Member Info for verdeceleste

Inspired by Myo, over the last couple of weeks I have ploughed through the new prospectus and found loads of unexpected detail in the consultant's report at the end. See for example the production ramp up graph on page 474 which shows clearly that production only really starts in 2023.
Having nothing better to do last evening I ran the numbers for the next 11 years and given reasonable assumptions the cash just about holds out and in 2030 we could be getting 5p a share dividend and SP of £1.50 to £2
BUT looks to me as though there will be a great opportunity for some predator to take the company over in early 2024 @ 80p

Personally at 77 years old, I probably won't see 2030, so will not be unhappy with the takeover.
Will we ever see the £1 party?

DYOR

Verde

Fred
Don't you think the pink limo will be a bit of a giveaway?
Verde

The St Leger meeting this year includes Friday 13th - will this be the day the RNS re the $500m bond is published?
Is this a bad omen?
Will the next dilution be at 10p?
Verde

What's a deramp anyway?

LL
Surely the $500m of plain bonds will not appear until September? Why pay interest from June?

Verde

prospectus says all directors except CF are taking up open offer

Verde

Not sure if anyone has commented on this but on page 165 of the new prospectus we are said to be in advanced discussions for an Indian TorP which ramps up to 1.25 mtpa
Also a small Middle East TorP is in the pipe line
So looks like the 13mtpa is pretty well accounted for - roll on 20mtpa

Verde

Prof.Chow

Not every body is upset with you - please keep posting :)

Verde

Chilting

Thanks for the info - seems like it's what I suspected, but worse

Verde

GK
The original plan was to push on immediately to 13mtpa then last September the extra $400/600m came into play and the 2nd granulating line and 13mtpa were apparently postponed.
BUT stage 2 should total well over $3.8b - looks to me like construction is going back to plan A

I agree we should be looking at valuing a 13mtpa mine and forget the 10mtpa

My average buying price is low 20's so I should have sold and bought back last week but we start from where we are - still happy with prospects for 5 and 10 years ahead

Verde

now Myo has returned my hope is that this BB will start looking forwards not backwards

so ..... no TorP from India - I seem to remember reading somewhere that fertilisers in India are heavily subsidised by the government - is this correct? - would it mean no chance of advance sales of a new product?

anyone know anything about agriculture in India?

Verde

welcome back Myo - you've been missed :)

Verde

Just to get one thing straight - apart from speculation on this BB there is no reason to suppose Capital did sell a load of shares - if they had they would have gone below 4% holding and probably 3% holding and we would have had RNS to that effect

Verde

casa

but as I understand it of the $244m of outstanding CBs only about $108 have agreed to swap into the new CBs.
whats the logic there?

Verde

Casa
The terms of the new CBs are confusing me. Unless I am misreading the terms these bond holders are going to get 5% pa until either
a) they hold to maturity when they get 60% bonus i.e the bond becomes a 10%pa straight bond
b} they convert to shares at 18.75p
c) post 2021 the Company forces a conversion

Now who is going to be buying these New CBs someone who wants 10% or someone who will take 5% and then convert

and will the Company ever force a conversion ?

thoughts please?

Verde

When Myo posted his were the posts I always read and I cannot think what he can have done to be permanently banned - it surely can't be because of insults oanr releasing price sensitive info and there are other posters who openly admit to being connected with the project
I just hope this isn't a permanent ban - is there any way of finding out?

Verde

woke up this morning to find you were still alive :)
welcome back - this BB was getting b****y heavy

Verde

LL

Yes it is just kicking the can 6 months down the road
but it's been done without slowing construction
and the quotes from CF today sound remarkably positive
and there's always Plan C, Plan D etc etc

Verde

you can buy crystal balls on ebay
my wonky one says 35p/70p/120p
but IMO above 16p for certain

Verde

Lost

My thoughts on situation - for what they are worth

1) CF was 3 or 4 months late pulling the plug on Plan A - but hindsight is always 20/20

2) The current equity raise plus $50m for Gina's shares should just about keep the build going until January

3) In January the cash comes in from the new convertibles even if the new bonds fail - this keeps build going a few more months

4) at which point if the $500m bond does not materialise we go to Plan C (strategic partner??)

5) JPM are taking fees but not backing the bonds so we owe them zilch

6) The works will go on - the Company will not go bust

Verde

SP in 6 months time = 25p?

HLwill send message setting out your options
not sure about other trading platforms

Verde