Member Info for WiganWarriors

Hmmm, only shares bought BEFORE the official close of business on the day before going ex div, will attract the dividend. For instance if Wimps shares bought today prior and including up to 16:29:58 they will attract the dividend. Also, need to realise that many of the trades that appear above as after 16:30 are only just being reported, but were actually traded during the day. These are typical broker to broker trades, not AT's. Free sites like this often fall behind when listing trades, and so trades which occurred in the business day get reported on these free sites whenever they appear, or the brokers settle the paperwork

Management have repeatedly said they will decide whether a special, or other form of shareholder distribution will be made when 2021 results announced. Not before.

Well, the world can't restart its engines and get back to normality after Covid (and from the UK's perspective also BREXIT, and an idiot like Boris running things), without a few serious bumps and stutters along the way. October(ish) is traditionally the time for market wobbles, so factor all this in and it's likely to be bumpy for a few weeks, months. However, if you can see through this then no doubt Wimps will reward if you are accumulating at these sort of sub 160 prices. We've been here before, so we know how the movie usually ends, which means plenty opportunities to make decent monies.

However, if you are trying to trade and time the market you better be a professional, or just plain lucky, otherwise the odds are against you at the mo. Patience pays off in these situations. Just like the current situation re fuel, the media loves nothing better than to over hype the downside. Always darkest before the dawn.

The closing auction price was 158.7. That is what they will open at tomorrow. Of course that is a "technical" opening, and they will jump either to the downside, or upside depending on the market in the first few seconds at 0800 hrs.

Reminds me of Eric Morecambe's quip when Andre Previn suggested he was not playing the right notes, and we all know the response ... I'm playing the right notes, but not necessarily in the right order ... Wimps is a share that keeps on giving, it has a reasonably volatile track record (20% swings wishing a few weeks / months) enabling a couple of solid opportunities each year to fill your boots, then sell into the recovery. Patience is required, and the ability to get the trades in the right order.

Not much activity on this BB recently. I wonder how many of the old timers who used to frequent this BB have passed before their time.

My earlier point was to highlight the risk embedded in IMB. I accept that the new management may well turn out to save the business from continuing decline, or the task may be too great to achieve without a further restructuring to the downside (further dividend cut, assets sold, shareholder capital erosion etc). Time will tell, none of us can predict the future. The inherent risks as I see them:

Very high debt, in a macro economics environment where it is expected that inflation will rise strongly, before subsiding. Will IMB survive the peak.

Western societies drastically reducing traditional smoking practices. Therefore traditional customer base eroding at a fair clip. New "Vaping" products growing, but still subject to potential regulatory constraints. Easy to start a "Vaping" business, little in the way of capital requirements, or existing secure and long term contractual arrangements as the tobacco industry has developed with growers over many, many years.

Recent history shows sustained capital erosion and cashflow. Why will that change.

Poor recent management (I would say irresponsible and failed to address industry challenges, taking substantial personal benefits and just increasing debt rather than cutting cloth as necessary). Will current management be able to turn Titanic around.

These are my thoughts, of course IMHO.

Hmmm, can I make an observation. If you can safely accrue ~ 10% return given current macro economic environment, then everyone would be doing this. So, there must be a catch. As we all know, you get a 10% return either because the share price has fallen hard, which it has consistently for a few years now. Or the dividend is about to be cut to bring the ratio back into line. Something just has to give, it is not sustainable to get this return without accepting a great risk. Of course, happy to listen to another explanation if I am missing something.

Sorry, I should have said "risk on" mode.

If it wasn’t for the rumours about a bid for RDW, I suspect the builders would be falling hard and Wimps heading back into the 160’s. Unless the market has come around to the view that in “risk off” mode, the builders are a safe(ish) haven.

Hi Fred. Seems to me (anecdotally), that VIMTO products are selling very well compared to their competitors when I visit supermarkets, shops etc. I guess we will need to wait for the next update before the market takes any view, one way or the other. You can't fault them from lacking imagination in product development:

https://themanc.com/trending/theres-a-new-vimto-cheesecake-hitting-the-shelves-at-iceland-next-month/

:-)

I would suggest that the market is worrying about managements ability to manage the integration of Refinitive. There has been precious little in the way of positive news flow, and significant management changes. All adds up to a nervous market, hopefully no more surprises to the downside next week, otherwise were into the 60's. However, I do believe that the acquisition and overall strategy is sound, whether the price paid and LSEG's ability to integrate the IT is worry. Ultimately, data is king these days and LSEG should proser if they can reassure the market.

