Member Info for Wigwammer

Actually there is nothing that states Lanstead have to sell their entire holding over the next 5 months. Nor do they have a history of doing so. During the last phase 3 they maintained a material holding in immupharma right the way to data release. Furthermore, according to the last holdings RNS, they have not been selling a sufficient amount to cover the requisite monthly payments to Immupharama, which suggests they have been taking risk onto their own balance sheet rather than selling further shares. Lanstead will likely continue to sell as per the agreement, but we do not the rate, and they are selling mechanically. If you are interested in the fundamental story, it is exactly that mechanical selling which feeds the liquidity and opportunity to buy at a lower price. DYOR GLA

The key thing to bear in mind here - and that gets little airtime - is the low valuation and consequent assymetry of return outcomes. Yes - there is great uncertainty, and a material possibility that holders ultimately end up losing 100%. But if instead it turns out that the story progresses, patent protection is achieved and partnerships announced, the shares are likely to rise by multiples of 100%. I would place the odds on each broad outcome at about 50:50, so consequently the risk/return appears highly appealing. But it is important to recognise the downside risk and to only invest an appropriate amount. IMO DYOR GLA

You evidently do believe in committing to a view though, MD

Oh I’m not bothered about your decisions, nolupus. I’m simply pointing out that you’re the sort of person who never actually commits to one. Thanks for the list of non commital management jargon @14.45… GLA

Remember that on top of the sharing agreement, immupharma also raised circa £1m in a straight placing. GLA DYOR etc

Well of course I can’t disagree and say you’re wrong, nolupus. That would require you to commit to a decision in the first place :)

I’m sure some people do say one thing and do another, nolupus. It is also evident that some people have total conviction about never committing to a decision here (the difficult bit). ATB GLA DYOR

That’s very true, nolupus. Sentiment comes and goes. Here one day, gone the next. And today there isn’t a lot of greed evident, is there? And of course everyone is entitled to their own convictions, even if their only evident conviction is to never commit to any decision at all :)

That’s true, nolupus. But I’m not sensing a lot of greed today, are you? There is fear and greed in markets, there are pros and cons, risks and returns. Those who can commit to a decision, and those who can’t :)

Absolutely loving the pessimism here today. Consensus thinking at its best .. Be greedy while others are fearful. GLA

Unfortunately lollywally, good investment is all about making the right decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Obviously, if/when we get concrete news on a lucrative deal the shares are not going to be sub 3p anymore. It appears however that most of the people who attended the AGM - and could add colour to the discussion - do not seem keen to share it with you. Frankly, I can’t blame them. GLA

Many thanks poorfarmer, rebarm and wildbunch for the feedback

But you’re boring and wrong, peter. It hasn’t been radio silence since the cash raise, has it? Because we have had the MOA RNS and multiple associated interviews. Don’t let facts get in the way though :)

You are misleading people again, peter. The cash raise was announced in mid February, while the RNS about proving the MOA and associated interviews came in mid March. So it clearly isn’t the case that it has been radio silence since the cash raise, is it?

Lanstead 13%. Luca 4%. Alora 2%. There is little institutional presence here, and reading this board it should come as little surprise to know many PI’s are not enamoured with Tim. Whether that makes sense or not is a different matter.

I’m not questioning the number, span. I’m noting who chooses to underline it and cover it in neon highlighter. As for it suggesting something we didn’t already suspect, well of course it doesn’t. Just read the board this morning . ATB

Ah peter is nob from the advfn board! I’d know that spite anywhere :)

To be fair, I don’t think it tells you anything that couldn’t be guessed by reading this board. PI’s are not enamoured with Tim. Whether that makes sense or not is quite a different matter. IMO

That is certainly a good question, peter, but it is by no means the only thing people should be considering. We do not know why the trial has been delayed, but we do have improved colour on a number of other things. We know there is rising deal interest in the autoimmune space, that the company has had meetings under CDA with multiple potential partners, that a third party lab in the US has undertaken succesful research which the company believes can consolidate their patent position. So some areas with less clarity now, some areas with more. We also know the market cap is sub £20m, so scepticism is consensus and any positive traction is likely to be well rewarded. IMO DYOR etc

Span - I don’t know what sort of colour TM may add today, we will have to wait and see if those attending hear anything and are willing to share. But I don’t think it’s standard practice to give details about the number of meetings taking place and so on using RNS. I don’t recall other companies doing it. If immupharma are seriously engaged with a number of potential partners over a high value deal then it does not surprise me that the process has taken this long, or that discretion is expected, or that we haven’t heard anything yet. Similarly with the patents, which I’m sure can be a complex and lengthy process where discretion is expected. Better get the job done first, and talk about it afterwards. I suspect that’s what the patent agents are saying too. IMO