time is right but I’m struggling to find alternatives to diversify into, that don’t carry a higher degree of risk...and given diversifying is to counter risk it seems a bit of a peculiar puzzle ;-) all the very best of luck!!!
Hi Culco! Out of interest what’s your plan hereon? Everything screams to me long term hold, but....TBA this is completely overweight for me now in the shares I’m holding, so hard not to hit the “bank it” button...:-)
since posted! But like many on here I was in the “averaging down” club from around 170, as it went all the way to 116, when I doubled up. Now obvs like many this has been one of my better decisions. Not likely to sell all of them but will probably skim some and diversify, hopefully around the 270+ mark....Fingers crossed thats not jinxed it ;-)
@culco- I did sell out at 170 but bought back at 164 after I saw the detail of the lockdown announcement. Like many I thought it shouldn’t have warranted a drop like this but hey ho...win some lose some. Mitigated the drop a little but not much more than that sadly...