Member Info for WhiteMan

FairAnalyst is a great person, always reading good input from his side and objective conclusion, even when I come along with some conspiracies from telegram ^^

btw did you guys know corona is fake?

LSE shows trades closer to the bid as sells and trades closer to the ask as buys, so you shouldn't really use that as an ultimate guide if people are buying or selling, its just how LSE registers and categorizes trades.

@FairAnalyst

Good point with the EIA, there should be no way there is fundraising without even having clarity that they are allowed to drill in Block V. People should believe what PM said they would do, which is focusing on Heron development and moving from explorer to producer.

PS: If you get shaken out by volatility, MM will catch you as there was also a drop from 4p to 2.7p the months before EL news came out. Don't have limit sell orders open, if you believe in this IMHO.

ATB

If I remember correctly Matd said it would focus on Heron first and use its resources there. They also would not have nudged the rns yesterday if they would destroy sp again with a placing, which it definitely would.

Funny how both of you don't seem to get my point that placing overhang and profit-taking is a normal thing and happening right now. They don't have to have all their shares visible in L2, they will deleverage over the next few days so don't be disappointed if you have to wait for news for this thing to pop, as it should be.

But I guess thinking about correlations is hard and just saying this will be double figures also gets more likes I guess and yes this will be at least double figures with news but through solely anticipation I don't see that happening without clearing placing overhang. I for myself did my part and purchased my (hopefully) last tranche today as I don't think overhang will be sold cheaper than this.

IMO
ATB

Approximately 300mio shares were issued at the placing. IMO most of the subscribers haven't paper-handed their shares when it dipped and are now selling at a good 30% profit. 4.20p seems like a good selling point for them and now they derisk their own investment. That's the only reason I can come up with to explain the 4.20p barrier (today). It also balances the anticipation. So it is still a waiting game for more RNS to come out and until then I don't expect this to hit 6.3p like Zac Mir anticipated, which btw is just the market cap that it was after EL. This will shoot on news high up, but not through anticipation alone as the overhang is still pretty huge IMO and there are still too many risks for the "bluechips" guys as they are involved with more money.

ATB

Yeah it is like somebody here said a little "nod" in the right direction where sp should be, but wells have to be announced with a timeline and finally drilled for bigger sp appreciation. People shouldn't overvalue the last rns. Most of us here are waiting since the placing and that was a long and sometimes painful time but know it's just 3-5 months max for the well to be finalized and sp appreciation will maybe already come when plans are announced between now and end q1.

The company (Matd) endorsed the opinion, that's why they pushed it as RNS.

I went back to the quote:
"Hamm, it feels like you're reading my mind. It's really unbelievable but your comment not only coincided with my thoughts, but also appeared just few minutes late when I threw out 205K of this garbage today. Being sure as you are that the price could fall to 1p, and if I decide to return this garbage, I will return it doubled. Have a lovely day too, mate."

and it was indeed not written by you, but by Manro.

Sorry that I did associate you with that! I don't even know why tbh.

ATB

So there is no talking about no drilling for Petro China! Seems to be false spread info on the Telegram Group at least the translation part! That's why I thought the extra effort to upload it here was worth it, as I didn't want to trust the source blindly either. They just have to send in their proposal for environmental protection till, well, last Monday but I am very positive that they did this. So sorry guys for spreading false information and maybe I will reopen another thread to update but reading a whole thread should be a known skill. Thank you very much, Jimi for your input! What do you think about the authenticity of the document? But either way, this document has lost its importance for this share IMO.

How did you translate it btw? Can you really speak Mongolian? :O if yes I'm impressed!

ATB

Well good for you! Would have been a shame if you sold, but maybe I would have gotten my order filled :D. Anyway, I am happy for you that you held on because sentiment on this BB was very negative and I can understand that some poor souls sold because they were influenced by that negative sentiment!

@FairAnalyst

"The Document of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature, Environment, and Tourism, which is supposedly a letter from local authorities (to higher-ups?)"

