Member Info for wolfhound

...issued buy note with target sp of 550 up from 500p previous - and right ahead of TU tomorrow Looking for a nice uptick before close

recurring theme on boards - of course shorters are pretty secretive on how they operate never the less they are also sophistocated in their execution - what is to say that they haven't used another Fund vehicle ( SPV) to go long the shorts already - after all 70mn shares traded in the week of the 12/12/16- allowing a buyer for every seller - call that 35mn new holders of stock ( or roughly 8%) - so someone was buying yet we haven't seen any RNS re threshold being exceed - that percentage has to be largely funds all buying under 3% - unlikely to be pi's - if you know how to do it it is perfectly within the rules of transparrency and you don't need to net - that way they keep pi's guessing for the future. They can net the shorts when ever it suits by drip feeding from Fund B back to Fund A. so sometimes all is not what it seems

Lets hope so spy, the sp will fly ! GLA

@spy - last time JL couldn't do anything - shorting happened just after the Rights Issue was announced and closed just as the RI closed - shorters had a window in which they could operate unopposed and they knew it - well rehearsed move for RI generally - this time however I think JL knew left unchecked PAYS was a sitting duck for a take-over ( and at these levels still is IMHO). That said PAYS has not been quiet on its intentions to do additional M&A - for me however I think a dual nasdaq listing might be something they are considering first and for that they needed to show resilience and action by the Board I only hope that they do - catalyst for the rerating required - then we could aggrssively go on acqn trail using newly re-rated shares.

I should have added - interestley over the last 3 yrs ( pro-ratasp basis) the last time sp dipped below the 200MAVG for a significant peiod of time (2-3 months) was just prior to the Skrill acquistion - so it would not shock me if PAYS did announce an acqn

@GS - it is indeed a personal choice in terms of risk appetite and fair play you have made some great calls and profits to boot :) Indeed PAYS vulnerability to a bid is still there IMHO - I fleetingly remember reading a headline somewhere that 2017 might be an interesting year for M&A activity in payments sector due to consolidation to compete with the 800lb gorillas - so you never know GLA

GS as someone mentioned on another board - the difference this time round is that the company have a share buy back programme - so whilst historical trends would support that approach the new order does indicate that PAYS will step in and buy heavy in the event of any concerted weaknessness of sp or attempt to push sp down - and with approx 90-95% of those funds still available then we may have some way to go. GLA

If there is one lesson that managment will hopefully learn from all of this - if they really want to maximise market capital - then a 2017 NASDAQ listing would be a good first step !!

Just so you are aware quoted PE of 31.5 - is total rubbish : a) Price is as today i.e. Market Cap of £1.7bn - which is the combined PAYS business of Optimal and Skrill b) Earnings are 2015 - largely exclude Skrill Earnings ( bar the last qtr) - so it is comparing apples and oranges - and giving you a watermelon Edison have worked out a pro-forma PE for 2015 of 17.7 ( based off historic share price) Current share price is £3.50 = $4.32 per share From Edison research - considered conservative - considerably so compared to Barclays or Morgan Stanley 2016 - EPS are est at 39.2c per share - PE of 11 2017 - EPS are est at 43.6c per share - PE of 9.9 Peers are trading on 15-18 in UK and that rises to a PE of 30 in the US

Comeonvog and Chilting - trust me I have no Crystal ball - I think we will get to 500p plus - it may just take the TU to get us there initially and then we can kick on. If there was a 10% Buy back then sp should have a new high target of 517p ( 470p+ 10%) I still think the focus behind the scenes is probably towards getting a deal over the line - if we do one in qtr 1 then we may be well north of 550p I also suspect part of this move by the Board is that they realise PAYS is suseptible to a bid approach at these levels - so I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a surprise bid materialise in the not too distant future - now that would really nail the shorters :0

@delboy - I think BDO will have been given a clear mandate to walk this back up to probably 450p prior to TU as they have allowed for 10% BB with shorts only at 5% as follows : a) Today - shorters 24 hours to close in the open market - set new floor at market close but not below 360p b) Rest of this week - as price rises lift floor to autopurchase to that level - target 400p Friday Xmas close c) next wk - only 2 days - target 425p d) wk post new year - rinse and repeat to 450p ahead of TU on 12th GLA anf have a v Merry Christmas - Santa will be delivering for the PAYS longs !!

and a very merry Christmas to you and all GS - looking forward to a great 2017

courtesy of user 100Leila on another board : Just seen the Morgan Stanley note They run through the shorters points in the Spotlight Research and one by one dismiss them. They give a target share price of £5.60. Their summary is:- "We see a buying opportunity post press reports of short-seller commentary, with risks now overly discounted. We revisit our views on some of the topics brought into focus today, and reiterate our Overweight rating."

