Member Info for WiganWarriors

JFF, it depends on your trading platform. Some post dividends first thing, and some take up to day before actually posting to your account. I wouldn’t worry.

FWIW, I also get the discount to around 50% given yesterdays net asset value. However, these are unaudited and I would take with a pinch of salt. Maybe liquidation would bring around $400m, which is around £285m given todays market cap of around £180m. Not sure the risk reward metrics make this compelling

Hi Fred. See what gets said tomorrow. A fair few buys going through this afternoon. Hmmm, wonder if that’s just speculative buying or someone in the know.

Hi Bamps, I guess you’re hallucinating now the pubs are open. Wimps have never said they were increasing standard maintenance dividends instead of paying a “special “.

For those who never read or research. The announcement of return to standard maintenance dividends, and proposed 4.14p will be voted on at the AGM. Of course it will likely be approved. Therefore you can probably rely on 2 X 4.14p to be paid this year.

The company has repeatedly said that it will not consider a "special" dividend until next years preliminary results; Feb 2022. They also point out that any "special" distribution of excess cash may be via cash dividend or share buyback, or mix to be decided nearer the time.

I have noticed "Feel Good" drinks appearing on the shelves of Booths Supermarkets, along with Vimto frozen ice lollies. Also, Booths seem to be selling a fair amount of the "remix" flavours and give a fair amount of shelf space to them. Plus, the Vimto flavoured water seems to be going well in the "meal deal" section.

Also, noted that Octopus has increased their shareholding from ~ 7% to ~ 8%.

All good at the mo. Hopefully Ramadan sales went well, and we should get a decent trading update at the AGM in a couple of weeks. I expect that we should be comfortably back to around £15 - £16 after the half year results.

HI Fred,
Yeah, I believe that NICL will gradually recover to £15 - £17 range by the time the half year results due , late summer.

Kind regards

There were two off book trades around that time for 2,119,579 @ 213.92, and both were cancelled almost immediately. This suggests to me that it was finger trouble.

HI Armani. Just had a look at the time line, and the spike was for 2.1M at 1.19. Obviously, not the auction, unless that was a delayed publication. I'll look further into it. As there are no regulated options exchanges that offer TW (apart from OTC companies), it is unlikely to be options related via an exchange. Maybe an OTC has taken a hedging position out, however I believe that it is more likely to be "finger trouble"

Hi Armani. Not sure of your explanation re price spike. Be interested in your understanding. However, without looking at time line I would guess it was the normal mid day auction (1200 hrs), where orders are suspended pending crossing. At this point the prices reflect the order book, with highest and lowest priced orders are temporarily displayed. Just like you often see in the closing auction (1630-1635hrs).

Cynic. Your brother will also benefit from decent beer and proper rugby as well. Don’t tell anyone, or we’ll get over run ??

Hmmm, the dividend is not actually known until tomorrow, and eventually voted on at the AGM. However, Wimps have not changed their dividend policy, so all things equal it should be around 3.8p for each dividend this year. Don't forget that Wimps issued more shares last summer, so depending if they recommend 3.8 that is actually a rise. Of course no specials indicated until half year results in the summer.

Still hanging ... Let's see what gets said next week re 2020 results. Interesting to see what they announce re dividend. I suspect they will make up some of the lost dividend from last year, as there is no issue with cash.

Personally, I would like management to review the OoH business. It ties up working capital, and is frequently subject to goodwill write downs. One wonders if this piecemeal acquisition of minor brands and / or distribution infrastructure is paying off. Not clear to me (of course I'm not privy to the Board's strategy), but have they been buying minor brands to acquire distribution infrastructure and build OoH operations. Or are they buying minor brands with a view to growing them, then rationalising the acquired operations infrastructure and taking write downs. Seems that a strategy review might help. Either a restructuring of OoH operations to improve efficiency and return on capital, or offload OoH and focus on developing the base Vimto offering and brand management. Be interesting to see a detailed breakdown of volumes by brand in OoH channel, verses capital tied up.