To be clear from who the letter is written is kind of clear, it's the regional office of Dornod Police and Environment Department. But to whom it is addressed is just a guess by my side. MRPAM does not have a solo rule on who can drill and who can not. Mongolia has a constitution that is very similar to Frances and Germanys which would mean that Environment Departments have the last say and can prohibit any drilling. Sure those things can always be overturned by politicians but MRPAM itself has to obey orders from other departments too (IMO).

Maybe I will call the Environment Department in Dornod Aimag they should be able to clear things up, but who knows if they are able to communicate with me and you are totally right that Environment Departments can be easily overlooked for the "greater good".

Either way, there will be interesting news hopefully sooner than later, which will clear things up. I just hope people don't see it as a big loss, when we don't get the JV that many people here want and people realize that JV is not the driving thing for share price appreciation, it's a successful well.

FYI I just looked up Dornod-Aimag and that is the regional district of eastern Mongolia. Heron field is in this district but Red Deer Field is in another district.
But it's not just the tiny local government.

We will see what MB does and I am kind of confident in him, but selling out for cheap (as he did in some ways with the placing, even tho it gave me a nice entry) would be a shame.

PS: Is there any way to make the window bigger, while writing posts? I would proof read way more if the scrolling wouldn't be such a hassle in that small window

ATB

Manro if I remember correctly but no I am just fairly new to the LSE Aim market, I started to invest after the Covid crash and was more on the US markets and only moved over to AIM after finding some good share talks about AIM stocks if you know what I mean ;). For the most part, I didn't think I would post much on BB generally, but with MATD I'm hugely invested so I also take interest in the stock and try to inform people about my views.

You should know I had a limit order open for 500k shares at 2.61 while manro hamm and badprohet were selling but MM had higher priority than me I guess as 200k shares went through at 2.6. Can someone explain that to me btw as it seemed to me my order wasn't live and I trade through IBKR. I just should have paid the spread! But I got those shares at 3.3 and 3.5, so its not that heavy of a burden.

PS: Manro ain't gonna post here anymore, so you are right to search for him on another usernames. BTW don't you think NEL seems more like Manro? :D Just came to my mind writing this.

"its still a risky share" = "this gonna be soon 2p"
Seem to have the same vibe.

ATB

iamrich you scare me with the 100% positive. I would have at least 4 shares, to be honest to this mantra ;D. But you are totally right and with MATD I'm also 100% positive that they will achieve their goals. The fundamentals are all there we already have a flow test made years ago and chances for a successful well are really high. It's just a waiting game now and not selling for a good profit but waiting for results and hoping to sell for a tremendous profit. As known high risk equals high rewards.

Hey jimi thx,

Im not really sure what you mean, you just have to replace the stars with "ibb". It works fine for me, but I dont know if its maybe a uploader problem, that it is not freely available?
Which site would you suggest for me to upload the picture again.
Thanks for the heads up

The rise in this share is not (for the most part) because of the rising oil part but because of the anticipation of drilling in q2 and news about the drilling in q1. If you don't believe MATD has a real chance to drill and produce Oil in q2 then this is the best moment for you to sell your shares in a rise up. Either way making a non-sensical post like this is still a risky share let you seem kind of dull. Yes, this is still speculative as we are on the move from explorer to producer and we all here know that things can go south very fast on this share and in general trying to move from one stage to another.

This post is not deramping its just a PI that is not good informed about the shares he invest, which is not that big of a deal as I think we all hold shares where we aren't really sure what is going on.

@FairAnalyst

"Regarding shared infrastructure, again referring to the Investor Meet presentation (interviews & written sections), the Govt of Mongolia 'effectively owns' said infrastructure and are hence on both sides of the negotiations, hence no issues faced or expected."

Very good point, I didn't know that, but that does certainly reassure that we aren't on the faith of PC.

You are totally right to not join Telegram groups for stock as they are most of the time just echo chambers, but as I said I joined because of the document. Now we don't really know what is written on it and have to believe the translation provided and also have to believe that it is an official document, which isn't confirmed by any means as you and I both probably don't know how official paperwork looks like over there. Maybe I will pay some guy on fiver to translate it, but I hoped, that somebody here has the skills to translate it a second time, but another translation seems crucial and doesn't cost that much so I will probably do that in the short term future.

