RE: SYME projections to March 20225 Oct 2020 13:52
If we then look at the 142 companies (30 onboard, 112 left for March securitisation) and use these figures as averages. We can then project the expected earnings going forward to March 2021 when the securitisation is completed.
March 2021 Revenue - £293,333.33 x 142
= £41,653,332.86 (divide by 2 for net profit @50% Margin)
March 2021 Net Profit
= £20,826,666.43
So by March 2021, Just with the clients on board today. SYME will have a net profit of £20.8m
Of that £20.8m 73.8% will be recurring into 2022, 2023 & 2024 which is £15.35m annually or £46.05m over 3 years.
By March 2021, SYME will then be working on the next Securitisation. Details on dates yet to be announced. I would guess Oct 2021 if its following the same path. That will bring in another batch of on boarding fee’s and also more repetitive service fee’s.
To give an idea for March 2022. We can take the €4bn funding available for 2021 via the captive Bank. If we use the average of €10m per client we can say that should see 400 clients.
March 2022 Revenue - 400 x £293,333.33
= £117,333,332
There would also be have been the annual repeat payments of the Oct2020 of £6.5m and the March 2021 of £15.3m
Combined March 2022 Revenue
= £139,133,332 (divide by 2 for net profit @50% Margin)
March 2022 Net Profit
= £69,566,666
As we are using a 50% net margin, the revenue and net profit grow at the same level.
The growth from Oct 2020 to March 2021. £8.8m to £41.6m rounded = 472.72% growth
The growth from March 2021 to 2022. £41.6m to 117.3m rounded = 281.97% growth
Average growth over one year 6 months = 377.34%
As shown by my P/E P/R and PEG post the other day. For a PEG of 1, you can use the growth rate to determine the P/E as they are equal.
At a PEG of 1 a PE of 377 would be considered “about right value”
At a PEG of 0.5 a PE of 188 would be considered “very fair value”
At a PEG of 0.25 a PE of 144 would be considered “cheap”
We may also have the third stream in place by March 2021 with Insurance broker fees so there could be more income to add to this.
I would also add, the value of data being collected will be of significance. How this can be harvested or monetised is yet to be seen but the more years SYME gather, the more valuable it will become.
I hope this explains why SYME is the talk of the town, with very seemingly intelligent investors doubting it and pushing down the price while they load up for retirement.
In life there is always risk, In companies and markets there is always risk. We don’t plan to be hit by a bus, I’m not planning for SYME to fail. This is a rare opportunity that if pulled off, will reward all investors handsomely.
I would also say, as I’ve read a few doing it, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. A balanced portfolio won’t knock you out. Everything in one company could if it went wrong. No matter how good or stable something looks, there is always a possibility of someth
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