Member Info for Velo

Yes it has been hinted at, but no more than a hint so far.
A 'nominal' payment for the year just ended is "expected" to be announced in the full year trading update due to be published in a few months.

(The last trading update reiterated previous intentions to restore the dividend from this financial year that started this month: see the quote from the October RNS below:

" Dividends:
As previously communicated, the group expects to pay a nominal dividend in respect of the year as a whole, before adopting a progressive dividend policy in line with a dividend cover of 1.4 times from the 2019 financial year. "

(Concludes......)

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Original post by myself responding to Chartlist2's direct request to me, back on 02-08-2018:

"I doubt that N4P will come to much, not a full recovery (IMO) and if does, I doubt it'll ever get to 15p, nor defo get past 15p and only then if very, very, very, lucky at any point this year - 15p is probably fine for you, if it does, with your low entry, but I wouldn't expect that even as a remote possibility until approx January as a temporary dead cat bounce only, then revert to type if it continues in this profit-warning mimickery - it's not going to be a full recovery to the pre-crash price of 23p

This kind of talk always pops up in a profit warning hit share, but they nearly always are false positives. I hope it does turn out to be a new long term uptrend for you, but I truly don't know about these minnows; but you do appear to.

I do though know something about profit warning hit shares, and they stay floored the full year apart from a noticeable dead cat bounce (Approx January in this case if it goes go the same way as the bigger MCaps).

Why a pile of she -!te you ask? It's based on fundamentals. Not a single good sign there. (Can't be with net loss year after year, after year, after....It does have one though, a good debt metric - in that it doesn't have debt at all - it has the opposite - a surplus! So you should be safe for awhile before it goes cap in hand seeking additional funding.

I suppose these experimental drug research type start-up's are allowed to misbehave, for years and years before they hit pay-dirt, but it would be like waiting for paint to dry to me.

Revenue is utterly and totally unreliable: £2.26m in 2013,
then zero for 2 years running after that, didn't sell a single bean, ZERO!
followed by £1.61 revenue in 2016,
then last year it came in with just £0.11m (£110,000) - See? She -ite!

You've got to be a pure riverboat gambler with this one. But as I admitted the other day, these sub micro caps are not my forte, so if you can work them - good luck to you.

My prognosis? The uptrend you feel likely will IMOnly, peter out unhelpfully and the SP will sink lower or become range bound in this 6 to 8p area, never really delighting. I think it's toxic and I definitely wouldn't go round recommending it on forums to the unsuspecting - it's for out and out experienced gamblers only.

I'll be happy to be a monkey's uncle if it rockets into an uptrend, which I think highly unlikely, and will pop in now and then to accept my punishment should it behave as you suggest you feel it might, which is contrary to what I feel about it - which is disappoint!"
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That's my response to your latest missive Chartist2 - the same as before - nothing's changed my opinion.

Never posted here before.

I'm posting a reply to Chartist2 here, who on Friday, regurgitated one of my old posts, on another site. I don't wish to clog up other forum boards answering FhartyCharty's N4P nonsense.

First off, I have no interest in N4P save but for him trying to persuade others to buy N4P back in the summer. I thought it was a speculative stock that having just crashed in price, I knew from research that such RNS releases, depress the SP for an extended period, so said what I thought of N4P based on that (and some of the balance sheet metrics). That's what started his obsession. After he'd let off a bit of steam at my expense, he then, in a separate post, albeit in a civil manner, asked me the following straightforward question -

Aug 2nd @ Chartist2 @ "Fair enough, Velo. I just mentioned n4p because it shows signs of a new long term uptrend......Why would you say "that pile of shai t..."?"

HE ASKED ME! I did not force my opinions on him. He asked!

So I replied in a civil manner on why I had reached my conclusion. He didn't like my reply to him (follows next).
So he rushed off to copy my reply on this board here, in a very mangled form, where the herd of rampers uniformly cursed someone who hadn't even posted here, he then copy pasted that bile back on to the other site - satisfied, he did the usual 'filtered' thing. It should have ended there. To my surprise he's calling out to me - as after he'd posted here on Friday quoting me yet again, he then simultaneously reposted one of my old posts on the other site on Friday - highlighting my name, but adding a fake opening sentence I never commenced with in the original post.

For the sake of clarity, in the next post is my original post so you can judge for yourself WITHOUT FhartyCharty faking an opening sentence which he posted as commencing with:

*** "I'll be happy to be a monkey's uncle if n4p rockets into an uptrend, which I think highly unlikely" Velo ***

That's not what I opened my post with at all. It's in the conclusion - but he's obviously trying to frame things to highlight this current, (marvellous) but temporary only, uptrend. I stand by every word of my original post. It's still in force. It's as if N4P is more or less, following the script in my post, so his header on the other board is null and void. N4P is behaving as I fully expect it to, as stated next following this.

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Original post by myself responding to Chartlist2's direct request to me, back on 02-08-2018 - follows next...

*** "I'll be happy to be a monkey's uncle if n4p rockets into an uptrend, which I think highly unlikely" Velo ***
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- Fakery! That was not how I commenced that old post. You've lifted it from the conclusion and taken it out of the concluding context to re-positioned it at the start of my post. All to try and highlight a current uptrend in that share that is the love of your life, no doubt.

It was 8p at the time of that old post. Shortly after it not only sunk to 6p as I posted below that it might - it later sunk down to 4p!

