Member Info for verdeceleste

Alicia
not sure that the shorts have reduced - the lower % reflects the extra 2 billion shares - plus some guys have been pushed below the 0.5% threshold
Verde

Myo
At £45 an article this stuff is probably written by a 'bot - you can't expect research anymore than accuracy :)
Verde

LL
Surely the average liberal prefers Qatar to the Saudis, Donald Trump and the other anti - Iranians ?
Verde

jonesrichard
You're lucky my average is 23p
and I don't like his snarky comments either - he's just joined my filtered list :)
Verde

The analyst will not have had anything to do with setting the price of the placing - probably not even Liberum - it would be JPM for reasons to suit themselves
IMO you are worrying for no reason:)
Verde

yes Nanny

ffc
agree that the best time for someone wanting to take over Sirius would be the start of 2023 when production proper is just starting.
but there are 2 billion new shares out there in the hands of professionals who would most likely snap up a quick 50% profit
so how many of the existing holders would bale out? - and at what price-? - or have the nervous ones already sold out?

This is one of those questions to which we, hopefully,will never know the answer

Verde

Why isn't someone like Glencore making an open offer for 29.9% of SXX shares at say 22p ?
It would probably be good for the Company and certainly good for the buyer and only cost £300m or so for something that will be worth billions in a few years time
Verde

casa
My thoughts exactly
Now would seem to be an opportune time for someone to attempt a takeover
My question is - would they be successful at say 20p or 25p ?
Presumably with 30% of the shares issued at 15p - all those holders would be tempted by a quick profit?
ffc
you might not accept such a bid - neither would I - but it's still a valid question

Verde

welcome Bigm

Must agree the way things are going a takeover looks like a bigger risk than finance or construction delays.
What one wonders would the response be to a 20p a share cash offer tomorrow?

Verde

Myo
Just a reminder - first SBR will reach the polyhalite seam Friday April 15th 2021 (see my post lat October)
lol
Verde

ffc
got 31 on my filter list and I only get rid of guys with one (repeated) message - never cut out the wind up merchants like SL
wonder what the limit is ?

Verde

Brad
Sounds as if HL terminology is confusing you - when they refer to "Funds" they mean unit trusts as opposed to ordinary shares
They have a holding cap for shares at £200 for a SIPP £45 for ISA and no holding charge for shares in their "fund and share" accounts.
I use HL for USA listed stocks and have never had any problem

Verde

Myo
I suspect the deal in India may be with an Indian majority owned Company/joint venture with the Sirius India subsidiary being the minority interest - this will then resell to an NGO (which is not allowed to deal with foreign Companies) - which will then resell at a subsidized price to locals.
But then it may just be something to do with GST on imports?
Main thing is we will be selling a lot of Poly4 :)
Verde

Brad
Seems like to be really rich or successful in this world it helps to be in the right place at the right time :)

And for those who have never been south of the Angel of the North or north of the Thames - Watford Gap is nowhere near Watford - it's a service station on the M1 north of Milton Keynes - which I was bought up to believe marked the limit of the civilized world :)

Verde

Yesterday there were a couple of ill informed posts more or less dismissing the 900 workers on this project which quite rightly incurred the wrath of Myo etc.
Over the months there have been lots of comments about how goo Sirius is for the local economy and workforce - and it will be for decades to come.
Looking at it from the other direction - just think how incredibly, incredibly lucky Sirius is to have found polyhalite under the North Yorkshire Moors rather than in the middle of nowhere in North Dakota or northern West Australia?
Not only are there people looking for jobs - there are skilled workers - it takes years to become a skilled welder or fitter - Sirius can just retrain them in weeks - and they are going to be permanent employees because they don't have to uproot there families and move hundreds of miles to get the job.
Then there's the cultural thing -like shift working-and redundant office/shop workers are not used to hours of physical work (looking round my allotment site is proof of that) And that's just English cultural differences - you are setting up in some third world spot - no electricity - no water - no prob - dig a well, hire a generator - right, until some local who doesn't understand English and has never seen mains electricity goes and electrocutes themselves (yes - it's happened to me )
Then there's the managers/specialists would they prefer to bring there families to a scenic bit of Yorkshire or have to fly down to Perth every couple of weeks just to see the kids?
In the seventies I was involved with projects in third world locations - I would have loved to ship a TBM from Germany and find a guy with heavy moving gear two miles up river in Redcar. Want 3000 tons of steel construction? - there's a firm just 30 minutes away can do that for you - amazing!! Finance? - London is the world leader and only four hours away.
Make no mistake this project is going ahead as smoothly as it is because of where it is and because of the people working for us - the owners.
Verde

and I DO live south of Watford Gap :)

Myo

Yes - it's like my weight - goes up in kilograms and down in pounds :)

To me the question isn't "can they shift the bonds" it's "what interest will we have to pay" - 7% - 8% - 10% ??

Verde

casa
The new CBs only pay 5% in the short term but there is a huge balloon payment at maturity which makes them worth 10%
Left to themselves I think there would be a good chunk of these bonds held to maturity and never converted. My worry is that the BoD will force a conversion at some point - causing unnecessary dilution.
Note that a lot of holders in the original CBs failed to convert to the new CBs - presumably they like the 8.5% yield?
Verde

The first poly in 2021 is a red herring - although creating the caverns at the bottom of the mine will produce hundreds of thousands of tons of polyhalite (to be transported by road) mining proper will not start for another eighteen months
The projections are for "just" 2 million tons in 2023 - the cash keeps going the wrong way until end 2023 - and that's assuming delays of no more than a few months
Verde

PS -- I am not selling and am taking up the OO

Myo/GK

My projection was assuming that the Company goes immediately to 13mtpa and 20mtpa as I cannot really envisage CF doing anything else :)
Also that a token dividend would be paid late 2024, but not increasing much until 2028

Slurms
Once we get to 13mtpa the cash flow is strongly positive and at 20mtpa it's ginormous - I have them refinancing from 2025 and we could be debt free by end 2030 if the BoD wanted - and there's no takeover

Verde