Member Info for WelshFalcon

I'm with you @quantum.

Once we know about this latest capital raise - cost/dilution etc. I can then re asses. I do want to see some management changes too, though!

I was lucky (or maybe it was my own rules!) but I sold out after the previous unexpected raise came out of the blue. Having previous been told we were funded through to first production (which was to be Q1 2021 - still not happened!) to have an unexpected raise put this on my intensive care watch list. Ultimately I needed some cash for another prospect, so sold out at 26p. So, waiting to see what transpires and if it is enough to tempt me back in. Need the finance going forward to be fully explained and management controls/changes in place to prevent any more messes. Without this my cash will go elsewhere.

Nowhere enough information to be able to answer!

The simple answer is the market cap will be what the market decides on a day to day basis.

In deciding to buy or not at a price I would consider many factors. Some to get you thinking (by no means exhaustive):

Mine size and life of mine.
Ore reserves.
Mine design and costs of further development.
Management, management,management,management.
POG.
POG prospects.
Other mineral content (e.g.copper).
The e.g. copper prospects.
exploration prospects.
My expectations (am I a short term trader or long term investor)
Dividend or lack of or prospect of.
Location.
Juristriction and political stability.

Basically you make your own assessment of the whole prospect and decide if it is too expensive or cheap for you. With enough people (and institutions) all making their own judgements, the share price settles at a mean value - a sort of collective valuation). within this there will be some that think the price is too much so will trim their holding (Top slice, profit take etc. there are many names), and some that think the opposite so will add to their holding. News (or in many cases, the expectation of news) will push the mean value up or down, as will outside factors that may (or may not) affect some of the fundamentals of all companies in the relevant sector (e.g. easing of monetary policies).

It's a bit like the infinite number of monkeys given an infinite number of typewriters producing the complete works of shakespeare.

Successful long term investing is the art of juggling many bits of information in your head and having the courage to believe (sometimes when a critical mass of others thing otherwise). Will you lead the monkeys, or will you follow the monkeys - that is the question, whether 'tis nobler...............

Luverley Juberley

The MRE is very useful, but not the thing to focus on atm.

The PFS is the next big thing IMO. It gives the market a roadmap to production. It should tell us the how, why, when and costs for this mine and when cashflow should start.

This is the piece of the puzzle that allows the decision to mine to be firmed up, and allows institution investors to make their decisions allowing them to point to the PFS as justification (plus their add on forecasts etc).

Further MRE updates post PFS will serve to increase the size and the life of mine metrics. Prior to PFS will not add much other than the comfort blanket of X.XXmoz!

Here is the Australian Potash presentation at the currently running Diggers and Dealers conference.

https://youtu.be/lRuTpJGVAxk

Note that their slides showing their funding includes an amount of contingency funding. He also stresses their focus on derisking in various ways, not just the offtake sales in place, but they have addressed cost overruns and performance delays.

This looks like a properly managed project!

So, there is competition for funding from other salt potash operations - our emergency funding will not be flavour of the month = excessive expense???

LOL @ALWHIZZ, That was a tongue in cheek 'baseless prediction'.

If it does come true, I may have to eat said Tea Leaves!

'but ours is much more fertile'

The internet stole some of my words!

Calm down - look at what we do have.

The grass is always greener..... but is much more fertile!

Now, why would they need an access road there? What do they know that we don't?

Did someone say"let put an access road into Black Hills". Why? Why not? Something justifies the expense, doesn't it?

Lots of juicy news to come over the rest of this year!

It's all relative @crowfoot.

If you can afford to put up, say less than a new car, without any adverse effect on your long term financial well being then why not go all in (if you are the optimist type).

If you go all in with your entire SIPP and only don't have enough income/time to repair any damage, then all in is a very bad idea!

Very true, there is a lot of drill head data with TrueScan. But also the Geo's checking through and examining every drill core in detail.
That's why they have a comprehensive core shed (more like a large covered area. All essential information needed to direct and focus which holes, where and how many.
This is not the Aussie Gold Hunters type exploration, entertaining though it is, this is the real deal and no mining company puts in this much effort in this short a time frame unless they see a massive upside.

You never know @ Jersey.

GGP may come up with the ultimate 'out of Haieron' experience! As in "You'e heard all about Havieron, but look here too....."

@Bamps, It's all getting a bit much for my not fully awake brain this morning!

All I can see at the moment is we have a tier1, it is being mined (although they haven't officially admitted it yet), We now have 3 more targets in the JV tenement, that is aside from the out of Havieron prospects (Juri, SWAG etc). All this and I have built up a sizeable holding on a free carry. I will be a buyer for the long term.

This rollercoaster is one hell of a ride.

They've been blown off! I may be becoming unhinged!

3, not just the smaller target on the famous screen protector that we knew about, but 3. Yes 3 Havieron targets within the tenement. We are going to need a few more drill rigs!

With what we have so far, open at depth and rapidly expanding, Camp in place, infrastructure going in, road going in, NCM already have 60% and will end up with 70% ----- If you was SB, where would your preference be to drop in a few exploration drills. Here or other tenements? I know what I would do.......

Any ideas why Google shows 'No data' for today?

Markets are open over there, the Dow is moving south atm.

Oh, they will lend. Of course they will.

You just need to wait and see how high the risk premium they will want! The eventual cost may be very high when they look carefully at the track record of emergency funding calls!

We need to know the size of the problem and the cost to be able to evaluate.

Would you commit to buying a car without knowing what size car you are buying and how much you are going to pay? Nuts.

I feel for you @Quantum.

I was one of the lucky ones and got out after the last raise. Having been led to believe that we were fully funded through to first production (was supposed to be Q1, 2021) to have a sudden capital raise land put a higher rick factor on this one for me. The product is great, the territory is great, the market is good, everything is (or should be) in place. The management is now the big risk for me, too many broken promises and missed deadlines. After the last raise, I'd put this one into my 'intensive care' box. Ultimately I needed some cash for anther opportunity so sold out.

I'd love to get back in, but need some comfort about the management going forward! What other surprises may pop up and bite us? Past performance does not give me confidence. I'm hoping that the Institutional investors, faced with another emergency raise, slipping deadlines and reduced production forecasts, take up the reins to force some kind of review/management change that can provide confidence. I'll come back in if that happens.

The price is less of a concern for me. Yes, 7p would be lovely (depending on how big any dilution has to be suffered), But i'd be happy at twice that if it is an investable proposition. So I'm sitting on my hands until we get some positive news.

I have seen too many companies go under when they messed up the finance with everything else being fine. Finance and contingency planning is right up at the top of a BOD's responsibilities!

Yeah. Right.

With an unknown amount of capital raise/loan at unknown cost leaving the company open to a predatory takeover!

You really think that is good advice? Unless, of course, you are a day trader just after a marginal increase at the expense of others.

I'd rather they put up the cash to cover the emergency funding requirement. Correct their errors so that the investors don't get shafted with excessive cost/dilution that should never have happened.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/565595-former-trump-official-says-just-a-matter-of-time-before-unvaccinated-get

Brett Giroir, former President Trump’s coronavirus testing czar:

“If you have not been vaccinated, and you have not had COVID before, you will get the delta variant,” Giroir argued. “This is so infectious that you will get it.”

“It is just a matter of time,” he argued. “Remember, you can get the flu every year. It’s not because your immunity isn’t good, it’s because the flu changes, and delta is really a new strain that is different than everything we’ve seen.”

SNG is going to be very useful, particularly in the US.