Member Info for WelshFalcon

TMT, that all depends on how the fixed costs are allocated!

True if on ore throughput, but if on gold/copper production, then it will be more heavily weighed to Hav's ore. Bear in mind here that the normal industry standard AISC metric is a gold oz measurement.

Short answer Yes.

You can do all the calculations you like, using numbers pulled from wherever. Doesn't matter a jot.

Say you have found a lovely old classic car covered in crap at the back of a barn somewhere. You restore it, at great expense , to pristine showroom condition. You convince yourself that it is worth £50,000. If the best offer you can get is £8000, it is not worth what you convinced yourself that it was.

Simples.

The tricky bit is deciding when to harvest your Brassicas? After the stopping operation?

If you grow the potatoes in a potato tower, you can harvest them by block caving from the bottom.

https://www.cultivariable.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/irish-eyes-box.gif

We may no know where these holes are aimed and what they are going to do with them (yet). But, and this is a big but, we do know they are there. We do know there are fair number of them. We do know that they aren't exactly cheap.

We can infer that there has to be a good reason to a) start drilling there and b) continue drilling there. There has to be something interesting enough to expend the time, energy, and cash to drill in this way.

My hands are getting a little numb!

Spot on, Bamps21.

You can bean count all you like, use any permutations of numbers pulled from whatever source floats your particular boat, but you cannot ignore the real value that those in charge of budgets put on this.

The resource that NCM have been able to justify to their board, the effort and commitment they have thrown at this to reduce timelines speaks to me of much greater value than the amateur bean counters can show. SB / NCM want/need to get ore out of the ground very soon. Hav is where they are going for this, not any of their other farm in agreements. All this effort has to be justified by a real return to them, and to us too.

I'm just intrigued to see how big this really is!

Yes, perfectly possible and my favoured outcome. But.....

Assuming your numbers are correct, don't expect the full 5p as a dividend. GGP should keep back enough to afford all the drilling on existing prospects, purchase of more tenements, and operating costs. To grow the company organically within earnings and pay a dividend will be superb.

It's not just Telfer mine. It's the processing plant, the airport, all their infrastructure. Without ore to feed the beast, the maintenance costs / decommissioning costs / mothball costs will be a nasty drain on NCM's share value.

To magic up a tier 1 mine next door, with (as SB says) 10 time the grade (at least initially) with a potential 20 year life will be massive to NCM's bottom line and value. This is what Hav brings to the table. Along with that we have a strong prospect in Scally which NCM have first refusal on another JV!

You can have all the discussions you like over how long it takes to get the mine running, it all becomes unimportant in the context of the commercial imperative that Telfer is driving. SB needs ore in two years, period. If it is at all possible his engineers will find a way to do it. This is what is driving the warp speed drilling ("she canna take any more cap'n" Scotty, Star treck) and will in turn be massive to our value.

All IMHO, of course.

Also it's all about margin. Back in the 90's the POG was around the $300 mark. Not sure what a typical AISC was then, but to explore beyond the shallow deposits would have been more costly with too small a margin left.

Now we have more than enough margin to make deeper exploration viable. Not only that, but technology has moved on both on the drilling as well as the geophysicals available.

They knew it was there, just that it wasn't worth the effort to find out how much. GGP hit the sweet spot on timing!

95% here, but in my ISA only. My SIPP is much more sensible ( but still highly geared towards GGP!).

Strangely, GGP is my best mover today on a beer token basis (cash) but my modest (and speculative) play in Salt Lake (SO4) has popped up with a 12% so far today. Happy bunny.

All interesting stuff, I guess at some point (with a beer or two in hand) there will be a meeting where someone says "Ok, lets go with that one, then".

I'm assuming that a Works Manager will be focused on the 'nuts and bolts' of the operation on the ground, as it were. Not so much the location and direction of the decline, that would be more of a geological type decision.

I would imagine they have developed a few options on location and design of decline(s), more from an internal forward planning and budgeting exercise?

They also have other farm in agreements around Telfer, could just as easily be the secondaries. SB can't count on Scally just yet, but there is the lonely hols to the north that could do with a bit of company!

Ha! Bribery? Now that's a novel ramping strategy!

How does the quote go? "you're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off".....

Playing devil's advocate here. This may well be a red herring as far as Haveiron is concerned. The total CAPEX that NCM needs to come up with to start getting ore through Telfer is tiny in comparison with what will be needed for Alpala.

If the SOLG deal made sense before and NCM had found/allocated funding before, then there is no reason for this to change much. Especially with the much lauded expectation of increases in gold value. They may be simply getting another set of eyes to explore what opportunities there may remain. Could go either way, is my guess.

Funding for Hav is unlikely to be a problem whatever the outcome vs SOLG.

Joe, it was the spelling police, you used 'steel', not steal. Tut Tut.

avo, in all honesty you are only going to get silly prices. To come up with a proper estimate, we need to see the MRE on Hav (at least, possibly the PFS too), some credible idea of the if/when NCM take up their fair value 5% option. Oh, and some idea of what is really down there at SW (and a few others too) i.e. some drill results.

This is the current pricing conundrum!

There are a few posts popping up selectively using some numbers to show that directors are selling shares to imply that this is bad.

Don't panic. Just click click the GGP Directors Deals icon above. Real information provided to you here. Look at the last column which show the director's actual holding. you can scroll down and see that, over time, our directors have massively increased their holdings. A clear bullish sign from them.

Yes there have been sales, but normally in conjunction with, and mainly to fund, the exercise of options that they hold. All director's dealings are reported and available above.

Ignore the selective use, these posters have their own agenda and are trying to spook the unwary.

Er.... I don't get it > frozzy. Can you enlighten us on your thought process here? Very kind of them to sell for the greater good, but I can't see why a) they would want to and b) why they would have to?