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THG always good for a disappointment

Should have known better, been here from the very beginning.

Haven't listened to the Q&A, hope they will upload it soon

THG is an official system integrator partner of Autostore systems since last year. Unfortunately we haven't heard much about this partnership since the announcement.

On the PIO website THG is not even mentioned.

@Yes

Autostore SP is declining because they can't keep up with their growth forecasts from 2 years ago anymore.

Sales growth are slowing down dramatically (40% to about 10%). According to their own words, because of tough macro economics (high interest rates). They still have a massive order backlog, but to convert these into sales takes way longer than a two years ago (low interest rates).

This might change soon with every central bank cutting about to cut interest rates.

They also have to pay Ocado 200m due to an agreed patent litigation settlement in 2023.

And yes, their margin is way higher than retailers / e-tailers. Gross margin of about 70% and adjusted EBITDA of about 50% if i remember correctly.

The total revenue of the group will be very likely lower than last year, but don't forget that THG disposed non-core parts of its business (On-Demand, Coggles, ProBike Shop).

So instead of looking at the total revenue, a revenue growth/decline of the three core businesses (Beauty, Nutrition, Ingenuity) will be decisive.

Beauty and Ingenuity were growing in the last two quarters. Nutrion revenue was decreasing.

Who’s speaking in that audio @crafty?

Winning Müller as partner is really great!!

Will the products be available only in UK or worlwide/europe-wide?

@Crafty

i have to correct you, many products only lincenced the MP brand and are actually not THG products itself, so most of the revenue won't be assigned to THG .

THG will receive a royalty instead, which is basically pure profit.

So i wouldn't expect such a high revenue growth as you do, instead higher profitability.

@BATGT

No, he meant retail sales. Crafty even agreed as u can see.

Even Crafty wouldn't be that delusional to think of £50/day of THG element in every outlet.

Offline retailers need a margin of about 40%. MM mentioned this in a Q&A when he was asked about the offline MyProtein strategy.

These additional 364m revenue in your example would be the outlets revenues, not THGs…

Agreed, if some or one large shareholder want to replace the CEO, but they know that they don‘t have the necessary backing yet, will just vote for the current CEO at the AGM.

No reason to show their cards.

So i also dont interpret too much into the 95%.

Every CEO who doesn‘t deliver (stock price) is under pressure. MM is no exception.

But he‘s not only CEO but also founder, what i like.

Let‘s see how long large investors stay patient.

Would love to hear more about the AutoStore x THG Ingenuity partnership at the capital market event or the THG Q&A Trading Update.

In an AutoStore Q&A it was mentioned that a PIO customer was signed, but the revenue is neglectable.

Is there a minimum price MM would have to bid in order to delist THG in case of a MBO?

In Germany we have the rule that the bid price must be at least the average of the stock price in the last six month.

That would be horrific.

Ingenuity is not worthless, because at least all the millions invested in AutoStore robots are part of it.

The real estate might be MM's, but the AutoStore robots belong to THG.

So there are real physical assets within Ingenuity.

The big question is what's the value of their tech stack.

Anyone have access to this times article?

https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/entrepreneurs/article/matt-moulding-thg-interview-08gkchg2r

Maybe it was discussed already on this board and i missed it. Just wanna read the interview.

@crafty

it was a genuine question. Maybe it's legal in the UK if the number is minimal.

@cong

yes, i checked the report. That's also where i found the note.

Ok, i found the answer in the notes:

Free cash flow is defined as total cash flow for the group adjusting for debt (repayments) / proceeds and acquisitions cash flows and in respect of FY23 the inclusion of a cash receipt of £11.2m from HMRC which was remitted to the Group in December 2023 but physically cleared the bank on the first working day of 2024. For presentation purposes, this is considered to be free cash flow as at 31 December 2023 as a result of the remittance advice received.

So it's legal i guess

Just checked the FY2023 report again.

THG claims they achieved cash-flow break even for the FY2023, but actually they had a negative free cash-flow of 1,135 million according to the cash flow statement.

It's minimal, but is it legal to claim being cash flow break-even, if you are not in`the UK?

Is it possible to read the whole Peel Hunt report somewhere?

Do they differentiate between internal and external Ingenuity revenues in their report?

@peoplepower1

AutoStore doesn't need more funding. But they missed guidance / analyst expectations the last 3 quarters, so consequently the stock went down.

Companys hold back with big investments with currently high interest rates.

But as i said, i don't expect this capital market event to have a big impact on THG. THG is a testimonial for Autostore on this event. Maybe they will highlight their pay-per-pick model.

Some ppl seem to be overhype the capital market day.

Don’t forget, it is an Autostore Capital Market Day and not THG!

It can be nice marketing for THG, but I don’t expect any more out of it for THG.