Member Info for WelshFalcon

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Agreed @1eyed.

I'm waiting to see what (if anything) they pull out of the hat. The hat may well prove to be empty, though.
Options:
1) Some sort of emergency funding cobbled together. It will be ugly and expensive and will likely impact profitability once production starts and will make funding for development of other lakes difficult.
2) Current II's get serious, put up a line of credit but with their own team in place to get things back on track. Where this will leave PI's is anyone's guess!
3) New CEO appointed and full review of operations/funding by the new man/team.

Don't get me wrong, this is a great project, great product with a good market ready to buy. This is simply a poorly managed operation falling at the very last hurdle. It can be rescued, but I have little confidence with the existing team being able to find something workable in the mythical magician's hat.

Absent any further news about this emergency funding round there will be little appetite for buyers.
Until we know the cost and quantum of this, along with a credible plan with updated forecasts, this will simply drift lower and lower.

A change in leadership plus a full financial and management review would help, but IMO rudderless ship for now (and not far off the rocks either!).

Well, he's out of luck!

The cat landed, didn't bounce, it flatlined.

If he tried to trade on a bounce...... LOL.

Sure, dead cats do bounce, but not that high.

@Latino, you seem to misunderstand the basics of valuing a company.

We don't know how much of a funding shortfall there is. We haven't been told.
We don't know how many shares they are going to have to issue to raise the (unknown amount of) capital needed. So with reduced productivity, over a longer period of time we don't know what income number to use. Even if we could make a wild stab at the MCAP, we don't know what the fully diluted shares in issue will be post this emergency funding. So there is now way of working out the sp.

If this is left for 6 months = disaster!

Who would invest on that basis?

Very bad management IMO. Even the S04 twitter feed is crazy, their description is still showing Q1 2021 for first production!

This all needs sorting now.

@Latino.

If you were to invest, on what basis do you make a valuation to decide?
Awaiting funding, so is this to be a loan? If so what is the cost implication on P&L?
If to be an issue, how much dilution? at what price?

SO where do you pitch the price point to buy in? 16p? 7.72p? (i.e. now) 5p?

You just don't know until the funding details are known. This simply means the only buyers will be speculators/gamblers until we get clarity on this funding. More sellers than buyers means this will keep going down until we have numbers to rely on.

Waiting until year end is a big NO.

From the RNS "As a result of the revised pond ramp-up schedule and associated delayed plant feed salt availability, forecasted SOP production for FY'22 has been reduced and the Company will require further funding before the end of 2021 to continue operations at Lake Way. "

So yes, they need the funding now so that it is in place before the end of 2021.

This sort of woolly thinking and lack of having a contingency in place (for a new plant that may have commissioning delays) is why we are here. So lets just wait until nearer year end shall we, and panic fund then?

I don't think that this is as bad as SXX!

All the infrastructure and plant is in place along with offtake agreements (assuming they survive a production delay). We just need to see what the cost of this mismanagement is this time!

It does raise a question mark over future plans (post Lake Way production starting). How is funding going to be managed ramp up and development of our other assets? Will we continue to have the same 'unforeseen' events without proper contingency funding in place?

But, yes, destroying value in this way does leave us open to a predatory takeover.

Should we be looking for a new CEO?

So the young and fit can happily go visit granny, go unmasked wherever, incubate and release new variants to whoever they meet!

The way to stop a virus is to disrupt it's transmission - from everyone - not to give it a path to mutate and replicate.

Leave it to the experts.......

My thoughts:

We seem to have a CEO with overly optimistic views. Is it twice, now we have been led to believe that we were fully funded to first production?

This latest mess seems to be simply an expected glitch in commissioning a newly constructed plant where quality of feedstock and processing efficiency should be tested and adjusted. This is not an unexpected event - so why was there not some contingency funding in place for just this sort of event?

I am at a loss to understand, having stopped trading on both ASX and AIM, we have a resumption of trading on one platform only? This being prior to any agreement on this (yet another) emergency funding. Aim, being a volatile and highly reactive platform, will now show a value and MCAP for the company based on rumour and speculation. Meanwhile S04 are trying to negotiate additional funding. Surely it would be best for all shareholders to negotiate the funding before a resumption of trading? The current way may well produce excessive dilution by using a low value derived from AIM, rather than a negotiated funding package guiding the market over value with a resumption of trading after agreement!

There will be little appetite to invest until the funding situation is known with consequent downward pressure on pricing until known. This reducing value is going to be considered by any potential funding party. Have we just been plunged into a downward spiral?

Very poor leadership.

Therein displays the total misunderstanding!

Vaccines do not stop infection "one that stops infections and death at every age". What they do is train your immune system to recognise the virus and produce the antibodies required to defeat the virus before it does too much damage.

As for a vaccine that is as effective "at every age", biology just doesn't work that way.

Leave it to the experts, I say.

But, who knows? An unexpected expense (car flooded out in the storms, as an example) doesn't crop up when GGP's sp is at an all time high.

It's only the price of a new mid range electric car ffs.

Politics of envy methinks!

Maybe GGP should pencil this team in for a sponsorship deal for the next games. From first gold to first gold sort of thing?

Still a 50% risk weighting, I see.

So with the PFS in place, plus decision to mine, plus update to the MRE all by year end, what will they use then?

Doc. "I sorry, Sir. It's covid I'm afriad"

Patient. "Bugger. Just get me a stockbroker. Sell everything and buy SNG."

The Baby Trump is strong with this one today!

Err, you posted it.

You ended it with "Either way, this is a very bad sign. Stay safe".

2 points, by posting this, you reveal your mindset.
second point, it is not a 'very bad sign' completely the opposite. They are doing what any governing body is expected to do with proper forward contingency planning.

Perhaps you didn't complete your 'Trump school of misinformation and misdirection correspondence course'?

Yes you did. You intimated that 'they KNOW something' They don't, it's just forward contingency planning.

You pose the question: Naturally, one wonders what "excess deaths situation" the London City government is anticipating? Oh, and why does the contractor need to be able to provide "rapid deployment?"

Again just forward contingency planning, which you try to highlight in a negative fasion.

We can all read what you wrote.

This I find very encouraging. Yes, we can all spin a negative out of it, as you have tried to do, but it is indicative of an awakening in forward planning.

Quote: "This will be a contingency contract, only called upon in the event that an excess deaths situation arises in the future and existing local body storage capacity needs to be augmented."

So they are beginning to plan ahead to have all the pieces in place for the if/when/maybe another pandemic or other event causing excess deaths. Excellent, learning lessons from experience.

Now, as and when SNG gets through it's phase 3 and is proven to be the only real effective therapeutic for Covid (and virus agnostic for all respiratory viruses, including the Flu), this sort of mindset will produce a need to stockpile SNG. It is certainly an argument that our BOD can put forward and can back up with this kind of contingency planning.

Perfect.....