Member Info for wokinpark

SP was 110.70, its taken 4 years to get back there !
what a struggle.

a bit of welcome movement today, maybe just announced this morning - seems a big drop in the short for them from past history

on 29th March

at the current SP, CPI is about 220th if it was in the 250 already. MarketCap is not the only criteria the FT committee uses but i assume it is one of the key ones.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-250

jimjam, we will know tomorrow. he's been shorting this for 6 years or so but only upto 4.5% of the shares issued. if he has 6.5m shares shorted at present, he's probably not a short term kind of guy but i would have bailed out at 80-85p rather then say now. even with a bad set of results and doom/gloom on the horizon, could you get any lower than say 110 at present ? its probably a drop in the ocean for him/his fund but every £ helps !

Odey is still short on this. the trend is upward and if decent results come through on Thursday and the right noises made about the operations it can only go one way, cant it ? if i was shorting it wouldnt be MTRO to be the stock.

i agree with jimjam, i dont think a UK entity wants MTRO unless it is HTB or Starling, etc as a consolidation in the sector. possibly Nationwide or Coventry but why bother when they can grow their own businesses without the baggage attached. if MTRO could get their act together and clear out any "hidden" issues (whatever they might be), they could become the consolidator themselves.

net cash m8, ie after borrowings, etc deducted.

the only way the SP would get back to £ 20 is a 1 for 10 share consol ! this is a 250 share with possibly 400 on a TO. i dont think there is much attraction for a clearer to buy MTRO so you are really looking for a foreign player who wants a high street presence but then who wants that anymore ?

that is not the market consensus on interest rate hikes. they are expecting one more to 4.25% this year - probably March possibly later and then stable for the rest of the year before rate cuts in 2024 say by 0.5% in the year. Inflation (CPI) is on its way down including core inflation however RPI is sticky but thats not the metric that the market uses much. you are possibly looking at CPI being 5ish % by the end of 2023.

i think you need to read the prelim announcement of yesterday to see the net cash position. it is £ 1.2bn not £ 5bn+. i doubt they will hit £ 3bn + for FY23, probably £ 1.75 to 2.25bn depending on gas prices, etc. it is a 3p final div but i expect it to be 4ish next year to counter profit gouging accusations.

i think it will bounce around 102 to 107 today and hopefully end up at 105 or so today

not worried just being realistic. results and narrative out tomorrow so interesting to see what the CEO comes up with and how the SP reacts and whether it stays above 100 at the end of the day and then the trend from Friday onwards.

if i got the numbers right, a 3p final divi is ~ £ 175m. a £ 500m divi is closer to 8.5p per share. i think not. share buy back they can do what they like, i know it has implications for the SP but to me is share support and not much else. tax would be about £ 600m give or take windfall tax or whatever they have called it.

rumour on the streets is £ 3bn pre tax but wait for the media barrage of profiteering and not enough tax being paid even though they will be. Undeserving shareholders, etc.
my simple view is 3p final divi and £0.5bn buy back and £ 100m into a hardship fund.

@ 0.13p ! wow, Xmas is coming !

i know its peanuts in the context of life but hey ho, its +ve !

i dont know much about MTRO but if they make a decent profit i would keep the cash and no div or buy back. i think they need to strengthen the B/S for the next few years until they can pay a divi after cumulative P/L turns +ve

good rise today. a drop in the ocean v Odey but every little bit helps. wonder how much more before results are announced.

going by G**gle charts, it was early 200's pre-pandemic so it would be nice to get there again in a few weeks time prob just before the results and then of course the obligatory sell off once results announced. will Odey change his trading stance ?

150+ on the cards today ? really sticking my neck on that !