Member Info for WelshFalcon

Rio big enough for you?

The problem here is you are trying to shoehorn an evolving situation into a plan that wasn't designed for what has happened!

Basic answer is that hey need a new plan.

A nice problem to have in that Hav is bigger than expected and NCM want to move quicker than originally expected. I'm sure that our BOD can navigate through this without too much drama!

I see something different!

Looking at NCM overall, milled ore down, AISC up. Great assets, great people/skills, Good exposure to gold price upside (hedge is minimal). So excluding the Hav potential, an OK performance, but not great. I'd say fairly neutral for their share price.

Now, looking at Hav, clearly SB is pushing ahead with proving this up, drilling to depth (is this the unreported SW holes) nut giving little away other than the decline ate this year/early next. Hav IMO is a major part of NCM's future and will return Telfer to a tier 1.

My read is that SB is looking over his shoulder at a potential of a larger miner (Rio perhaps) with deep pockets going after NCM itself.

Interesting stuff.

They have been recruiting for a while, now. Looks like at least one of the top jobs has been filled.

I lived most of my younger and teenage days in Nigeria (parents worked there). Early adult days in the merchant Navy, so have worked in all conditions. However, never too far from an airconditioned building/cabin, so had it easy I guess.

But yes, to hot dry heat coming off the Sarah as we sailed a few miles off the west african coast is an experience. Oh and you can smell Africa from about 15 miles offshore too!

Fabulous beach - I'll be off to Saundersfoot, there be ice cream there too!

Wonderful to live in a place with the best beaches (off season at Barafundle - heaven).

Spare a thought for our brave drilling teams at Hav (and hopefully Scally too).

West Wales here, a balmy 27 degrees. Trying to mow the lawn before forecast thunderstorms. I keep having to stop to rehydrate and rest as it's a bit hot out there for me. Will head to the beach soon (lucky boy).

How do our driller teams cope without shade, in around 40 degree temperatures? A heck of a long way from a cool drink on a beach too. I raise my sunhat to them all and will raise a glass this evening as well.

Nice top up at 13.06. Happy bunny!

NCM due when? Tomorrow late evening or is it Friday?

Good question, Bamps.

Short answer, no idea! This 'farm in' train (the JV doesn't actually start until after the farm in) is gathering speed, but it is not clear who will pay for the (exploration) decline. It is clear that NCM wants to get underground asap.

I am sure that GH and SB will happily sort out the technicalities of this without too much trouble.

Just revel in the speed of this train. Don't forget, trains do take a while to stop if you need to apply the brakes!

It's not a question of belief.

Try and imagine the number of trades that go through a MMs books during the day. Then try and imagine how many people they will need to watch out for, interpret, and act upon these mythical codes. It just doesn't happen.

Most trades are done automatically when within the normal trading range for any particular stock. There may also be a balancing order/sale for a small number created by the system. To try and set up codes, manage them and act on them within the amount of trades going through at any one time is simply a silly notion.

I've got fairies at the bottom of my garden.

I have, honest.

The little girl from next door tells me that she talks to them and little girls never lie.

These 'codes' are utter dribble. It is either small trades or, more likely, MMs balancing their books having filled an order.

It would appear that he'll need to tip off a few of his mates before saying anything first! I believe dealings in Kodak shares before that announcement look dodgy and may be under investigation.

True, but an expectation of him acting in the best interests of the US (i.e. not himself) or doing anything logical is, in itself, illogical.

Yeah right!

And you really believed him? Expect him to actually follow through with what he says?

A little confusing, possibly a late reporting of this one showing earlier number totals (at the bottom)

I make it around 12% total from three Venrock linked entities - massive!

Telfer has more than enough capacity for whatever Hav can produce and more.

Besides that, with the gold price now over $2000 and predictions heading towards $3500, there will be no problem in funding expansion of the Telfer plant if this is required.

Not something that hits my worry dial - either plenty of capacity or easily dealt with.

We are well ahead of the game. Just look at the speed and investment that NCM have used to drive our Farm In agreement. With the prospect of producing some ore for Telfer within the next 18 months (could well be 12), they are highly unlikely to drop everything for another prospect.

Yes, they will JV / farm in with other prospects to provide long term reserves in the area and prevent others picking off prospects. But they will likely progress these at more normal timescales.

Bodes well for us, with a good relationship, for preferential treatment on our other prospects too.

TMT, snap!

Concurrent typing, methinks.

Tom, it's all about risk and reputation. Their clients will make investment decisions based on what their broker says.

If they get it wrong, not good for them. I expect that the risk of getting it wrong, this close to NCM's results announcement, will be high enough to prevent them releasing their valuation(s). When that risk reduces, they will release.