If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
ALCOA came in with figures better than fcst'd due to supplying construction,autos and aviation industries General sentiment is that a rally in oil is needed as the catalyst for URI to get going again Recent forecasts / analysis for URI fairly static Earning sea$on will di$h up some decent dip$$$ and the big money will be just waiting for that and a good old fashioned rebound. to follow. June forecasted to be geopolitiocally hot with BREXIT,Spanish elections! and Greece the ingredients so far! The way AHT is moving at the moment it could go under £8 and even better valu£££ USA data: redbook import/export data nfib data budget data UK data: cpi ppi rpi Germany data: cpi Iraq has more oil production and Iran has not really got going yet And that BUZZ finger!!!$$$£££ has returned URI release earnings on 20th April and sp is bunnying all over the place Have a wild day
Ambitious expansion plans are moving ahead after a £2 million investment in recently acquired Rapid Climate Control and which has been successfully integrated with climate control company Fral UK acquired last October'15. The business plan will make A-Plants Climate Control Division the premier provider of climate control services/productsin the UK, serviceing flood management,media,events and retail amongst others. Investment in a broad range of equipment and new locations to broaden network in UK is in progress. Rapid Climate Control will operate as a stand alone within A-Plants Climate Control Division. ---------------------------------------------------------- US aluminium company ALCOA report after closing bell on Monday. Roll on Monday
Recent survey: 74% of contractor respondents rent more T4 compliant equipment/machines Original Equipment Cost (OEC ) increases due to T4 compliance have made it more necessary for 21% of contractors to rent machines. T4 compliant units are on average about 12% more in rental fees than T3 units. ...................................................................... Market comment: Wholesale inventories data disappoint for February and some economists now are calling a weak 1 Qtr GDP number/or even negagtive! Since 1990 the average error rate in the government 1 Qtr GDP number is +/- 1.3 ! $$$ has fallen 4.1% in 1 Qtr 2016 and will help multi - nationals outperform domestic companies Invest in multi-nationals,healthcare and tech Markets will not go higher as overall economic and revenue growth remains $luggish ............................................ Have a good and safe weekend Roll on Monday
There will be more sell-offs but not as bad! as we have seen so far BUT markets will recover because the money has to go somewhere Patience and $$$woop US earnings forecasted to be painfull Have a wild day
Ashteads A-plant acquires: Euremica Ltd which specialises in the hire,sale and recalibration of testing,measurement and process control instrumentation. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PSS Hire launches new all terrain vehicles for utility and contractor companies ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a wild day
US consumer credit climbs 5.8% in February up 17.2 billion $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ above forecasts of 14 billion+$ Have a wild day
Forgot to mention Happy Baker Hughes day - rig count Fed Speak. Recent comment citybthis am: maybe a Fed hike in December/ a global economy Have a wild day
French industrial and manufacturing production disappoint this am UK industrial production b4 10am ................................................... Business investment in UK down by 2% - BREXIT fears. ........................................................ US labour data this week remains robust ----------------------------------------------- Market comment: $$$ bullrun is in the rearview mirror US data of note: wholesale inventories commodities on rally this am all eyes/ears on BOJ Chair yellen dismisses bubble economy and will not unwind balance(a long wait that one)sheet until economy recovers,because when they do it causes a contraction of credit available to businesses Looks like a risk on am in these loopy markets Have a wild day
URI under 60$ as US factory data disappoint and oil falling. USA data: pmi services ism non mfg international trade redbook jolts eci ...................................................................... EU data: pmi services Nikkei in red as concerns over negative interest rates weigh Have a wild day
EU unemployment continues to fall,albeit slowly as economy grows modestly US construction $pend data this am/ USA
US construction firms added 37000 jobs in March and over 300000 YOY and spend in February increases from a year ago in all major categories and as much as 20% in several segments. Construction unemployment at a 10 year low. Construction jobs growing at twice the rate of total non farm jobs. Construction industry steadily expanding to meet growing demand. ...................................... US data: factory orders labour market conditions consumer spending fed speak and $$$pring ! is here Have a wild day
Recent comment/Jobs: Real unemployment figure is close to 13%. Job participation is just 62%+ Those not participating have not upskilled,or given up looking for a decent wage,or stayed on in college to get better qualifications,leaving slack in labour market and not then pressuring employers to increase wages,not to mention jobs that are not full time. March job number in the past 8 yrs has come in wide of mark (-), seven times Have a wild day
