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Ok nvm, my bad.

i mixed things up. The debt forecast was including the VAT refund. my bad.

No, didn't change my mind.

I still think that the VAT refund will fail.

THG guides a FCF of 25-50 million incl. the VAT refund. The VAT refund is 78 million.

So that means without the VAT refund, the underlying business is still cash flow negative, which i don't have any explanation for...

I'm not short, just a very disappointed bagholder.

It's clearly stated that the own guidance includes the VAT refund already.

But this also means that without VAT refund the company is still cash flow negative!! I don't know how, but that's what it means...

My updated predictions how things will play out:

- approval to both resolution

- THG wil buy back own shares instead of paying dividends to reduce the free float and increase the voting rights of MM (and all other shareholders ofc, but in my prediction MM will take THG private)

- low free-float = unattractive for institutional investors

- MM bid for MBO

- after he took it private he will start to pay dividends

The share price might rise because THG buys back own shares, but this also means that later MM has to buy fewer shares for his takeover. Also he uses the companies own money to increase his voting rights.

VAT claim will fail, SP will tank, MM will offer something around 40p

my prediction

Agree with takeover plan, don't agree with 70p.

It will be way lower, it's MM we are talking about

I personally still believe that MM will take it private. Just found out that a rollover option exists for large shareholder.

So instead of getting paid out, they will keep their share in the then private company.

Oh wait, just realized that the term"paying dividends" has also another meaning. my bad, if you didn't mean it literally.

I'm not expecting a dividend anytime soon. Wise is in full growth mode. The CEO mentioned it many times. I think that's also a reason why Wise moves to the US. British investors want a dividend, US Investors appreciate growth stories better.

Also the CEO secured majority voting rights over the next 10years with the US-Listing. So he can execute his strategy without pressure from institutional investors (who might want a dividend/different capital allocation strategy)

Guys, just read the FY2025 results:

"FY 2026 expectations remain unchanged and in line with the company consensus range. Net debt is anticipated to reduce to between c.£110m - £130m before any strategic asset disposals, through a combination of free cash flow generation and VAT repayments"

The net debt forecast 2026 INCLUDES VAT REFUND

No, i didnt mean you with idiot @lodan1

sorry, if it came out wrong

I meant the other people here on this board

no, they obviously don't know what they are investing in

don't know **** and also arrogant af - best combination

Thank you @lodan1

It is clearly written in the FY2025 results that the net debt forecast INCLUDES THE VAT REPAYMENT already.

"GARBAGE", "FUGAZI", "PAID DERAMPER"

You are simply idiots.

THG is the only company who publicly claimed a VAT refund. Many people on this board seem to think its certain that THGs claim will be successfull. I'm not so sure about that. Would be a big disappointment. THGs net debt forecast also include the VAT refund already..

Didn't they indicate in the last trading update Q&A that they will reach FCF positivity next year?

so expecting a dividend this year in absolute nonesense

Still think that he will take back THG Remainco too.

SP Premium of 30-40% for us little retail investors. And a little bit more for the big institutional investors.

Very solid numbers.

I am expecting even accelerated growth when Wise US National trust application gets accepted and they have direct acces to the FED rails.

Competitors making money although they are also impacted by high whey input costs.

To blame high whey input prices is too easy.

@James

Your thesis is only right, if Myprotein can maintain their selling prices while input prices drop.

But it's more likely that Myprotein also has to adjust their selling prices downwards to stay competetive. Because some competitors will defnitely decrease their prices when they can.

I agree…management expecting accelerated growth so they invest in headcount - but there’s uncertainty about that, so the SP drops

I am also here for the very long term and will add to my existing position.

The CEO seems like a very genuine dude. Modest Salary, no bonus or other incentives - just like Bezos back in the days