For those whole might not have seen/remembered it - wirecard were also subjected to a short attack earlier this year - with a build up of short positions and then the release of "anonymous research" report from an outfit called Zatarra - sp recovered as soon as market realised it was complete BS http://www.new-corner.com/zatarra-the-new-copycat-of-short-selling-activists/ oh .....and guess what ....PAYS and wirecard also had a shorter in common https://www.bundesanzeiger.de/ebanzwww/wexsservlet?page.navid=nlpresultlisttonlpresultlist_history&nlp_search_current_list.selected=4ccc0e0bc0f5014a&nlp_search_current_list.destHistoryId=35235&session.sessionid=6a4a25ecb1f0c6a68368fe484df89452

I think we will see a steady rise next week and as the shorts close the positions like Sandgrove. The buyers you mention will naturally pile in - in anycase the shorters really have only a few days to close before the trading update which could come before the 14 business pays currently planed - PAYS might bring that forward if after next week the shorts are still there. I think we are all in agreement that what has really happened here is unfounded mud slinging by some anonymous shorters - that is market manipulation and investors shouls complain to the FCA on the marketabuse@fca.org.uk or call 0800 11106768 and report what is clearly price manipulation activity. Market abuse regulation (MAR) only came into force on 3 July 2016- so this is relatively new powers for the FCA and whilst they may feel that the shorters are outside the UK jurisdiction those who aided and abetted them are most certainly in the UK and under the control of the regulator and are obliged to have policies to detect and stop price manipulation -- a hefty fine for failure to detect by the UK collaborators will make sure they don't support this going forward and change their ways.

SP rose 16% in same period last yr. Of course PAYS could always bring forward the date

@GS - unfortunatly even I can't see a replication of Porsche VW - have a read of this http://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-idUSTRE49R3I920081028 Two key items : 1. Size Porsche had secretly increased its stake from roughly 30 to 74% of VW stock havinf previously denied it was going to make a bid - which is why the shorters came in - thinking VW was over priced. When Porche announced this all hell broke loose and VW sp rose to over €1000 - valueing VW at over $370bn - the most expensive company in the world. it rose by 90% in one day. 2. Free float stock versus shorts With Saxony holding 20% and Porsche 74% only 6% of stock was free float and the shorters amounted to 12% - so they had to pay on the double to buy back the stock to cover the short Clearly they learned a lesson - better to short small cap companies with sub 50% institutional investors. Other payment providers to bet365 include PAYPAL; Mastercard;Visa - ask yourself why they were not subjected to the same short ? After all only 13% of PAYS revenues come from Bet365 ( allegedly) Simple answer because they could not be manipulated. The real lesson here is have patience and don't run leveraged positions you can't fund - sit tight and you will make money when this blows over and it will - sometimes it just takes a while for sense to prevail.

That will be the challenge for the Board - they now clearly need to address the discount issue as a priority or else this type of schenanigan will continue. I can see this going one of three ways : a) Board make a further acquisition and the 13% from the single asian investor ( assume bet365) is further diluted - ideally below 10% possibly even 7.5% - depending on size of acqn. then that would trigger the re-rating and naturally up we go b) Bid - likely sp will rise back up to say about 400p+ from those with a nose ( and perhaps a nod,nod wink wink) - the publication of shorts closing will also move sp north - and possibly then we see a bid materialise - with anything up to a 50% premium - so again you are in the 600p+ c) Nasdaq - I would not discount that the Board after this issue don't come under pressure from ii's to go for a Nasdaq listing. That is likely to address many issues : - SEC as a regulator - the shorters would think twice about doing what they have done to PAYS on LSE - Rating - we would probably see a large re-rating and whilst maybe not of the 27 of a PAYPAL - we might be high teens possibly PE of 20 - A US listing would helop if we wanted to acquire a US competitor and open up new source of investment. Any of the above and this will rocket - but from your own perspective you need to decide how much profit you want to make on this and decide from there.

@GS - I guess you just don't to share the crystal ball - huh :) In fairness mate - you have been getting the calls on PAYS right , as has Technie,BB and one or two others - no mean feat !! As for a bid - lets see what happens after TU in 8 Jan - we are likely to be debt free before end of 2017 and trading on a forward PE of sub 10 currently - that in anyones books is cheap - Barclays review was that 2017 will see a re-rating so if we go to PE of 15 like peers - then we will be trading close to their target sp of 610p. No doubt the Board will use the 8th as an opportunity to address the complete lies and speculation in that trash report issued by vested interests who profit from panic by pi's

@GS - you sir are a legend I have lost count at how many times you have called the rise and falls of this stock and called the tops and bottoms - you have truely made a fortune on PAYS you will have to give us a lend of that Crystal ball :)