Happy Baker Hughes day, Editorial comment: US trucking freight which accounts for about 70% of the transportation in the US economy jumped over 7% in February,but however has voiced concerns of high inventory levels. Trucking industry has welcomed the new transportation bill which will be a +++ for the industry and will continue to lobby for further investment in US infrastructure. .................................................................... Market comment: S&P 500 index finished quarter up nearly 1% after falling as much as 10.5% at one point in February. That makes it the first quarter since the Great Depression where the benchmark fell more than 10% and the rebounded to end higher. The sharp fall in 2016 and equally sharp recovery sent investors globally scrambling to shift their money. In January investors pulled $4.97 billion from global equity funds and then poured $7.49 billion back in. ............................................................. China pmi mfg this am is nothing to get excited about as major mfg industries are in trouble,BUT service industry is strong and consumer spending/sentiment doing well and also infrastructure spending as on analyst commented. BOJ business sentiment - GLOOMY .............................................................................. US data: non-farm payrolls / wages,partcipation etc motor vehicles pmi mfg ism mfgf construction spending consumer sentiment baker hughes rig count fed speak --------------------------------------- EU pmi mfg this am came in signalling expansion BUT deflationary pressures came in on other data as ECB/Draghi purchase 80 billion E of assets etc today Forecasts for US job numbers are around 200000 approx. First day of 2Q and ''only fools rush in'' ! Have a wild day
The pivotal point for AHT will be the URI Qtr on 19th April US earnigs kick in on 11th April ............................................................ AHT could drift well into £8 low again BUT bol to those still onboard US earning forecasts are not optimistic ........................................................ US data: jobless claims jolts consumer sentiment money supply eia natural gas Chicago pmi fed speak ------------------------------------ UK gdp came in at 0.6% However business investment down 2%- BREXIT contributing Have a wild day
Analyst comment: ....''Fed has given stocks a green light and next hike looks like after election''........ ......''.Feds outlook is a game changer''................. ................................................................. Analyst summary Of Fed Chair/Yellen: Feds cautious approach is cognisant of a slow global economy and to maintain a softer dollar Economist comment: .....''There is too much private sector debt and investors will not rush in'...... ......''another year of slow global growth''........... ................................................................... There is also 11 trillion$$$ in EM debt that needs to be serviced and big defaults in EM are a major concern not to mention defaults in some US energy companies maybe fast approaching ---------------------------------------------------------- USA data: mba mortgages eia petroleum status adp employment Fed speak Fed speak/Singapore: ....''US economy is holding up well to global headwinds''...... EU data: german cpi ----------------------------------------------------------------- Lennar US construction company earnings beat Wall St. expectations and built approx. 5000 houses at an average price of 365K$$$ for the Qtr and the average price increase 5,7% YOY and as one analyst commented reflects the general optimism when prices are increasing Analyst comment: ....''House prices will plateau atr some stage-and plateaus don't burst/carefull lending-BUT bubbles burst/careless lending''... Asia green this am except Japan with poor industrial data release Comment from the floor of Wall Street at closing bell: ....''its good for stocks and its good for Disneyland''..... Lets see how things go - if you sit on a profit b4 the cosing bell then bank it and wait for the next load of turbulence Whats concerning commodities traders now is the po$$ability of a Buffalow Jump However its a bu££ for the moment Have a wild day
Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks today to NY Economic Club and City comment this am expects a dovi$$$h sentiment to prevail and expect Yellen/ FOMC to leave inflation-(or Stagflation) overheat! Recent hawkish speak from unelected officials Bullard and Co have no voting rights on FOMC Yesterdays US data-and a data driven Fed-gives a likelihood of an 8% probability that Fed will pull trigger in April Looks like June/but data dependent and accommodative. ......................................................................... Japan Abe might be cooking! something on the Fiscal side The accommodation of central banks are for governments to come up with something on the fiscal and structural side and that combined with monetary policy gives investors a big appe£i£e The average demographic of EM's is 26yrs-a spending age- and the average demographic of developed economies 43 yrs and a saving age EM's are still very attractive to stock picking investors ...................................................................................... US housing gets off to a flying $pring start Distortion/voltality in previous housing data is down to new regulatory paperwork introduced last October/2015 and is going through a settling in period and is a contributing factor as it has cost realtors business ------------------------------------------------------- Investors are also keenly watching Fed Chairs guidance on markets. ------------------------------------------------------------- One city comment this am says Fed may leave inflation go over 2% to cool off the $$$ and give a boost to oil and commodities. -------------------------------------------------------------- URI upgraded by Piper Jaffray yesterday to outperform and has a target price of $111$ and is also an outperform rating for AHT Mining sector under pressure this am and putting breaks on FTSE 100 USA data: Fed speak/Yellen HPI consumer confidence Slipperyslope thanks for reply Have a wild day
