REMINDER: Our focusIR Investor Webinar takes place TONIGHT with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Trucking companies in USA transport about 80% of all freght revenue YOY to 2015 it's about 1.2% High inventories are the problem High inventories will affect trucking well after 1Qtr December however was OK USA data: Fed/Yellen speak Consumer confidence eia nat gas data jobless claims Have a wild day Business inventory to sales record is at its highest in 10 years
Hi Slipperyslope, The market has not decided yet what direction it is taking as many factors are at play It looks tempting at present sp BUT as Fed mentioned that equity/market turmoil could manifest itself in the real economy , causing uncertainty there financial conditions becoming more difficult for riskier companies outside the energy sector,like AHT/URI etc having to pay a higher premium for their loans due to the nature of their business rental rates fairly static used equipment auction prices falling off spend in the non residential construction has been flat since last july'15 skilled labour shortages oil still going south towards $25 maybe another hike from Fed Investor sentiment is that central banks globally cannot fix the mess on their own,the governments need to act also QE in USA has ceased markets illiquidity making markets very volatile When AHT went under £8 and eventually stayed there after closing bell,it may signal that market is taking it lower,so heading towards £7.50+ as there is no real catalyst for sp until Qly data in march This is a volatile stock even in the best of times and will the present turmoil be correction or bear It will be weeks before market settles as on analyst commented The trend is south for AHT at the moment. The market will gauge it from Qtr to Qtr It's a stockpickers market and AHT will not be on their shopping list-too risky BOL Have a wild Thursday
Fed/Yellen ...Financial conditions have become less supportive of growth... Fed generally cautuious on economy in the moderate term
Fed/Yellen po$itive on economy and have not put hike in march off table,they will be data dependent on that hike which is a + French Ind [production uninspiring All eyes on how Wall St. goes Have a wild day WTI Oil goes below $28
S&P 500 finds support today will bode well as a good sign Market realises that some banks might be feeling the heat-NOT ALL Present AHT sp is a decent price going long and for the moment the floor looks like between £8 low and £8.25 Construction materials registered good data yesterday and investors got in Fed will be accommodative and of course theres BREXIT to get it all going again and Greece will is getting mention again UK industrial production stalled in 4Q Have a wild day
All ears on Fed/Yellen Market comment: ........... Bank Co-Co's were developed to protect joe public,HOWEVER when they were launched NEGATIVE interest were not envisaged zero interest rates........ Good old fashioned financial repression Deutsche Bank sp down 40% in Jan/Feb USA data: Yellen/Fed speak mba mortgage applications eia petroleum data EU data: industrial production Yesterday's US jolts(ie workers leaving a job to get another job elsewhere} came in well and a good indicator of economy General market Sentiment: Uncertainty and not going away in a hurry and protect your capital EU Banks have ample liquidity Have a wild day
Hi Discodave, General trend of indeces fuelled on uncertainty of oil/banks/debt/recession(not USA/EU) QE no more! negative interest rates China/EM Currencies Uncertainty and illiquid markets Debt Mid 2014 SP was around £8 and volatility will be here for all of 2016 and more bad days to come Non residential is OK but headwinds of labour and economy slowing even more becaiuse Fed may hike too much This stock is volatile and caution is advised,they are now saying that oil could hit $20 Look at Redrow this morning-great results and at this inst its down close on 8% URI down nearly 4% When market is finished repricing we will end up around £9.70+ Its a perfect storm of negative ingredients at the moment Have a wild day
SP may bottom out at about £7.50/ £ 7.70 if nothing positive materialises for equity sentiment and oil goes under $30 in the near term, and/ but oil as one commentator put it WILL remain volatile to the downside and no bottom is there yet
should read: ...sales/aution prices....
Used equipment sales/auctions have decreased for 8 consecutive months according to recent data. However core rental equipment auction prices have stabilised to about 4Q 2014 levels Flight to safety: Yen:Gold;Bonds
should read: ..... UK constr company Redrow.....
