The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
For fecks sake , blueboyz email looks like the exact one I got and It’s not BS . So if it’s been a blanket email for the masses then am guessing it’s ok to paste it here. Make of it what ya want , all I can say is being a LTH with a considerable amount of shares, I feel like I’ve been misled big time. I can handle dusters , that’s part and parcel of O&G expo drilling. What I can’t handje is being blatantly misled and basically given the mushroom treatment. In all my years being loyalty invested in Sound it’s the first time I am doubting the integrity of the board. And that kills me to say it!
Here is the email I received. Make of it what ya want , if ya think it’s bollox I basically couldn’t care less coz it’s
genuine. I hope my maths is incorrect but sadly I don’t think it is, Anyway
Hi #####
That’s the sensitivity we are using –
1TCF of recoverable gas for Sound is worth approx. £1.50/share. We gave this sensitivity to shareholders at the end of 2017 and it has not changed.
That is an NPV calculation of the cash flow potential from that 1TCF of recoverable gas. The rule of thumb is calculated using a 10% discount rate, from an undiscounted free cash flow of £4 billion, or £3.90/share undiscounted, for 1 TCF of recoverable gas resources.
Te-10 as an example:
The upcoming Te-10 well has a range of 1.2-2.6-5.0 TCF GOIP (‘gas originally in place’). That is the P90-P50-P10 range of potential outcomes on a 100% basis – it’s a large range, which is normal pre-drill, and it’s a large prospect, which is why we want to drill it.
To apply the £1.50 sensitivity to that, convert the gas in place (GOIP) to recoverable gas by using a 50% recovery factor. Convert that to Sound’s equity share of 47%. This gets you to recoverable gas for Sound shareholders. Then apply the sensitivity to get to potential pps impact.
Hence for Te-10:
P50: 2.6TCF*50% recovery*47% Sound share *£1.50 sensitivity = 92pps
P90: 1.2TCF*50% recovery*47% Sound share *£1.50 sensitivity = 42pps
P10: 5.0TCF*50% recovery*47% Sound share *£1.50 sensitivity = 176pps
As you can see from these numbers, there is a lot to play for in the upcoming well, which is a prospect that is unrelated to Te-9, and that’s why we are committed to continue with the exploration drilling programme that we embarked on in October.
Please do let me know if you need any further information.
Thanks and regards -
JJ Traynor
CFO
I see our resident self professed expert is back to guide us all. Jizthefezz. Why don’t you stick to your tip of year MYSQ. This is a different ball game , if you care to open your eyes the whole market is down . So don’t come on here spouting your diatribe trying spook some genuine people and attempt to get a lower entry, like you usually do. Your full of it and have no morales. Go away and try and prop up your precious MYSQ, I can’t believe you actually think that joke of a share will rise from the ashes. PAH!!!!!!
2010PM , many thanks for your informative little summary. I didn’t realise there are appraise wells being drilled further later in the programme. Suppose that’s kinda reassuring to fall back in if things don’t pan out to well with the explo drills. Thanks again much appreciated
Hi, am not invested here yet but seriously considering it. I dont know an awful yet about the finer details but i know that PM are fully funded for a 6 well program, the first being unsuccessful. Which drill is considered to be the favoue=rite out of the six and why? Is it this anomaly that has been mentioned? Any info would be greatly appreciated. thanks
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWOsbp-vAZsrsDqFeppEUuA/videos?disable_polymer=1
this is the link to the Sound Retail Investor Group. Am assuming your not familiar with it and not being lazy!! from what i can see, there hasnt been any material from recent Tendrara trip uploaded yet. uploaded.
Not a pretty sight and feel for MOST holders here holding a loss. It’s not good and unlike other others I won’t come on here and gloat. I might however be tempted to get back in if it goes sub 0.5p.
No, if you read the post it’s says the SP’s of £0.50p and £1.90 are following a consolidation of 10/1. So currently they would relate to share price of 5p and 19p , which Pyro did state!!!! That would value the company at 10 times less than your calculations. So 700mill to 2.7 billion.
Fair point Hawthorn, and defo twitchy bum time coming up. But I Won’t be going anywhere, since the clear plan of an LE was put out there, I decided I would stick until the bitter end. So people buying and selling at any levels in between that point is pretty irrelevant to me, am just guessing that many ( me included ) would much prefer to be looking at a share price closer to what I feel we are truly worth right now before we find anymore gas and I just think that having the GSA in place might help that valuation. Just makes it a little easier on the eye. That’s all. But like you I am here for the hopefully bigger gains. So we sit and we wait. Good luck
Fair point Hawthorn, and defo twitchy bum time coming up. But I Won’t be going anywhere, since the clear plan of an LE was put out there, I decided I would stick until the bitter end. So people buying and selling at any levels in between that point is pretty irrelevant to me, am just guessing that many ( me included ) would much prefer to be looking at a share price closer to what I feel we are truly worth right now before we find anymore gas and I just think that having the GSA in place might help that valuation. Just makes it a little easier on the eye. That’s all. But like you I am here for the hopefully bigger gains. So we sit and we wait. Good luck
Fair point Hawthorn, and defo twitchy bum time coming up. But I Won’t be going anywhere, since the clear plan of an LE was put out there, I decided I would stick until the bitter end. So people buying and selling at any levels in between that point is pretty irrelevant to me, am just guessing that many ( me included ) would much prefer to be looking at a share price closer to what I feel we are truly worth right now before we find anymore gas and I just think that having the GSA in place might help that valuation. Just makes it a little easier on the eye. That’s all. But like you I am here for the hopefully bigger gains. So we sit and we wait. Good luck
Fair point Hawthorn, and defo twitchy bum time coming up. But I Won’t be going anywhere, since the clear plan of an LE was put out there, I decided I would stick until the bitter end. So people buying and selling at any levels in between that point is pretty irrelevant to me, am just guessing that many ( me included ) would much prefer to be looking at a share price closer to what I feel we are truly worth right now before we find anymore gas and I just think that having the GSA in place might help that valuation. Just makes it a little easier on the eye. That’s all. But like you I am here for the hopefully bigger gains. So we sit and we wait. Good luck
Hawthorn -Whilst what you say is pretty true regarding being here for bigger gains, it would still make that wait a little more comfortable in the meantime. Not everyone has a low average ( although personally mine is fairly low ) and therefore a higher share price before the LE would make the wait a little more bearable. But am defo here for bigger gains, it’s been a long time coming. GLA