Member Info for WelshFalcon

A buy out of GGP is highly unlikely. Hav along with all the other prospects we have plus Tasmania are all very difficult to value, even more so when you factor in the increasing value of gold! NCM will not be able to justify to their shareholders any value on a ROI basis that would be acceptable to our BOD.

If there is an offer, our share price will adjust to just below the offer. This will give all those that are looking for their 35p a chance to cash out by selling their shares. The real investors will remain and will eventually get proper shareholder value over the long term.

Plus ca change!

Expect all the usual stuff. Me, me, me. Best testing has given high results, less testing needed. etc. etc..

I'm going to start using that title to describe something big.
Question: "how big is that?"
Answer: "Havieron Huge mate, you can't get bigger."

I think the important takeaway is that going forwards prior to the MRE is highly important. This is way ahead of the farm in stages and only goes to prove/signal that NCM are prepared to put the investment in for an exploration decline. Their confidence level is very high, to push forward this early (and commit resource) before gaining the 70% (from the farm in agreement) is a massive vote of confidence from them.

Yup.
Up to now we had a gold discovery. Without a published MRE, we are moving rapidly to mine. Fabulous news!

Would that be a bald top or tail? Or is it the full Duncan Goodhew?

You are tarring all with the wrong brush!

There is nothing wrong with private investors. They do their research and invest for the long term.

The people you are having a go at are the traders, chasing a quick %age and off to the next one. I prefer to call them gamblers.

It's not the horses you need to worry about. The sheep in the lower field next door are all huddled together by the far fence. I'm pretty sure they are talking about me. Doris, the sheep dog, says they know all about my latest top ups and shake their heads a lot.

Thanks, Flashy.

I must remember that one too.

Miagi:

"The rest of you can rot." Tells us all a lot about you!

Try reading this and learn to behave a bit better.

https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46473/if---

!0 downing street twitter showing live press conference (Bojo) about to start. Probably about the northern lockdowns, but you never know.

Exactly Paddy, and many other options of dealing with this.
Leave as is with split ownership.
Spin off Hav to a separate mining company owned by NCM/GGP.
Sell Hav, with a long term royalty agreement.
New Farm In deal on Scally (or parts of) with better share/improved terms on Hav JV.

So much can happen/be negotiated. The binary view of NCM buy out is the most remote event IMO.

For the two newbies who started this thread, beware.

Click on Miagi365's profile. Also new, since 3rd July. 349 posts since then, read through some. They look to me mostly negative.

Personally, I suspect ulterior motives from this one!

Oh and also there is nothing for them to apologise for! This is hindsight thinking, always dodgy.

At the time they took out the hedge, it was a good deal. They, and none of us, would have been able to predict the events that have caused such a massive change in world economics.

Basically, S**t happens!

Actually not losing that much. Telfer produces Dore, which is sold on to a refiner. Telfer can never achieve the spot price of gold as they do not fully refine.

But, yes, the hedge is probably now below what they could achieve. I'm not how much of the hedge is remaining, I suspect not enough to worry about for the long term. Also not sure if it applies to any toll processed ore or only just Telfer's own ore.

Lots more to consider than a simple comparison to the gold spot price.

Some people just like to hang on to a conspiracy. It covers up and helps to excuse any bad decisions they make.

Me, I'd rather say, "damn, I called that wrong!" and have a nice cup of tea. Fretting and blame shifting are not good for the soul.

It took lots of tries to top up on my HL account!

Finally got in at 195.

Just to illustrate the other opportunities that NCM may want to look at, if they are after increasing in ground gold reserves, don't we have a couple of nice juicy ripe apples waiting to be picked in Tasmania?

Don't get me wrong, we will be on his 'to do list'. They need to ready, just in case.

Just don't expect them to move for a good while yet.

Besides, as long as the farm in is running, NCM have first refusal on lots of other prospects we have in Scally. A forced buy out may well put that in jeopardy too.

Fodder for all the 'they want to buy us out now' theories.
Not going to happen, unless their hand forced by an outside bid.

This is a normal position for a company this size. With the current commercial environment (covid etc.) along with the increasing price of gold, there will be many opportunities for them to explore. ROI will be the key driver as well as increasing their ore reserves. In this respect, HAV is sorted - minimum capital needed to progress through all the farm in stages to get them 70%. Their available capital for M&A activity will be better used elsewhere.

Yes, in 3 years or so when HAV is producing, they can easily sort out a royalty type buy out for HAV, made much more cost effective when they have positive cashflow from HAV.

They may WANT to buy HAV, but they don't NEED to buy HAV at the moment. Any decisions they make on capital projects will have to justify to their shareholders, trying to value HAV at this stage, and come up with a number our board can recommend is going to be at a high cost. Very difficult to justify!

There will be lots of other fish for them to catch in their traps long before they NEED to deal with HAV.