Analyst comment: ...instead of looking for a market low,choose stocks in telecoms,utilities and overweight defensive versus cyclicals... ......recent weak dollar is a result of weaker than expected US Qly data..... ....40% of S&P 500 is already in bear territory,but in 2008 it was twice this... USA data: nfib small business optimism index redbook jolts wholesale trade Oil analyst comment: ....fall off in US diesel demand refiects softening in industrial/manufacturing and transport as in rail etc... German industrial production down this am for a 2nd month despite strong demand in german economy The markets were fragile and illiquid enough and this sell off does not help as one analyst commented. UK constr company reports today AHT sp may stabilise! but as long as markets trend south it probably will follow URI BUT when you get recession worries AHT will not be a stock of choice. All eyes on Fed/Yellen when she goes to Capitol Hill on Wednesday/Thursday and lets hope she says what the investors want to hear Have a wild day
Some EU banks including Deutsche Bank may have a problem £7 high come on down Have a wild day
Market will stabilise on favourable Fed/Yellen remarks mid week Oil/China-reserves/EM's',Fed hike!/global recession and geopolitical Low£8 come on down Have a wild day
Analyst comment: Investors fretting on global growth concerns this am and an ugly day on Wall Street awaits ------------------------------ One tech guru reckons S&P500 could bottom out at 15500!!!!!!!! And value on the way Have a wild day
City comment: Commodity rout will go beyond 2016 which will be a rough year Market volatility is also re-pricing and looking for fair value Oil to be low for about 10!years Have a wild monday
...since 2015...should read: 'since July 2015'
Editorial comment: Construction firms added 18000 jobs in Jan,construction employment highest since 2008 and construction employment at 17 year low. The January figures mark a significant decline in the rate of growth compared to the end of last year. It could reflect either a slowdown in non-residential construction activity or a skilled labour shortage. Non-residential construction jobs declined 2300 in January and for 2015 jobs created are 115000 which is a 2.9% increase YOY. It will take a few months to evaluate whether it's a labour problem or if the broader economic uncertainty is leading to a decline in demand for many types of construction services. Non-residential construction spending by both private and public sectors has been flat or declining since 2015. With the Transportation/infrastructure Bill passed,this will kick in later in the year for heavy and civil engineering construction projects-highways,bridges,water/sewage etc. 71% of contractors surveyed remain optimistic 2016. Rental rates would have to increase about 15% before contractors would consider supplying their own plant. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Uncertain times make rental companies a safer option and uncertainty is not going away in a hurry. As CEO of URI commented last August is that the oil price needs to stabilise. JP Morgan recently updated its price for oil to be around $30 for 4Q 2016. Recent broker forecasts give sp between £10 and £12 AHT sp should move between £8.50 + and £9.50+ for the coming months till a clearer picture develops amidst all this gloom. Capital flight from China and emerging markets will end up in EU/UK and USA Fed will be cautious and data dependent ---------------------------------- AHT being half the size of URI and broad based and diversified will bring in another good set of results in Qly data/March But for the moment the rangebound sp is giving a tidy $pread Market is also beginning to move the price up which is a good sign,but the market however is too bouncey to help it along Time for a few pints Have a wild Monday
Market comment: Equity market and oil markets with outflows of ££££££££££££££££$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE have significantly less liquidity and with this all important shock absorber not in good shape then the markets will whiplash all over the place/VOLATILITY anybody to invest at the moment would have to be insane IMF comment: Outflows of capital from emerging/developing markets a serious cause for concern Whole world slowing down USA data: FOMC job data etc international trade rig count consumer credit Germant factory orders disappoint US job number forecast around 190000 If job number is too weak or too strong it could lead to a sell off in equities As one oil analyst said about oil is that it's a ca$h flow problem pure and simple,they need to service their operations/debts AHT sp steady and di$hing up a tidy spread of 20+ p Have a wild day AHT sp dishing up a steady spread around
Market comment: Non-opec oil production including in the US is falling off and rebalancing around 4Q will give a price of $50 around China imports of oil was up in 2015 and also hefty oil imports continue in 2016 USA data: mba mortg's adp employment data job creation data pmi/ism mnfg data eia petroleum data EU data pmi coming in ok UK data pmi General sentiment: Markets nervous and ri$$$k Off AHT sp may settle at around £8.50 and serious value Have a wild day