Member Info for WaffenBurret

Yes, an RNS with Forward looking statements?
‘Expected’ being the operative word - as you well know.

Didn’t know you had seen the published plan Elvis. Do you have a link?

That’s why the current share price is sub 3p and not 30p.
Ie: Already in the price?

How about 99% giving somewhere between 15 -30p ?
Or some other made up variation, Who knows?

Assumptions.

*my response was to a nutter’s post removed. (For the record).

@wolfofWarks. Interesting and true regarding RoW. However, ultimately a sterling conversion for Cineworld sp. so not quite Apple. Sterling has been weak since end of H1 2022 against dollar AND Euro. Need to check Euro/dollar rates.

A side show maybe.

Thanks for response, our first useful convo, appreciated.

Still Plenty to come imo.

this is set to play out until between May21st and 31st. (Unless further extended).
Two camps with two comflicting narratives plus a few Egos now in the mix: Spurned Regal exCFO v Mooky + Co.
What other new management team members have the ad-hocCreditors lined up?

So:

Creditors (Regal revenge) ? V Cineworld survival plan (Actually not due until May 21st. )

RoW valuation due April 10. (Bids and possible auction)

Numbers: H2 2022 figs released by/ around April 30?

Projections : Unaudited figures for Q1 ?

Strategic Surprises yet to come ?

ACT II is long.

Good weekend all. (Definitely movie weather lol).

Strike that, Accounts in dollars, but EPS and PE affected. Still of interest.

I’m wondering what effect $/£ rates will affect figs, considering dollar strength H2 2022/23).
Companies generally employ currency-hedging windows. Studios buy sterling at opportune times for future productions in UK. Does Cineworld manage transactions to suit? Important to consider since majority pre Covid earnings came from N.America.

Fx strategy not revealed in figs.

Any knowledge on this welcome.

Call an ambulance.

This is my largest holding. The extension was announced in ‘days rather than weeks’. Lol.

The precision suggests to me that there is an agreed timing for the announcement with Zambian Gov blessings? After all It is a BIG moment for them to promote policy too, not just AA/ARCM.

It’s true - the one thing fearmongers can genuinely point out is the ‘possibility’ of 0.
But equally, to the contrary, there are agendas providing many other possible outcomes.

Current rise could be described as a pump, or a recovery from a previous dump.
That doesn’t get you anywhere. Sell now. Buy then. 50/50 every time.
You waste lots of time and money getting even. (minus dealer cost and spread).

And Now you are down.

Stay put, (in or out) and let the market come to you. Weigh up your initial risk and set a longer-term target.

Ignore the hustlers. Look at the bigger picture. For some this is (going on risk values) a relatively decent price to buy in and so no surprise at the current rise.

Jenga or fundamentals?

Could be there have been assurances from Zam Ministry re cadastre, and they too are waiting.
Delicate moment during negotiations. More rides on this deal than merely ARCM’s reputation.

Just going to have to wait while wobbly swing traders wage their boring day to day campaigns.
Everybody in this knows that deadlines and goals are not set in days or weeks, but years.
Announcement could be made at any time. Don’t get caught OUT.

The news today should not come as too much of a surprise - this outcome was discussed in a bankruptcy specialist summary report from March 15th:

“the Debtors have "nearly reached an agreement with the Ad Hoc Lender Group and their advisors to refinance the debtor-in-possession financing facility through a restructuring support agreement" and "remain focused on developing a go-forward business plan and coalescing consensus across their capital structure for a value-maximizing chapter 11 plan."”

15/03/23

https://www.bankruptcompanynews.com/cineworld-group-plc-nearly-there-on-replacement-dip-financing-and-restructuring-support-agreement-debtors-seek-second-set-of-exclusivity-extension/

Registration ‘free.’

RoW has a market tested valuation now with two known bidders and ‘several’ seeking (on a bad day) a probable 50% discount on the business.

RoW could be worth, on a good day nearer £1B, (ref needed) and could be sold, or sit on the books of the restructured entity as an asset, as collateral. (Part of the original family business).

Given the upswing in the box office cycle (10 yr cycles) interrupted by Covid, the ‘recovery’ the whole industry is undergoing inc. a rethink in terms of revenue structures, theatrical release date windows, potential vertical integration synergies, and real estate rent revisions, to ‘maximise’ roc renders a ‘golden egg’ view to investors and creditors alike.
The Creditors (ad hoc group) might regard this ultimately as one of their better investments over the coming years with restructured loans. Why would they wish to break that income stream for a poorer up front deal and wholesale cessation/disruption of business ? (Studios in the wings).

Early years haircut for’ re-weighted’ returns on investment. The retiming of loans and probable new covenants in the continued business are likely subjects of contention and being negotiated at present for a better outcome. The final ‘dots and crosses’.

