Merger23 Jun 2022 11:55
so taking a mid point of Mid November for Q4 (unless conditions waived prior to that) there are still 5 months to go for the merger to go ahead i assume with a CNE vote in mid October (?). at present the 3.8068 TLW shares for every 1 CNE share looks underweight but a lot can happen before CNE SH's vote. a couple of interesting points to take away; 1. TLW does not have any distributable reserves for a divi to be paid so they will need to upstream dividends from subsidiaries or CNE before this can take place or to do a capital restructure. this would take time so i assume the earliest this can be done is for the 2023 accounts if they have reserves to be paid out as a dividend by then; 2. 26% of the cost savings mentioned of $ 50m as a benefit of the merger is from the "de-duplication of the Board(s), Exec/Non-Exec directors and costs of being listed" - seriously $ 13m savings from that cost level ?
anyhoo, the other thing that is currently in CNE's favour, is that if the TLW SP goes up, the CNE SP goes up, if the TLW SP goes down, the CNE goes up, as i assume the market thinks a counter-bidder will turn up. it all seems illogical but i'm not complaining.