High inflation is a precursor to high interest rates, like day follows night. The problem arises when debt needs to be either repaid, or rolled over at higher rates. Both scenarios have negative consequences for cash distribution to shareholders.

My last contribution to the debate. A 10% dividend is historical, and has nothing to do with future dividend distributions. It is nearer to impossible, than likely, that the share price will remain steady and a 10% dividend paid out each year. Either income seekers will pile in and drive the share price upwards, or inflation will force IMB to restructure its debt and use any free cash flow to pay it down, therefore reducing the dividend and likely the share price with it. Of course, IMHO.

Unfortunately the Analysts don't set the share price, the market does. Either way, we will see how it plays out.

I reckon the dividend is in the price, its been all but confirmed and likely to be similar to last dividend paid 3.8p (X 2 with no specials of course this year). Which is a good result if you take into consideration the equity raise of around 14% last summer. As for any SP increase, you have to accept that builders are a political stock, the media are always painting them as villains for profiteering and shoddy workmanship, and the analysts glass is always half empty. This does affect sentiment for most of the time, however at some point the market will recognise the solid value and re rate accordingly. That could be weeks, months or years.

You just have to suck it up, whilst knowing that they are much better businesses that previously as they are unlikely to get caught with unsold stock in any downturn. They have adapted to a build just in time model, which enables them to generate solid profits and fund working capital from revenues, i.e. no debt required.

Wimps still have something to prove to the markets given their eventual back tracking on the much hyped Central London business. They committed large amounts of capital just as Brexit and then COVID came along. Bad luck if you're generous. Wimps also like to hold a large land bank which does expose them to some risks other builders prefer to avoid. Of course if we have a steady housing market gradually increasing inflation without Brexit and Covid type distractions, a long land bank can prove to be an advantage by improving margins.

Because they have a large land bank, their balance sheet is strong (unless they need to take future land write downs which would affect Wimps more than other builders), they could be a target for private equity. UK housing market solid in times of calm, low interest rates, no debt ,over £50bn of revenue embedded in land bank. PE could re engineer the business and strip out large amounts of cash for little equity whilst loading up on debt, before selling back to the market at some point in the mid term, say 5 - 7 years hence if conditions calm. Of course, current shareholders end up losing out if that happens.

IMHO, best to tuck them away as a long term hold and the return will be very good over the medium to long. The inbuilt volatility (caused by the above sentiment), also offers excellent trading opportunities to juice the overall returns. Twice last year the SP dipped to around £, and rose to around mid £1.60p. Easy money if you are patient.

Sort of depends how they handle their large stake in Hammerhead, sell off for what they can get and take a write down or persevere. However, it's hard to see how Hammerhead can exploit its assets given the Canadian Governments embargo on further development, or Biden's block on Canadian to US pipelines infrastructure.

Interesting to note that Shanghai Dalu Futures just announced they have built a $1bn position in Copper futures. Maybe the VLX market has reacted re potential impact on copper pricing. Might settle down later in the day once the full position better understood

Hi Man for all Occasions. Hmmm, not sure about "nothing fundamentally changed with the business ..." As each year goes by less people smoke, tax increases on the product, failing attempts to convince the market that "Vape" substitutes are growth area, given there is little barrier to entry of the Vape market it becomes commodity with commodity type margins, ESG headwinds etc. Then look at the very high debt, at some point it needs repaying, or rolling over providing another potential crisis point (at least in the market's eyes).

As for ~10% dividend, its 10% for a reason when ~$17trillion AAA Bonds are issued at negative interest. If the market respected IMB then it would be treated like a proxy Bond, or Utility which would help put a floor under the share price. Clearly that is not the case.

IMHO, sometimes you win on trades and sometimes you lose. It generally pays to accept this truism and move on. As we all know, it is the market that sets the share price, not wishful thinking by retail investors.