The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Editorial comment: Rental outlook remains positive over a '5' year period;2016 6.7%;2017 6.7%;2018 6.2%;2019 5.8% Rental companies can prepare/plan for steady growth and expand their markets,and build inventory to meet demand. Since the great recession companies now see the cost savings in rental and the secular shift to renting has now a sound base. USA data: mba mortgage applications housing starts eia petroleum figs Atlanta fed inflation expectations fomc minutes fed Dudley speak Have a wild day
US economy is healthy with low unemployment,2 1/2% wage inflation and good consumer confidence and hike in December looks on Non-residential construction growing at a moderate pace through to 2018 ++ and present Rental Sentiment is robust USA data: cpi industrial production housing data retail sales online Have a wild day
Recent news: Significant expansion in Scotland both for PSS Hire and FLG Services due to market demand and also to increase A-Plant's UK presence
CAT goes $th 4%+ and URI follows,also companies being shorted CAT exposed to emerging markets,a crazy correlation but that is how the market views it-''machinery stocks''! Oil speak ''US shale producers proving to be a very hard nut to crack'' as one analyst commented...'' if Libya stabilises and their production recovers then it will be interesting in 2016'' AHT sp very buyable from low £9 and returns again to £10+ overtime and a tidy spread and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Sit on the fence and wait UK GDP this am Have a wild day
Growing demand in non-residential construction creates 30000+ jobs in October as skill shortages keeps number subdued Washinton gives thumbs down to Keystone pipeline from Canada to US Gulf after 7 yrs of wrangling-''not in national interest''- as Obama comments on Friday,and URI steady and ri$ing on same day I find it curious on URI's CEO remarks in May on soft earnings and especially when URI are going on a 'buyback' which was a contribution to the' big drop' on sp URI hit about 60$ and a tidy earner for the deep pockets URI will take AHT with it and this job number is a boost going into December September job number was a 'fluke'as one analyst commented Market reaction on Friday was encouraging and VIX declines and 10 yr Treasury yield goes up Have a wild Monday
US small business create 37000 jobs in September US companies account for 37% of the global equity markets and it's population is 4% of the planet BOE/carney predicts US GDP to go 2+high % for the next couple of years Fed's / Yellen remarks of 'solid economy' is good for investors/market UK interest hike mid 2016 maybe! General sentiment is developed economies will continue to grow but mediocre USA data: non-farm payroll jobs consumer credit German industrial production declines this am UK data: industrial production manufacturing production URI moving nicely and 80$$$$$$$ ++ is on AHT looking comfortable Yesterdays Highway and Transit Bill-thank you $$$an£a Also speak from lawmakers of all persuasions is that US infrastructure needs domestic priority All $weet news for Market Job creation in non-residential being hindered by skill shortages right across the site US jobs today predicted about 185000 As one economist put it we are not in a crisis anymore,Fed will in December unless job figure today is poor and some are saying it could be less than stellar With the data that Fed can access I suppose they may go in December and as economist put it there can never be a perfect time A hike will be good for markets as one analyst commented and good for banks releasing money for investment Fed speak also today Have a wild day
US Transportation/Infrastructure: Washington/House- Senate approve ''Highway&Transit Bill'' Will release about 350 billion $$$$$$$$ to Federal states for infrastructure projects and covers about 3 years A very fine boost for the Rental Sector Time for a pin£ Have a good night
US auto sales highest since 2005 Manufacturing between expansion and contraction-weak global demand and high level of domestic inventories USA data: adp jobs mortgage applications job creation index international trade crude oil inventories Sentiment from some quarters is that low crude oil price is in the rearview mirror City comment: ''too much regulation preventing investment in growth'' EU data: pmi various UK data: pmi services brc shop price index City comment: ''we're kind of stuck,QE has encouraged speculative activity to the detriment of investment in growth/real economy'' With oil price looking better AHT/URI moving again,also the market applied to hefty a correction in August/Septr and URI's Qly data also coming after a decent Qtr from AHT sp £11+i$h going into December Have'nt seen any acquisitions from AHT recently and therefore the company is satisfied with it's organic plans and earnings and therefore no need to buy growth,one $lant that the market would be comfortable with. Have a wild week
