Member Info for WelshFalcon

Nice thought, but Solg is NCM's now problem. It will a good couple of years before a new Farm in/JV on Scally will start to motor.

As I said, they're the white knight.

It's all in the timing, they'll likely want to see a few drill results first for SW, likely will need to see the MRE on Hav. That's just for us, but for NCM as well - still some question marks over their other projects especially the capex they need for them, then there is always the solg problem to become a bit clearer.

NCM may well come out ahead, but if headwinds increase........

This is all why there will be no buy out of Havieron or GGP from NCM, certainly not now. Maybe, if all works well for NCM, sometime after 5 years.

The capital committed elsewhere to simply maintain their production levels doesn't leave much room for SB to go after more asset. The underlying (implied) plan is bold and with an increasing Gold price it may well succeed.
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Key to it all is solving the Telfer problem. Bingo! Havieron is the least capital intensive project which has the best chance of success. Not only that it may just (if enough cash and manpower is thrown at it) come in on time to feed the the Telfer beast. It may even make the remaining Telfer reserves worthwhile adding another 5 years, say, to their LOM. If it does come in on time, it will stabilise NCM's balance sheet.

Then there is the bonus, maybe (just maybe) one of our targets in the SW area comes in where NCM have first refusal on. Another low capital addition to their ore reserves.

Gentlemen, GGP is pivotal in the future of NCM. Nothing will be done to harm our Farm in and consequent JV. Buy out(s) from NCM will not happen until spare capital becomes available - 5 years plus IMO.

If this ambitious plan fails - there is a white knight waiting in the wings! I'm sure, at the right price and with the right timing, Rio would happily pick up both NCM and GGP.

For us - Hav will be mined, and very soon. We have to be the most de-risked gold play on AIM ever!

FUN!

Very interesting indeed, Paddy.

If Rio are still looking for gold as well as add to their copper production, along with their holdings in the area, plus Winu.......

The mind boggles!

I like this bit: "Accounts disagree on exactly how big the Kraken really is, but one thing is certain: It’s huge. Descriptions go from vague (the length of 10 ships) to more specific (a mile and a half long)."

https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/67371/15-kraken-facts-and-myths-unleash-conversation

You carry on, Schlem.

The virus doesn't care much, it will replicate and it will do it's best to pass from host to host.

Those of us who do our best to prevent further infections, such as aiding the track and trace systems, will be better protected and will help slow down the virus.

Those of you that disrupt any preventative measures, Civil liberties my a****, are more likely to come into contact and contract the virus.

Darwin's Evolution working in all it full glory.

I know which side I'm on. Good luck mate!

Er.... lost for words! Really?

I think they find it funny, the black square of doom appeared with much debate but we still have no idea! I think that, after a couple of beers, some of the off duty drillers went out and spray pained a large black square just to mess with our heads.....

Politically very damaging to impose any retroactive tax as well, so highly unlikely.

The potential effect on the market would deter them too. If a large number of ISA holders have to sell stock to cover a retroactive tax assessment..... well it just isn't going to happen in reality.

T' young people of today won't believe that, Floater.......

Mush, will spy be there too? Maybe you'll need a code phrase to get in!

"Are the flowers blooming by Havieron lake today?"

My tea leaves concur.

Sandraker

Redirons, thanks.

In my meanderings through copper research there are two main drivers of this. The expected increase in demand for copper, firstly from increasing use of sustainable power and more electric cars etc. Copper will be needed in increasing quantities to fuel this expansion. The other is an unexpected consequence of Covid. As countries get out the other side of the pandemic, there will be need to reflate their economies. This has been done in the past with large scale capital projects (Hoover dam etc.). The expectation is that a lot of the expected infrastructure projects will revolve around renewables. Charging infrastructure for cars. Solar, wind and tidal power generation etc. Demand for copper over the next 10 - 20 years will be high.

Paddy, when this is all over and you publish your full history and exploration of Havieron, please use this as the title!

South of the Sand-dune by PaddyGall. Priceless.

TMT, well said. A broker will be a broker, end of.

SXX had an ambitious project that relied on regular funding rounds to complete. This is why I didn't invest, in my mind a flawed business plan. I was watching in case they got to a suitably funded/derisked stage, but they never got there.

It wasn't the broker, it was the business plan and management.

This illustrates, you must do your own research. If the business is viable, with the right people in charge, properly funded etc. etc. then it will work. If not, then there is higher risk (and higher potential reward). If you invest in higher risk companies, then expect some to fail. It is not somebody else's fault that you invested.

In My Opinion GGP is properly run, is properly and adequately funded, has the correct Farm In partner on HAV and is as derisked as can be. I am impressed with the management. Whoever the broker is is way down on my risk checklist.

I am in for the long haul, even if JPM get involved.

It's all good in any case.

I still think it's more of a wiggle room move. It's only 36m options in total vs a circa 3.8bn shares in issue. Only a small number of the 36m will need to be sold to take up the remainder options, so limited effect on price IMO.

Nothing nasty here at all. Could be tax reasons, but my guess is that there is quite a few expected announcements due from NCM and/or GGP during the run up to the original vesting date which gives them little or no time to act within the rules. They just need a bit of breathing space.

The take away message is that they still want the options so there is an expectation of value. If there was no expectation of value, they wouldn't need to do anything - just let the options expire quietly.

Elise1, I've done that a few times.

The trouble is each time I've got to the sell point, I haven't been able to find anywhere else that shows such promise. I think I've become a Magpie investor for GGP!

Thanks, Paddy.

I am interested in the basics of 'Toll processing' as, intuitively, can produce interesting results.

I have no actual knowledge, so this is simply my conjecture!

I assume that the toll process charge is made up from the total costs, both fixed and variable, of all the processing plant over the year (plus a profit/ buffer margin?) divided by the annual throughput.

Now, if this a charge per ton of ore, then it would be weighted towards the higher ore throughput, i.e. more cost to Telfer than Hav. Probably little change to an AISC metric for telfer vs their current.

If this is a charge per oz of output, then the weighting will be different. Less to Telfer, more to Hav (assuming the much higher grades that SB mentions). This would have an interesting effect, as it will reduce the AISC for Telfer and may therefore help extend Telfer's life.

It's a subtle difference, but may also reveal a further hidden benefit for NCM which does help cement a more harmonious JV!

Just my thoughts. of course.