So why sell ROW now when it could be worth more in future, earning revenue with a market-tested value. Why sell to alpha sharks when, after ‘consideration’, there are better future deals to be done.

After the swirl of negative news and opinions last week, offered free by Bloomberg (get that story out there), we now return to the original narrative sought by Cineworld of restructure and recovery.

Josh Sussberg, a bankruptcy lawyer for Cineworld, said in a court hearing, yesterday:

“ there are several potential buyers interested in the company’s operations in eastern Europe and Israel, he said. Binding bids for that portion of the firm are due on April 10.
“Assuming that all this works out, this is going to be an excellent outcome,”said Robert Feinstein, a lawyer for the committee of unsecured creditors. The plan will likely put Cineworld in a “position to be competitive.”

Confidence.

AIMHO GLA

My take on this: (warning : forward looking statement) possible outcome, In return for a haircut, creditors will agree to adjust the debt arrangement, lengthen dates, a set of performance targets/dates with options/Warrents ( managed dilution) attached, and with representation on BOD+. But Mooky still in charge.
Cineworld will be allowed to continue as a going concern - pursue a revised version of original precovid business plan to consolidate US market with potential revisit on Cineplex deal. recovery imminent imv.

Ultimately, ROW not for sale.

GLA.

“What a bummer if only he chose Cine world instead”

Doesn’t matter - if true, Good to know that Amazon is entering the arena.

Ah, interesting. Thanks Tegop.

Just a thought, if this were a courtroom prosecution there would be a news blackout on grounds of subjudice, to prevent manipulation of the jury.

There are no similar clauses gagging the weasle-worded press or so called ‘market analysts’ when it comes to manipulation. But there are plenty of pecuniary incentives for doing so.

The recent crop of reports and analyses are ‘leaks’ and ‘opinions’ with agendas.
We are in the midst of a period of hard negotiation. The only reliable information is being ironed out behind closed doors and will be officially reported on the agreed dates and, most likely, will be in the share price long before you have a chance to react.

Either you are IN or you are OUT. Your decision will have been made on the larger view of where cinema as a business is headed over the next three or so years and a resulting box office recovery if film slate continues, along with freedom for vertical integration after the closure of the Paramount Sunset Clause 2021 - DYOR.

Lenders operate on similar time-scales.

The real clues will be in official figures. We are still awaiting H2 2022 and, should agreed dates be further extended (always a possibility) more importantly, H1 2023 (expected September).

In the meantime, enjoy the he said, she said game of fear and optimism.

I’m in and I’m awaiting April 20th for the next more-reliable news snippet.

GLA.

“ “Currently, the Client is considering” lots of scenarios.
They have to consider all and any offers. Doesn’t mean they will accept.
All part of the negotiation.

Antlev, as with your post, that statement contains nothing of use other than, by constant repetition, employing fear to gain YOU a better entry price, or to maximise profit from your devious short.

‘Expected’. As stated in the forward looking statements section of the same RNS:

Quote:

“ Forward-looking statements often use words such as "anticipate", "target", "expect"…

“ because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future and the factors described in the context of such forward-looking statements in this document could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct and

you are therefore cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements”

“ Several potential buyers are circling Picturehouse.”

Tim Richards, chair of the British Film Institute, also CEO of Vue:

“We are preparing for a new golden age of cinema,” […]. “The studios are all very, very committed to theatrical. We can take advantage of working with the streamers as well as we have done for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and Matilda, both of which were Netflix productions and delivered really strong [theatrical] performances. We were disappointed that All Quiet On The Western Front didn’t get a material theatrical release but obviously it’s easy to say that in hindsight.”

Words v actions:

“Curzon’s (CEO Phillip) Knatchbull was more circumspect.

“What we have now is as seismic as the television revolution was in the 1950s. It isn’t just the pandemic that is causing the problem. There is a whole change in the ecosystem in the way films are released and distributed. That, in my opinion, has meant we have lost about 20% of the admissions, PROBABLY forever,” he said. (My caps).

Nonetheless, Curzon is continuing to invest in cinema sites. (Why?).

Can’t wait to see what happens when the big boys are flushed out and engage.

GLA

I agree with your quandary Bonkers. And I have not been a LTH. But I also think the lenders are looking forwards and asking whether to ‘stick or twist’. A lot rides on the predictive numbers. And, yes, there is still potential for an outside bidder.

I’m in for the duration now and I was always expecting these ‘worse case’ scenarios to play out.

Currently I am down 30/40% but it’s inevitable that this stock will be highly, highly volatile while everything, everywhere, all at once, ‘seems’ doom laden. Very few will find the bottom, but the upside could still be potentially huge for many newcomers and you may recover a large amount, maybe all, of your investment.