At the moment the problem is building them, not selling them. Given the drag caused by supply chain and in some cases labour, Wimps will not deliver "best ever" build rate for the first half. Also, they won't deliver best ever profit. Current year end consensus (including Spain) is to deliver ~ 13900 units, revenue of ~ £4.1bn, pre tax profits of ~£740m. However, they will take an exceptional cost of ~ £135m for the fire cladding issue. Now, if all goes well re COVID they may just better these numbers, as is the generally accepted practice. Next year will be when Wimps should start to motor as they will have more smaller sites opening and working capital will have re balanced to a more normal profile.

I agree with your comments re summer volumes and opportunities to build / add to positions. However, I beg to differ re SB’s and CFD’s. There are significant benefits, especially SB tax free trading as long as you understand what trading on margin means. You can just replicate any basic trade via CFD or SB and credit your account with the full nominal amount, just to get the tax free trade. Or, if you can handle margin calls then that’s also fine. However, beware of some OTC CFD and SB providers as they have no qualms whatsoever in closing out your position if you miss a margin call, or they will also increase you margin rate without notice as well. Having said that I have made considerable amounts va SB’s. Caveat Emptor.

Boris is an idiot and national liability. This has nothing to do with political preferences, just observational given his lack of integrity and unfamiliarity with the truth. At some point the Tories will realise that Boris is bad news and they will dump him. Anyway, his “leadership “ is a significant contributor of today’s meltdown, witness the £ collapse and the US putting us on their highest risk list. How can it be ok to let clubs open today with no restrictions, and in September require double jabs. How is is right that ten days isolation today if double jabbed, yet in mid August it’s not required. Boris is risking all the good work done so far. We’re in for a volatile summer.

That’s old news. It was reported over twelve months ago, just the usual “builders “ bashing dragged up by the media again. You just have to live with constant negativity from the media and politicians if you choose to invest in this sector.

Previously, when the Directors have shown support Wimps have released the announcements on consecutive days. So if I was a betting man I reckoned might get another RNS after the market closes.

HI Krusty, well whether it be PE or activist there will come a time when either the major investors will agitate for a change of strategy to release more value (in Wimps case its selling some of the large land bank or selling the Spanish subsidiary), or someone doing it for them. In the former the existing shareholders will get the proceeds, in the later the existing shareholders will lose out. Interesting to note one of the new has bought a few shares with his own money, always encouraging. As you pointed out, even with strong demand the builders can't build fast enough to take advantage, and the best they can do is keep pricing firm to offset increased cost of labour and materials. Wimps need another twelve to eighteen months before they can start to exploit increased production and operating profit. We will have to wait and see if they are allowed the luxury.

HI Ben, generally I agree with your view that Wimps are unlikely to be able to take advantage of demand as their ability to increase production is limited. As for 30% margin ( I assume you mean operating profit margin), I can't see Wimps getting anywhere near that. Their target is to return to around 21 - 22% by next year. Only PSN can get ~30% operating profit margin, as they don't have much of a land bank, as pretty much buy land as they go along meaning they aren't carrying much on their balance sheet. Of course, it is a bit risky if land becomes scarce and expensive, but that hasn't been the case since before the financial crash.

We need to get a resolution to the "cladding" issue soon, so we can move on. IMHO this is the real reason for the recent share price depression. However, Wimps has the largest land bank of the builders so I believe that if the SP stays depressed compared to other builders (as it has), then they may get their collar felt by private equity. They will realise the value of Wimps "off market" and out of public view. Unfortunately current owners will miss out. Either way, as usual, if you invest in the building sector you just have to accept that it is a political and media football, who love to maline the builders at every opportunity.

The builders in general have been weak for the last month, or so, since UK GOV raised the prospect of applying a surcharge on the large builders to cover the cost of removal and replacement of suspect cladding on ALL high rise building in UK, regardless of who developed them originally. I suspect that until this is properly quantified and costed, builders will drift lower. Also, they usually drift lower at this time of the year pending the next batch or results and updates late summer.