Member Info for viable

https://diariolaregion.com/web/kukamas-del-rio-puinahua-exigen-inicio-del-plan-de-abandono-en-el-lote-95/

Quietly pleased to see GTE out of the picture.
Expect Ellson and Guidry to vacate within a month, probably next week.

Not at all pleased by the latest Puinahuan news.
And further developments can be expected downriver at Iquitos.
Another meeting going on there this afternoon.

I begin to wonder if Castillo will survive for much longer.
My earlier expression of "gunboat diplomacy" could become reality.
Doubtful if laden barges can wander to Manaus unescorted.

https://gyazo.com/cb5e1c8ec3c4b0720ec1592e29f698e2

Purloined from ADV as my standard link ain't so hot:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/itineraries/all/shipid:753567/mmsi:636012638/shipname:ENSCO%20107
There should be another advisory @ 04:00 UTC.

SEA7: Thanks for keeping us up to speed on Maari bill.

The problem is a number of them will be at the refinery on Friday, presumably in part bussed along the river in transport provided by Petrotal. Otherwise they would have difficulty getting there. Are they then likely to attempt a blockade of approaches to the refinery?

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/itineraries/all/shipid:753567/mmsi:636012638/shipname:ENSCO%20107

Regular updates on Valaris 107.
Certainly swinging on its legs if nothing else.
0.1 knots.

With more than one vessel encircling Valaris 107 it is almost certain the workovers on Skua are completed. The rig should be on its way to Buffalo within hours. Marinetraffic seems to be regularly updating its advisories every two hours:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/itineraries/all/shipid:753567/mmsi:636012638/shipname:ENSCO%20107

Having read the latest threats to Station #5 as per PetroPeru media I hope they are smart enough to reroute all laden company barges to Manaus. As the next pow wow is due to take place at the Iquitos refinery on Friday that venue is likely to receive similar treatment to ONP.

Yep, unfortunately once these fellas are on the river the navy has to step in. It was always going to happen. Today's protesters have all the gadgets for comms. Just like African countries they plead oppression, poverty and destitution but 000s of them have cellphones glued to their ears.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/itineraries/all/shipid:753567/mmsi:636012638/shipname:ENSCO%20107

The rig might be preparing to go . . . certainly has shifted its position.

re: c) - Yes, I should have highlighted how reliant PetroPeru is on PTAL's throughput - both now and near term. Without it Talara's local resource will be reduced to a trickle. ~100k barrels are needed daily through ONP. 25k via Bretana goes some way to filling the pipe. In other words the "whole package" is critical for the economy.

In addition I had hoped PTAL would combine/partner on Lot #64 exploration and development, further utilising Station #5. (Osheki and Constitucion seem to be off the agenda as the programme looks to be concentrated on the Bretana pad.)

https://www.petroperu.com.pe/english/press-room/multimedia-gallery/videos/
(See video which illustrates capacity of new motobomba capable of 20k barrels per day. I believe Station #1, Saramuro, was refurbished in terms of its working parts during September.)

In effect all that needed to be said is Petrotal is possibly the most important cog/component for the whole industry to function properly.

"Massively undervalued", yes, but there's a raft of complexity:
a) Petroperu with its stalled and ailing pipeline;
b) the $4.2-billion Talara refinery upgrade going nowhere;
c) Pacific offshore blocks almost at zero;
d) Loretans who regard themselves as separatists (a la Basques);
e) open-ended demands incl. free electricity and water adjacent to pump stations;
f) handouts = education, medical facilities/medicine, river-bus transport plus more;
g) Mongabay effect. See - https://news.mongabay.com/2021/11/in-perus-amazon-deforestation-and-crime-sweep-through-indigenous-communities/ which includes the Loreto grievance;
h) burnt out vehicles at Station #1 (17 November;
i) Parte Libre and everyone in Lima lacks competence
and the list goes on.

Manolo's only way forward at present is to carry on with Ucayali/Amazon cargoes.
The route does not have to include the Maranon where the trouble lies.
In the meantime Talara is something of a white elephant although the refinery does not become fully operational until April 2022.

Admission - I reduced by 50% based on the premise that Novum can not jack up barge numbers to the Ucayali/Amazon. Also, but unknown -
a) additional Brazil river permits for increased transit; and
b) PetroPeru diversion of laden barges to Iquitos and Manaus.

Delivering/emptying the 8,000- and 20,000-barrel cargoes downstream will ease Manolo's headache. There should be no need for cutbacks, allowing 9H to come online, if the step is possible.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:753567/mmsi:636012638/imo:8768672/vessel:VALARIS_107

Have taken up a fair quantity but won't hang around if Valaris remains anchored along the shelf for another month. Unlikely, of course. Expect to see a rig advisory tomorrow, all being well.

For what it's worth, even though there could be some slow going ahead, SHG is not a concern at present. Perhaps bias is a result of affinity/familiarity with those areas of Kenya and Tanzania where we operate. I am satisfied that NLGM will eventually equate to the two other mines adjacent to Lake Vic. Up north, the grades coming out of Bushi/Isulu are not a figment of imagination. And if probes >500 m continue to exceed expectations Barrick and others will be back in the frame. Shanta - other than open pit - can't do the job alone.

My bigger anxiety is SOLG. A laboriously over-manned BoD has been leaden and I smartly withdrew two-thirds of investment @ ~34p. Agreed BHP or a.n.other may come up with the wonga but 10+ years has been a long road. SHG in the meantime has made larger waves. Significantly it is producing.

I haven't ever taken $2000 Au as a given. Far from it. If, however, $1850 can hold for the time being it will aid cash flow.

I should have made better use of my smarts rather than fiddling around with other North Sea prospects.at the beginning of the year. Have however bought a decent wedge 10 days ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpTHi7O66pI

Like A Savory I spent most of my productive life in southern Africa. What he had to say and recommend in 2013 represents possibly the only solution to halt self-destruct this century. Fossil fuels (except for coal) comprise a relatively small contribution to greenhouse emissions.

The evidence after regularly tramping the Karoo, Kalahari, Namibia, Botswana and Zim was impossible to ignore from 1970 onwards. 10-billion global population is, of course, apocalyptic.

Unfortunately the do-gooders, road-blockers, etc have very limited knowledge and understanding of the greenhouse gas subject. Killing the Amazon, Congo and Indonesia hardwoods will accelerate the process.

Of greater relevance is Valaris 107 has yet to weigh anchor and head for the Buffalo field.

I note the 400k buy @ 17:36 £424.45k originated from Canada (Can$1.79).

Have finally taken up some stock this morning.

Frustrating, yes. Have left my modest holding intact and am using surplus cash to exploit a handful of other opportunities. We could be becalmed for another week.

A handy sum accumulated/executed over two working days by someone.
Patience . . ..

Just put up on ONP board

https://www.petroperu.com.pe/english/press-room/news-and-announcements