Contractor comment: ''The sad fact is that our educational system is doing a great job of preparing students for jobs that don't exist and a lousy job of getting them prepared for high paying jobs that do exist. Until we have an educational and training system that is aligned to economic reality construction projects are likely to cost more and take longer to complete'' USA data: pmi mfg ism mfg construction spend EU data: pmi mfg Germany data: pmi mfg retail sales UK data: pmi mfg Recent pmi from china not surprisingly negative Heavy earnings data week for US AHT/URI sp getting steady again and November the uptrend continues hopefully! Have a wild and profitable week Have a wild and profitable week
Consumer data has come in fine attributed to low ga$/and job$ and consumer spend is over 70% of US economy Public/Federal spend is tepid and ''uncle sam'' borrows around 1 million$ every minute for every day/365+ Market comment: ''after a stellar October the market is feeling more comfortable with china situation but global demand falling off'' merry xma$ merry xma$
Market comment: ''from now to December it's all Fed.will they go! and markets will be fickle'' October and November job numbers + wages need to come in good and Fed will be data dependent BOJ ready to ease in Jan'16 aas of this am USA data: employment cost index personal income and outlays Chicago pmi Main contractor headwind in a favourable non-residential sector are skill shortages all across the sites From now to December as one analyst commented: ''Market will go sideways and up/down'' Good day to all
As one fund manager described market: ''If market could talk it would probably say-''all is fine for awhile but not convinced'' China's recent moves to get more credit to economy well received. However the debt ratio to GDP will rise as in Japan in the 1980's/90's and will be a cause for concern as one analyst commented USA data: home sales dallas fed mnfg survey Germany data: ifo business/economy data UK data: bba mortgage applications Some light may emerge on the long awaited US Transportation Bill this week to get funding agreed by Congress to start working long term on the ailing US infrastructure,but the gridlock may persist ''come on fellas get those machines fired up we've got highways to build'' Good week investing to all
Ashtead/A-Plant bolsters an already modern plant fleet with 400 new machines PMI out of Germany and France are OK CAT have a cash balance of of 6 billion $ and can still pay a dividend after 4 years of a declining mining sector and energy downturn ECB stimulous in December Maersk Shipping/containers reflect the slowdown of global economy Good day all
Caterpillar Qtly data today So long as they are not too bad and so long as demand in developed economis and USA is OK
The URI data will be a po$$itve for the $anta Rally and hoping it will be a good one,but a bearish sentiment prevails USA data: fhfa house price index jobless claims Chicago fed national activity index Analyst comment: ''invest in safe cyclicals'' Good day all
URI up 4%+ in after hours trading
URI tops 3Q profit forecasts EBITDA +50% highest for any quarter in company history It's all go to end of 2015 and 2016 also forecasted to be good and a happy CEO
Earnings will be OK and slightly better than expectations But with such a massive cutback in energy capex it still gives a solid indication to the market It's a roller coaster/sit on the fence kind of stock and money can be made buying at the right time and then wait for the next dip But $ound well run companies With the US economy still in 2nd gear,rental companies are very attractive to companies still cautious on economy USA data: mba mortgage applications eia petroleum figs fed speak US hike March!2016! Good day all
Investment manager comment: ''US economy will grow between 2.5/3% for the next two years +'' US data: housing starts red book (predecessor of the beige book) compiled by Fed staff in all states and gives a sound pul$e on economy fed speak EU data: balance of payments german ppi Quiet sp approaching URI earning release on Thursday which is not encouraging Rangebound for months £9 to£10 But $till a tidy earner working the spread Good day all
FLG is a division Ashtead owned A-Plant and has recently made a major investment in it's sales,hire and service of it's lifting equipment portfolio. USA data: housing market data Chinese 3Q GDP released on Monday and maybe another 7.00000000000000000000000000000000!!! It could be a wild week Good week to all