RE: SYME projections to March 20225 Oct 2020 14:41
Juicy part of the post corrected. Feel free to share on socials and credit Weathergeek.
Inventory €300m
- At this weeks exchange rate is £271,783,815 (Round to £272m for ease of calcs)
- Client on boarding processes £2.3m
- Annual Revenue generated via service fee £6.5m
- Total revenue from €300m inventory = £8.8m
- Percentage of sales *on annual recurring basis* 73.86% (£6.5m/£8.8m)
- Percentage of revenue over inventory sales 3.23% (£8.8m/£272m)
- 3.235% of £272m = £8.8m rounded
- @50% profit margin = £4.4m rounded.
Oct 2020 Revenue
= £8.8m
Oct 2020 Net Profit
= £4.4m
*on annual recurring basis* This is what all shareholders should look for for safety in future earnings. It’s either that or a brand thats so popular, it’s guaranteed sales every year.
So we can say so far, Come the end of this month SYME has made £8.8m in revenue from 30 clients, £4.4m in net profit.
So for each client SYME has an average revenue of £293,333.33 (£8.8m/30)
For each client SYME has made £146,666.66 @50% profit margin (£4.4m/30)
If we then look at the 142 companies (30 onboard, 112 left for March securitisation) and use these figures as averages. We can then project the expected earnings going forward to March 2021 when the securitisation is completed.
March 2021 Revenue - £293,333.33 x 142
= £41,653,332.86 (divide by 2 for net profit @50% Margin)
March 2021 Net Profit
= £20,826,666.43
So by March 2021, Just with the clients on board today. SYME will have a net profit of £20.8m
Of that £20.8m 73.8% will be recurring into 2022, 2023 & 2024 which is £15.35m annually or £46.05m over 3 years.
By March 2021, SYME will then be working on the next Securitisation. Details on dates yet to be announced. I would guess Oct 2021 if its following the same path. That will bring in another batch of on boarding fee’s and also more repetitive service fee’s.
To give an idea for March 2022. We can take the €4bn funding available for 2021 via the captive Bank. If we use the average of €10m per client we can say that should see 400 clients.
March 2022 Revenue - 400 x £293,333.33
= £117,333,332
There would also be have been the annual repeat payments of the Oct2020 of £6.5m and the March 2021 of £15.3m
Combined March 2022 Revenue
= £139,133,332 (divide by 2 for net profit @50% Margin)
March 2022 Net Profit
= £69,566,666
As we are using a 50% net margin, the revenue and net profit grow at the same level.
The growth from Oct 2020 to March 2021. £8.8m to £41.6m rounded = 472.72% growth
The growth from March 2021 to 2022. £41.6m to £139.1m rounded = 334.37% growth
Average growth over one year 6 months = 403.5%
As shown by my P/E P/R and PEG post the other day. For a PEG of 1, you can use the growth rate to determine the P/E as they are equal.
PEG of 1 a PE of 377 would be considered “about right value”
PEG of 0.5 a PE of 188 would be considered “very f