As you can see on the document picture itself, it is dated at 5.1.2022, so that throws any past plans to farm in with Petro China out of the window, or do you think PC will be allowed to drill under our provision?

You also seem to totally disregard the political aspect of this whole operation. Mongolia wants to be independent of its big neighbor China and not have more ties with it. China tries to trap neighboring countries in debt and control them through it and sentiment in the region begins to change.

If you claim that PC JV is on the door you have to disregard the document provided, which is totally legitimate but I think the probability that it is fake is also not that high.

If a JV is happening what do you think will be the farm-out agreement? Certainly not 50/50! That would be harmful instead of helpful. I know this is a relatively small company but we have assets, funding, and if the well is successful time and good chances for debt financing. IMO Mongolian government and Petrovis themselves are interested in a NO-stake for PC, as ties are not always that happy and drilling is prohibited for PC in 2022.

My point is that JV is only likely if the document is fake and you seem not to regard this fact much. But if you believe the document, then Petro China is prohibited from doing any drilling work in 2022.

Personally, I also don't like being in Telegram groups, but the information provided was interesting enough for me to share it here and I wanted to hear your guy's input on it.

ATB

@ToblerRone
go to page 3 and search for the thread telegram

it seems to not have gotten the link at the end. Here it is again:
https://***.co/KDJ9fsq

*** = ibb

First of all, I recently joined the Telegram Group that was "promoted" (somebody asked for it) and the chat is a little bit rampy with alleged MM in the chat (at least they think they are), but there was one piece of information I already saw here and the reason why I even joined:
The Document of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature, Environment, and Tourism, which is supposedly a letter from local authorities (to higher ups?)

The translation (provided by someone in the Telegram group, who also posted the foto):
Dornod aimag's Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism has confirmed in this letter that it did not monitor mining projects before 2021.
According to the order No. A / 618 of the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism in 2019, there are no grounds for Petro Chinas's operations to continue in 2022.

Myagmarsuren Badamsuren
Dornod Aimag Environment
Dornod Police Department
Specialized Inspection Agency of Dornod aimag"

End of "meaning translation" more than word-for-word translation imo, but who knows.

Another quote I want to represent in this context that aligned with my opinion is:

"Just imagine if Petro China does farm in and get their own rigs to drill just 10 wells at ave 500bopd equivalent to 5000+ bopd 50/50 to petro china and matd, which would result in 2.5k bopd for Matad. Why would Matd even agree to that as it will only take them $10/20m to drill those holes themselves and keep 100% of the oil. Mike buck being very shrewd will want exceptional terms if he is going to give anything away.
That being like exploration and development of assets on a free stake with multifold return to Matd. Anything less then he will go it alone." (This message was written before the Document was added to the chat fyi)

One problem that was mentioned was the shared infrastructure which could give PC leverage over us, but as in the RNS stated and also pointed out in the Chat, there were talks about negotiating with multiple partners in that context so PC shouldn't be the only option.

Personally, I was always against a PC farm-in as the Chinese are a big mafia, and to do business with them has always obvious benefits, but often hold other huger disadvantages and potential for exerting pressure from the regime for various reasons, which there are many.

As it is, we are fully funded to do this project ourselves and the influx in revenue will make it way easier to get cheap money from banks as it is one of the most profitable oil exploitation, with low risk if initials wells are already installed.

I know many people would like a big brother to farm in as it gives a sense of security, but I see there is no good option for Matd with PC and I am certain MB sees this the same as I do.

This post is more an early heads-up that people shouldn't expect a JV with PC as they are prohibited anyway from drilling further rigs and wouldn't benefit matd.

Link to an extern upload of the Document (written in Mongolian):

Read the title and try to convince her. I tried it, when it was at 2.9p but I failed. I'm invited for dinner tonight and will show her this thread.
Her reasoning to not invest was "Mongolia is an unconstitutional state and you don't know what really is going on over there (only buy what you can see)". I already debunked the unconstitutional state but your input would be greatly appreciated.
Would be very happy if you guys had some better points than me, as this is soon about to fly.
ATB