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Vehicle sales continue to the upside Market comment: The oil market is huge with trading etc but it's a case of the tail(oil) wagging the bea$t (equities) BP's poor Qly data helping oil south URI down 7%+ at the minute EU unemployment falling again and a + Market comment: Investor flight to $$afety Some decent opportunite$S will present for the long view Have a wild day
Oil to remain volatile over 6/9months in a trendless oil market Oil could go under $30 Invvestor sentiment: risk aversion from equities to safety oil contagion into credit markets USA data: energy data motor vehicle sales redbook City comment: falling oil never caused a recession ------------------------------ AHT sp is rangebound between £8 high and £9 low and market supports here until the next panic attack or more positive data for rental market emerges and gives better direction BP comment: Profits down 91% Have a wild dayu
Oil expected to be around $50 at 4Q 2016 and 60$+ at 4Q 2017
Analyst comment: Friday's rebound was due to BOJ and also pension fund managers re-balancing their portfolios at end of month By weeks end approx. 40% of US companies will have reported earnings Friday non - farm payroll data etc for December will be released and if its good then the Fed hike is back in play again and stocks suffer the nerves again US data: personal income and outlays US consumer spend pmi manufacturing ism manufacturing construction spending Fed speak A-Plant's Acrow Leada has continued its hire fleet expansion by placing a 0.5 million £ order with german based MEVA,one of the biggest global suppliers of concrete formwork/falsework equipment/components. Cautious week awaits in the run up to the non-farm payrolls Have a wild week
Latest comment-analyst: Even if Russians/Opec came up with something it would only mean a reduction 2000000 barrels a day and it would have to be monitored/ not enough reduction - only way for oil to recover is equilibrium.At the moment its a supply issue pure and volatile Once balance is achieved oil they reckon will be $80 a barrel within 2 years so long as global demand is there Have a wild day
will opec and Russians come up with a cutback!! speculation Iranians want their market share back and that will not help their plans!! as per city comment SP AHT algorithim waiting for solid facts and in a south trending market wil go nowhere except follow the drift south and Market will peg rental onto oil fall off in URI net income/eps softness in rental rates forecasted by URI for 2016 recession narrative fed hike maybe high yield credit market contagion geopolitical china demand falling off used plant machinery prices softening interesting to see how URI opens US GDP might surprise !!! to upside! AHT sp goes under £8.80 then drift south continues in bearish volatile,low liquid market Rental stocks will not be top of shopping list yet,even at present prices Cautious purchase Have a wild day These rental carry a significant debt risk
£9.80 figure should read £8.80
Editorial comment: Strong demand for construction in most states and contractors have a positive outlook for 2016.But the question that concerns them,will the broader market turmoil drag down demand for construction URI net income for Qtr was down 13% and came in at 169 million $ and significant reduction in upstream oil/gas capex contributing,but the diversified nature of its business across the rental sector gives a good pul$e on US economy and that is grinding its way along and 2.6% GDP is forecast for 2016. Creditors are satisfied that URI still generates decent ca$h flow in volatile and uncertain times Oil will stabilise and upstream oil/gas capex will take off again US data: gdp employment cost index Chicago pmi consumer sentiment baker hughes rig count fed speak farm prices AHT found support at £9.80+ and steadied ,last August 2015 the sp steadied more or less at same level AHT at this price ,$uperb value Market sentiment generally: US is not in recession High yield credit markets (oil-gas), and the other sectors are alright and contagion and all other noise is feeding the narrative of US recession and does not hold up to scrutiny But one thing for sure the deep pockets are making money out of this narrative Have a wild day
URI going $$OU£h in a hurry and hopefully a good old fashioned overshoot to about 40$! A great stock for the deep pockets
URI still came in with a resilient set of data As CEO stated it's the upstream oil/gas and its knock on effects also their operation in Canada contributing US brokers sentiment is that the pressure on stock will be near term. Stock price is also a shorters goldmine The main question for US investors is the economy going into recession and with oil/gas and strong dollar and divergence at either end of the of the Pond and China and geopolitical adding to the mix there hovers a lot of uncertainty and that uncertainty with low liquidity,investors are cautious. AND QE in US has ended and that also is part of the volatility When earning season Q1 completes the market will have a better idea. USA data: durable goods pending home sales jobless claims eia petroleum data Kansas fed manfg data consumer data AHT great value at this price Hopefully it will sink to £8.50ish or lower and sta$h it away for calmer tmes Oil/gas need to stabilise/balance and market will be less nervous. Saudi's production costs are less than 10$ a barrel and they are not going to lose their market share or do the Iranians any favours Have a wild day City sentiment is that the strong dollar is the same as 100 points rate hike and Fed will be data driven and accommodative It will be bumpy all the way to end of Q2 earnings QE has
US housing recent data are strong and a resilient and dynamic indicator,the all important Household Formation data is strong China transition to Service/Consumer based economy could take minimum 5! to 10 years as per some City comment and a contributor of interest/noise to global markets for the coming years USA data: FOMC meeting begins Redbook PMI Services Index flash Consumer Confidence Manufacturing data Richmond Fed Another opportunity to see where Market supports AHT sp with all the NOI$£,low £9or high£8 and a decent price How much more will falling oil/commodities impact on the big rental companies and markets will overshoot again DOW transport index.the rail companies are getting hammered Oil Analyst comment: It will be at least 6!! months before oil bottoms There is also a geopolitical play in that the Saudis/Aramco are trying their pumping be$t to asqueeze Iran out of international Credit markets A sea of bli$$full RED and OPPORTUNITY FOMC on Wednesday may calm the nerve$ URI data on 28th will be good,however twice the size of AHT,but should give the market a good pul$e on rental RI$K off,no risk wait on decent stocks and top up,its a $anta Rally inverted Have a wild day
