RE: Re.Cine6 Mar 2023 11:40
@Hexam, thanks for your sympathies.
I’m still on a go slow here but want to respond to a couple of points.
Official figs are comparable on a like-for-like basis. The monthly updates on Kroll are not. There are plenty of weasely T+Cs included. Some are standard accountancy terms but others are frankly very loose. We cannot see the separate revenue stream from the “High end retail” (food/drinks) the most profitable part of the business.
Given the context - courtroom negotiation - these numbers will serve agendas, more of that later.
However, even if you want to extrapolate from these ‘estimates’ (so described in the documentation) and, further, go through the messy business of collating, configuring, etc, we still only have til end of year 2022: Dec31. Two and half months behind what is happening on the ground! For that reason, I am somewhat sceptical of these numbers. Conclusions based on them are likely to be erroneous IMO.
I therefore base my bullish position on the question of motives and agendas: what each party wants as an outcome PLUS what the film industry wants (massive elephant). Hollywood is a slippery fish and numbers are frequently massaged when budget costs are released. One figure for the press, another for the taxman, as I understand it. Frequently, a movie is a free-standing business for the benefit of just that one movie. Everything is wound up at the end - the business, no longer exists. The modern equivalent of skipping over the border to Mexico.
With vertical integration back on the cards, a large theatre chain such as Cineworld carries increasing clout as a major source of revenue for the studios and therefore quite appealing.
I place this under the BIDDERS AGENDA when considering whether to make a decent offer (eventually).
Mooky, however, might not want to play second-fiddle to some young ‘upstart’ studio without dealing on the best terms he can obtain. I believe this is what he was aiming for back in 2019 when sizing up Cineplex which, together with Regal, would put him in pole position.
Back then he was seeking to maintain a high sp (clue, strong dividends payments to shareholders to sustain this) as part of his strategy. To that end you may well think that he will endeavour to illustrate numbers to give best value now for Cineworld.
But this is not a static frame. We are watching a trend. How best to demonstrate that. Gain time, delay execution and let the curve of improvement do the talking. He is therefore fighting on two fronts to 1: make liquidation as unappetising as possible to the lenders, thereby hoping for debt-term renegotiation (not necessarily D4E but through extension, though possibly a combination), 2: paradoxically, making the future look bright through improving numbers. The timing of their release favouring this agenda), though we probably won’t know this until May at earliest. That is one part of MOOK’S AGENDA. That he remains in charge & sees through his plan.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
