The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
When energy/crude,commodities takes a Hit the S&P 500 feels the pressure Analyst comment on todays new home sales: The fundamentals are in place for the housing recovery to continue and one needs to look beyond the winter months. Mondays existing home sales: Low inventories as owners have decided to stay out of market and to upgrade-diy is Hot in US-and sell later at a better price Lack of affordable properties First time buyers have not got the punch in their payroll at the present The young are getting married later-late twenties/early thirties-and either rent if they can afford it or generally stay living with mom/dad Those leaving university have sizeable debts to service Affordable inventory going forward will be challenging 2016/17 Gasoline dollars have gone to paying off debt,saving ,big ticket items and DIY Fed speak/Bullard - recession is not on horizon General market sentiment is that Fed may hike in June!-does not look like April Time for a pint/or two
Analyst comment: Markets are resilient Brussels may have a temporary effect on consumer confidence,however is not helpful to business confidence near term Emerald oil files for bankruptcy ........................................................ Gold down 1% + this am - roll on risk USA data: new home sales mba mortgage applications eia petroleum data Business comment: Economies need structural changes that technology/digital is demanding as well as fiscal and investment follows Global economy is consumer driven and global economy is in a stagnant low growth as opposed to going into a recession Have a wild day
Analyst comment: Manufacturing PMI came in surprisingly strong Time for a pint/or two
Airport bombing hitting airline / leisure stocks
US federal construction data - 17th March: Construction jobs increase in 243 out of 358 metro areas from January '15 to Jan '16 as firms expand to keep pace with strong demand. Main areas of declining jobs are in energy producing areas BUT Top construction markets are very diverse economically and geographically and even Houston produced impressive construction job numbers despite oil drilling slump because of steady demand for office,medical,residential and infrastructure projects. Spending data correllates with job data Main headwind is availability of construction skills compounded by a limp US government education/training structure to attract the young to the construction industry. ------------------------------------------------ USA data: pmi manufacturing redbook house price index Richmond fed manufacturing index EU data: france pmi german pmi eu pmi german business ifo climate german zew sentiment UK data: cpi OIl analyst comment: Supply still an issue and oil could fall again BUT has bottomed at mid thirties OPEC get together in April: whatever they come up with ,implementation/monitoring is a major problem URI should go over 65$$$$$$$$$ and upwards toward 70$+++++++++++++++++ The best data/real for market to go on was AHT's recent Qly figures S&P 500 is in a bull trend again- roll on mick-b thanks for recent data Have a wild day
One analyst commented on todays data for February and said at this time of year one might be better off reading the tea leaves in a cuppa December/January sales were $olid but general sentiment is that economy is OK,just walking along. Other analysts have commented on calmer markets and money coming back into equities. PMI/and durable goods will be this week and should contribute to a better picure
A-Plant/Leado Acrow has invested circa £250000 in new formwork equipment specially manufactured for company,and the majoritry of which has gone out to immediate hire to assist construction of the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route/Balmedie to Tipperty Project- a major transportation infrastructure project. A-Plant has acquired the portable accommodation fleet of NG Bailey-UK's leading independent engineering,IT and facilities services business with over 90 years experience. This acquisition makes A-Plant the largest UK portable accommodation specialist with circa 16000 units for diverse application/use. In tandem A-Plant has become the sole supplier of this product range to NG Bailey. USA data: Chicago fed national activity index existing home sales fed speak EU data: eu consumer confidence sentiment China comment: PBOC encourages corporations to raise £££££££££$$$$$$$$$$$$££££££££££££ through markets in China as opposed through banks Have a wild day
Editorial comment/change of character: For the first time in 5 years inflationary pressures are beginning to emerge changing the investment landscape. Former leading stocks/growth-over value- have relinquished their leading prominent role in the markets and a rotation into out of favour stocks-inflationary- is taking place hidden in plain sight. The three most crowded trades,long US dollar,short emerging markets and short commodities are being unwound. Improbably the S&P 500 index remains only 3% from its prior all time high and which seemed impossible 6 weeks ago,YET,the character of stock market has unmistakeably changed. --------------------------------------------------------------- With commodities rallying in the pa$t week URI saw a rush of short covering and mutual funds recognising the real value available bought in. Roll on Monday.