Caterpillar Qly data disappoints and this machinery stock brings down the other machinery! stock(rental) URI somebody's making $$$$$$$$$$$$
Big week in US Qly earnings release on the way Fed speak will be pivotal for Markets and if it comes across negative it will be a sea of RED and ALSO opportunity. As on old City hand commented: The Fed are still living in an analogue mindset and should acknowledge that we now live in a digitised global economy where significant $um$/tranactions can be transmitted to any part of the globe from a smart phone ---------------------------------------------------------- The bulk of US manufacturing has gone offshore and what remains is about 8% of US GDP,which has been hard hit by a strong dollar and the significant decline in energy capex. Demographic data: Averrage OECD age is 40 yrs plus and this age group saves more and in the emerging markets the average age is 26 yrs and these like to spend . The American consumer is saving more and data has confirmed this whilst credit from banks is still tight. A big contributor to sluggish US wage growth is the globalised nature of the economy we live in and UK,EU and US companies will continue to invest in countries where they can make a significant contribution to the bottom line through reduced payroll costs and corporation taxes. AHT may continue to steady up to the URI/Caterpillar Qly data/conference call on 28th January. URI will come in good but the Market will be cautious on rental for months to come. The AHT sp will be rangebound between £9 low and £10.50ish maybe and a tidy little earner After the Qly 2 US data the health of US economy will be more clear. But one thing for sure is VOLATILITY is not going away for a long time. China has a social debt of about 400% of GDP and an external debt of 50% of GDP and that is a major concern Japan has wrestled with deflation for over 20 years and US/EU will similarly struggle with it Oil price decline primarily down to oversupply,but what will concern FED is that when storage declines sometime! the price will jump up very quickly and inflation! Have a wild week
Construction adds 45000 jobs in December and sector unemployment down to 7.5% from 8.3% in Decr 2014 in growing private and public sector construction demand. Residential construction jobs increased 5.7% YOY Non-Residential construction jobs increased 3.2% YOY Main contractor concerns are labour shortages;regulatory burdens;health care costs. Congtractor organisations call on US government for a more robust inclusive workforce development plan encompasing career and technical education programs through investment in community colleges to meet the need for construction skills demand . US infrastructure is creaking at the seams and needs massive investment and it will come if US economy falters and the powers that be/and big money decide!!! to take a different and more obvious approach to 21st century USA. Have a wild week
should read: ''.......horizon for 2016........''
A-Plant acquires GB Access a specialist provider of hoist hire equipment for both large construction companies on construction and industrial sites and smaller operators. A-Plant now owns a large and competitive fleet of hoist plant and GB Access will operate as an independent company within A-Plants specialist division and will complement A-Plant's FLG Services and will further consolidate A-Plant's lifting and safety products business. A-Plant's acquisition affords them new capabilities and opens up new specialist opportunites in this sector as reflected in A-Plant's mananagement appraisal. GB Access is a well respected and established hirer of of hoist plant for over 25 years. This acquisition gives A-Plant a significant presence in hoist rental and a solid foundation for A-Plant to grow the business and become the UK's premier hoist rental company. And good old fashioned cash flow. Interest rate hike in UK does not seem to be on the horizon for 2017 which is a plus ++++ and across the pond the Fed will be accommodative also. USA data: pmi manfg index flash Chicago fed national activity index existing home sales leading indicators baker hughes rig count UK Retail sales disappoint in 4Q AHT sp seems to be steady/support around £9.30ish for 2016! and rangebound between this and high £9 or low £10 for the months to come in this volatile/spikey market which trends South till a clearer horizon/risk becomes established. Stay behind the AHT sp curve and money can be made as AHT always gives a nice spread URI and Catepillar 4Q earnings release and conference call on the 28th January. URI will come in with good earnings,but any negativity! from company and these stocks will suffer. URI/Caterpillar are also heavily shorted throughout. Have a wild day
City comment: ''Oil,China,Fed and the direction of Global economy creating such uncertainty that Markets will suffer'' ''Market volatility and regular volatility will squeeze liquidity from markets and cause recession'' ''Stock market has finally caught up with oil and correlation mirrors that'' UK unemployment at 10 year low as labour tightens AHT SP heading for £8 territory and when it falls under £9 then £8.50ish is on Oil needs to bottom out/stabilise and by then some very tasty prices will have been scooped up on decent stocks Play it SOUTH,irrespective of decent earning reports the market at the minute is GOING SOUTH USA data: consumer price index core cpi housing starts Old hand comment: China transition will be painfull,but Crucial to a more balanced economy Have a wild day PATIENCE and pounce
China GDP 6.9% They are WRONG The figure is 6.911111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111% Editorial comment: World drowning in oil....... UK data today: Carney speak/BOE + inflation! update Hedge funds piling on the bets on oil downturn 2016 global outlook is down from IMF this am Have a wild day Have a wild day
old hand comment: Market $lide down to fears of global recession....... Market will adjust to a new oil market where the the swing producer is not there anymore and could take a few years.... Chinese themselves do not know how much their economy is growing and that unconfirmed gossip gets around..... China data on economy,gdp 4Q,etc will dictate on how market goes in US on Tuesday Wall Street closed on Monday China data Monday: gdp retail sales industrial production
Editorial comment: Market $lide could go 15% more,with spikes on the way down,it's a waiting game,preserve your capital Fed speak from key participants on FOMC conflict/confuse Iran deal cleared,and nobody can put a handle on where oil will settle!