Member Info for wolfhound

Sorry Technie - I fundamentaly disagree - just because both have risk does make them both gambling the risk profiles are fundamentally different Gambling - outcome is known with 100 certainty - i.e. either a head or a tail with each toss of a coin - 50/50 probability with 100% certainty Investing - uncertain outcome but highly predictble with high degree of certainty - i.e. I know with 99% certainty that PAYS will deliver 2016 revenues of close to $1bn and EBITDA of $300mn on 7th March Therein - lies the difference with investing I can predict the outcome with a high degree of certainty - in gambling I know I will have one of two outcomes - win or loose and there is equal probablity of getting either result every time I flip that coin.

Value- spotting that a sp has been mis-priced long before the market adjusts - requires skill Anything else is a game of chance - and is therefore by default gambling. GLA

@ GS - not sure what you are saying below but IMHO - sp can and often does sit below its true value - if a deal is announced on the 7th and the terms of that deal are good for PAYS shareholders and it creates value then sp will rise as more investors buy the stock. If not then the flip will happen but i am quite sure JL et co will have taken good advice from the brokers in that regard and engineer a positive outcome - after all he has a lot of stock himslef. As for shorters - would not underestimate their motives nor can we say for sure what might/might not be their motivation for anything - not conspiracy that is just realistic and because they don't like disclosure they might just decide to play with the intention of the rules because they can.

@GS - if history doesn't repeat itself then you might as well forget about looking at charts and any re-appearing patterns........ as for shorters- who is to say they are actually still short - I agrre they are smart and well resourced which is why I for one doubt the shorters didn't hedge their position when PAYS was sub 300p and took massive profits - what we see now could simply be what they want us to see- if is easily facilitted through a range of off-shore hedge fund vehicles that are considered "independent" of the shorting fund. From another BB I understand MS have said " a deal is close" and re-iterated their overweight 560p target - so not long to go till the 7th March

@PC - and what if the deal is like Skrill - sp rockets by 50% - shorters have to pay that over in margin - og and by the way everyone wants their stock back to sell it - so you get an almighty short squeeze and it rises by another 50% ? There is IMHO an over infatuation with the shorters - for all we know they already hedged the shorts when the sp was sub 300p via other vehicles and now just giving the appearance of being short to keep their playbook secret and make sure the sheep ( pi's) perform in future as expected on some other stocks. I suggest you have a look at the sp prior to Skrill - then as now the sp was trading below the 200MAVG, co was delivering great results ( up 44% due to meritus acqn previous year, etc..) yet sp was languishing, acqn was announced on same day as full yr results were published - which is 7 March this yr - and sp rocketed 50%. DYOR - but don't be surpeised if we see history repeat itself on the 7th March - GLA

@technie - have a look at slope during the Rights Issue - it was downward sloping ( largely due to issue of new stock as part of the RI) - once we crossed over the 200 MAVG as soon as rights issue closed - sp climbed and continued to do so right to the peak. But I agree current slope looks to have a similar shape to just prior to Skrill. Hopefully it reflects a repeat performance soon as we had with skrill - announcement of an acquisition followed by a 45%- 50% rise in sp

It is all relative Technie - nothing has been short on the timeline of PAYS :) ; s.p. should be significantly higher IMHO I still come back to the 200 MAVG - same as now we traded below that level for a few months just prior to Skrill acqn - and then we bounced 50% - if we get the "bold M&A" - then I think that will be the catalyst to really kick the sp on - anyway not far to go to the 7th March. I am hoping that "bold" translates into a double our size reverse takover - or perhaps the buying of a US listed competitor - and get us a NASDAQ listing - that I think will re-rate us much quicker. GLA

Cheers Technie - you are too modest. I agree - we are within touching distance of the pyscologically important 400p mark - once through and held we could see sp advance comfortably back towards previous high ahead of publication of full yr results and possibly with the added bonus of "bold M&A news" - we could see a really significant rise in sp - GLA

pleasure Skijunky - lets hope it is predicator to some interesting news :) Technie - looks like your graph called it on the uptick - and a v good call it was !!

the signal might be in volume - 750K in the 1st hr of trading ; it would suggest ii buying

@primitive - many are in the same boat - none of us like seeing the sp significantly undervalued - but the one great thing with this sp is that no matter how they try eventually there is a piece of news that makes it break through the barriers - IMHO we might be seeing that come 7th March hopefu;;ly our patience will be rewarded in another 30 days...or less

@primitive - I suggest you have a look at the graph just prior to the Skrill acqn - the s.p then like now traded below the 200 MAVG for an extended period - it was still trading at about 5% below the 200MAVG when Skrill was announced - at which point the sp increased by 40-50% - and like then there were alot of despondent posters on this and other BB's - then like now PAYS was showing stong growth in profits and cash but it wasn't being reflected in the sp. the Skrill announcement was made on same day as the release of the full year results - which is now just 30 days away to 7 March - worth seeing if history repeats itself IMHO

Pleasure Andy - I should have added - an aggressive buyback pattern might actually have been a concern to me - I would have interpreted it there was nothing boiling away in the background - GLA

The Buybacks have been fairly subdued IMHO - my view is that the Board are intentionally not being aggressive with the buybacks and are just using it as a means of keeping price relatively stable - possibly because they will be making an announcement that will absolutely rocket the sp in due course, whilst 7th March is possibly most likely date - it could just as easily be before then

As we move further away from the 12th Dec and closer to the 7th Mar - i think the share buyback and the reduction in reported shorts will see sp stabalise around these levels and march onwards to about 425p - barring a wider issue in the market. If we get an announcement of the 7th re a "bold M&A" then sp will fly - by anything from 50-80% IMHO depending on the deal. Edison report is out to today and even assuming minimal 10% growth - 2018 will see EPS of 51c - that is a PE of 9.1% half of what we were (18.4) prior to skrill acquisition. Yet the skrill acqn diluted the bet 365 revenue contribution from 30% down to about 13% - so a 50% discount has been applied despite "perceived risk" being halved - that only makes sense in the world of make believe and fairytales - if we continue to languish below fair value a competitor will make a bid for PAYS

@phoenix - good to see you back I think the real next date for the diary is 7 March and hopefully the announcement of realisation of "Bold M&A Activity" - a reverse take-over/merger could mean our paltry single digit PE is re-rated to possibly 15-25 - I am mindful of JL's comment of $10bn MV - and assuming re-rating of PE of 15 post M&A we would need consolidated Earnings of $650mn - with PAYS on about $275mn - means we are looking for someone on about $375mn

Any acquistion will need to diversify the client base/market segment inorder to achieve the re-rating to a much higher PE The word "bold" - could mean size or sector - if it does transpire down the line that it is Worldpay then that could be v interesting as I think Ingenico and Wirecard might have something to say about that - both having been jilted at the alter by Worldpay in favour of IPO Interesting couple of months ahead - certainly news of advanced M&A will put an end to shorting speculation me thinks

The skrill acqn was announced on the same day as the 2014 FY results were published on 15 march - so 7th March could indded be a very key date !!!

Have a look at the similarities between the Graph now and just prior to the Skrill acqn - in both cases the sp traded below the 200MAVG for a few months - big boys shape the graphs :)

@GS - I think key is "bold M&A opportunities" - PAYS PE is so low due to Asian Investor being around 13% - a Bold M&A indicates a reverse takeover of a larger player/merger - that would dilute the AI below 5% and lead to a re-rating to UK peers on a PE of 15-20. Who knows if that M&A is US based then that might give us NASDAQ dual listing - rerate to a PE of 25-30 SP would be on steroids !!