Quadruple witching this am/pm occurs in tranches at open and then tranches at close-expirarion of futures/options and traders adjusting their portfolio/volatility kind of Have a good weekend Time for a pint/or two
One analyst commented at clo$e Bell 17th/that further weak dollar and the boost to mining/commodities/could see a $$$$$$$$$$$$$breakout for our $lumbering friend CAT and that will bring the machinery stocks/Rental with it/so long as they are all emi$$ion friendly like our bouncey friend AHT££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££ Is there a currency war on the way?! Have a wild day Have a wild day
Dollar continues to weaken in Asia and will give a boost to US markets as per news this am Economist comment: Corps sitting on cash its a case of caution/uncertainty Small business investment in US declining/however approval of full loans shows healthy increase/45% of companies being approved US data yesterday/leading indicators etc all ++++$$$++++ ------------------------------------------ US data: consumer sentiment business inflation expec rig count AHT Bouncing along in right direction,and bounces guaranteed our good friend AHT All of a sudden everything seems OK,its just been a bad dream/BUT is there a nightmare galloping towards us? Have a wild day Have a wild
Philadelphia Business survey comes in ahead of economists expectations on manufacturing/and a ++++$$$+++
Commodities boosting CAT and URI $teaming along
The way the market has brought sp up again is a good sign from market US FedEx up 6% and refects a broad reach of US economy with a diversified delivery of products/anything BOE OK Have a wild day
Catergpillar say there Qly earnings will miss forecasts for 1Q but maintain full year guidance and this brings down the machinery stocks like Rental Caterpillar's exposure to China and emerging markets the main reason But company also presently restructuring Never a dull moment Have a wild day
Market comment: Fed comes to market rescue again BFFE (best friend for ever) in dovish mood USA data: leading indicators jolts jobless claims Philadelphia business survey current account consumer data eia natural gas Last year CEO/URI said that oil price needs to bottom/stabilise and lets say its in somewhat better shape and maybe oil / opec get together in april deivers something! But how much will Iranians end up pumping! US economic data still OK and manufacturing continue to show signs of recovery AHT sp looking steady and should head for £8 hgh+,thanks Fed Have a wild day
Single family housing starts for February on a 5 month high/and highest in 9 years CPI declines ...on data just released Have a wild day
US Govt Labour data / 14th March: Construction jobs increase in 44 states from Jan'15 to Jan'16 39 states add jobs from Decr'15 to Jan'16 Energy states jobs decline Widespread strong construction demand in US Tight labour supply under pressure and contractors urge government to focus on construction labour training/ demand ---------------------------------------------------------------- AHT sp recovery looking fie$ty at the moment and demonstrating its resilience to $wing back from under £8 and that also demonstrates a good signal from market Where market finally settles it after all the volatility,wait and see I suppose Have a wild day USA data: cpi industrial production housing starts mba mortgage applications eia petroleum FOMC UK data: BOE
Editorial comment: Britian's future in EU is delaying investment decisions which is dampening the market. ------------------------------------------ and BREXIT fears is also affecting investment right across the economy. Michael Heseltine/self made competent businessman once said that the only way to deal with EU,is to make very sure your sitting at the same table and that is the only way in looking after UK's interests Have a wild day
FOMC begins today - will be accommodative BOJ freezes stimulus -asia in red and maybe a Draghi/ECB move could be next!! USA data: ppi-fd empire state mfg survey retail sales redbook business inventories housing market index EU data: employment 4Q Good to see AHT breeze over £8 ,but how it goes after two curious! downgrades and other sentiment,well its a case of wait and see till it settles down again and how it recovers after a dip which is my main interest But going into Spring/Summer seasons is a big $$$$$$$$$$$$$££££££££££$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in a sector which has robust demand Have a wild day