This new Service Centre in Doncaster is a new location for A-Plant Rail a division of A-Plant and is well located within the engine room of Doncasters rail sector. Doncaster was strategically chosen due to the large amount of overhead line- OHL- work taking place across the north of England. This new Service Centre/A-Plant Rail supports/services the ongoing electrification works and infrastructure plans around the Northern Powerhouse initiative giving a solid platform for growth and justifies the large investment in this new location with state of the art facilities offering a fleet of new specialist equipment. A-Plant Rail are active members of the Rail Alliance. Also operating from this new location is a A-Plant Tool Hire Express facility offering a range of equipment/products to the trades and general public-DIY. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Recent Fed speak-Williams San Fransisco Fed President: ...''US is doing fine and global developments are preventing US from returning to normalized interest rates''... ------------------------------------------ US Concrete listed on NYSE is a stellar performer,just can't make enough of the stuff. ------------------------------------------------- Asia and oil in green this am Have a wild Monday Have a wild
Job data released by US Labour Dept/Friday/analyst comment: .....in most parts of country construction continues to oupace other industries in adding jobs..... ............contractors remain confident/upbeat medium term and despite tight labour/skilled are still managing to fill vacancies...... ......tight labour availability is a major concern,but contractors are proactive with their construction lobby in Washington/demanding training-construction priorities......... .....Feb 2015/Feb 2016 YOY construction jobs increased in 43 states and in 27 states from Jan 2016/Feb 2016...... ............construction investment has helped to offset the significant reduction in energy company capex....... ............................................................................ This is a rental industry comment from early 2014: .....moderate industry growth encourages the ongoing secular penetration of rentals and mitigates against over investment in rental fleet........ and also gives AHT a $pringboard to grow its business responseably,a phrase used by CEO/Drabble and clearly a business model that is working. ..................................................................................... Non-farm payroll forecasted around 200,000/March on Friday Encouraging sentiment is that Manufacturing is in recovery. Mid April approx. 1Qtr earnings kick in. Markets forecasted generally to move sideways till end of 2Qtr! one commentator referred to it as a ''bunny market''hopping around a lot Editorial comment: ...we are not in a recession and we are not heading for one.We think that a recession this year or next is a low probability of only 20%.... ................................................. Editorial comment: .....when companies cut back on capex/investment,investing in new machines/tools/tech upgrades,they are withholding the means that make workers more productive and wages stagnate/and spending power/and standard of living...... Have a wild monday
Hi mick-b, Thanks for data and the most important factor is market remains in a confirmed uptrend. The Fed speak from unelected officials/like Bullard etc says one analyst just reflects the ongoing debate within the Fed. However interest rate hike banter is also an endorsement that US economy is OK and global economy can live with it. Thursday URI came back 6/10 of 1% and CAT over 2% and that was a po$itive. CAT has a hold rating and was upgraded from mixed to positive recently as demand for heavy equipment continues into Q1 2016 and demand from non-resource industries remained $table,North America/Europe remain its growth markets and pockets of growth in EM's for a well run tech savvy company. Yesterdays US GDP came in at 1.4% and beat the estimate of 1% Yesterdays figures as one analyst described, as the lack of investment in businesses/but also due to an inventory overhang,however the relatively strong domestic consumer spending underscores the underlying strength of the US economy. Next non-farm payrolls is also hinted by Fed to be good and Yellen may allow the inflation figure-core-they monitor to rise aboive the 2% Oil comment as of yesterday says at end of summer a barrel will be back down around 30$ and one comment remarked that if Saudi Arabia/Iran after a 1400 year Islamic Sunni/Shia belief conflict,can come up with an agreement on oil production,then there will be icebergs found floating in the Amazon. Not much optimism for OPEC meeting in April,but hopefully! something could come out of it. ------------------------------------------------------------ Wall Street trader comment: ...with QE the market went up all the time,but now its a traders market and a stock pickers market... AHT has served up some decent dips since New Year and its range at the moment is extreme £7.50ish to about low £9,and at the low share price the payday is proportrionally more. USA data Monday: international trade in goods dallas fed manufacturing pending home sales personal income and outlays Economist commented on the decline in earnings of US companies as an earning recession and NOT an economy recession and for the moment the economy is on autopilot. The $dollar$ is the global reserve currency and FOMC are cognisant of that.Sentiment on next hike is June! Roll on Monday
$trong dollar;high oil inventories and Fed hike/April! will weigh on sentiment. URI/CAT/AHT will have shorters to live with. USA data: jobless claims eia natural gas pmi services consumer sentiment durable goods Fed speak Market speak: $trong dollar driven by hawki$h stance amongst some in FOMC Futures RED on both sides of Pond Have a wild day