Where were you then, when it was 4p the other month? Eh?

It's in an uptrend right now, but still more than 50% below the pre-crash price, so read the next bit slowly - I still think it's only temporary. It has not reached nor breeched the price I set out in that old post. So nothing's changed. My post stands as is. Why post that here anyway?

What's wrong with posting it on your, and your fellow-rampers forum?

And that's it for here - not fair on PFG posters who couldn't care less for you ramping on, about other shares. I've replied to this post over there. But as you've said you've filtered me, how on earth will you ever read it - or this? Unless your word is utterly worthless; that's how.

Just been musing over where the potential floor could be. Time for a proper job. The trendlines and all indications are for yet more unrelenting down trending.

On visible supports, there's loads, but 2700, 2600, 2500, come up no problem. Could even go tons lower, but still wouldn't have a clue WHICH could be a likely floor - so ran a Fibbonacci from the crash depths of 2009 to present and the very best of the Fibbo's ratio's IMO known as the Golden Ratio (the 61.8% one) comes out at 2542p.

So there's a visible support at 2500 and there's loads more further south, and there's the 'last' and best Fibbo support of 2542p-ish'. So that's two methods conveniently ageeing on the 2500 area.

2500? I dunno. Scary.

Might A) Put a short on and A) Put a computer buy-limit order in for 2540's for my final top-up..

Haven't set up a spreadbet short position on it so far, as I was thinking I'm too late, should have acted a helluva lot sooner, but a couple of hundred points from here could be quite juicy. I now have two methods converging on the 2500's.

2500? Some might say utter balls, and I wouldn't blame them either - but in the absence of any common sense/ inside informastion, where the floor might be, I'll opt for the crystal ball rather than utter balls :) :) :)

Oopps!

1,000 apologies - looking at the wrong bladdy chart.

It was a day of two halves. Strong uptrend all morning to 12:30-ish - then the bears 'owned it' all afternoon right into close.

Still in a bigger bull trend though.

Just tidying uo at the end of the day, and I notice a bit of concern below in some earlier posts when the bears were in control of the SP.

Just checked - and yep, this is still in a committed bull uptrend. It will zig one day and zag the next.
But all wheels within wheels, inside a committed bull uptrend.

Can see what the alarm was though. The intrady prioce action shows that from 8:30am onwards the SP was in a strong uptrending SP - and it stayed so, all day right up until 3:30pm when reserve battalians of bears were brought on to take the fort and drive the bulls downhill for 45 mintues solid where all looked lost - but then a bugle sounded in the distance, the calvery came in, and from 4:15pm to close - and it was bulls all the way, raising the SP up into the close in 15 mnutes flat.

A home run for the bulls!

Just a bit of very minor bear zagging in a ziggy day that's all. Trend is bullish, healthy and alive. How does that song go again? It starts off: ...The only way is up.........

Arsenal58 - If you've read my previous post You'll see I don't spend my time anticipating floors and just let the trend inform me when it's good band ready. But here goes my attempt to force an answer to your question:

Tried recreating Buzle's chart on my own, but I think he's using one of those charts with a moveable chart that concertina's and distorts and squashes, and found it difficult to actually recreate precisely on my own static charts, which I far prefer. Tried turning logarithmic scale off, back on - no good.

So instead of using Buzle's 'September' chart, brought it right up to date , to include November's price action and as near as damn it Buzle's trend lines - but this time adjusting that annoying bottom trend line - I was shocked at the outcome.

So stopped right there and printed off Buzle's own chart as is, and used pen and ruler (after pasting it on to an A4 via a desktop publishing program and resizing to leave me plenty of room at the bottom) because adjusting that lower trend line took me way past Buzle's 59p to a shocking low!

Daren't say it because I think there's an error in doing it this rough and ready way. But you want to know what square I landed on, don't you? Okay but promise you won't laugh - low 20's (23p=ish)

See? Leave it to Buzle instead, don't ask me.

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What I can do by way of recompense is the obvious. The easily visible by naked eye, supports (there are many) that occur below the current price should the current SP fancy a day trip down there in the coming weeks/months.

I don't actually know which will be THE floor that rebuffs the retrace or whether tonight's close is in fact the floor to use for the next 12 months, could just as easily be so; but what I am saying is that in future months if the SP wants to throw a hissy fit much worse than you're seeing now, any one of there following could hold and stop the retrace that any hissy fit throws up.

55p
50p - Strong looking
High 40's
40p
Low 30's - Strong looking

- and the strongest of the lot, which uncannily fits right in with the messy job I did on Buzle's chart - 25p! - That's very uber strong looking.

But who the hell really knows? No one does. Certainly not me. Perhaps here in tonight's 50's area is ' it'.
No one has the power of prediction, well not on a consistent basis, so I only offer up those supports on a strictly fun basis only.

Concludes:

They repeat the advice - stay away for 12 months. (Again, personally I've noticed good lows in that period that were beneficial to long term holders - which brings me to my next point).

These profit hit shares DO NOT GO BANKRUPT. It's not a condition of the warning. In fact of the thousands researched they say it's so few that it's incalculable and considered irrelevant to the data.. So don't fear/worry it's the start of the end of the world for IQE, despite what the professional shorters say. Statistically, it doesn't happen to profit warning hit shares.

They have advice for long term holders and it's this. If you truly believe you're invested in a fundamentally good company, then you could use the opportunity to top-up at opportune lows, but to keep within budget - it's not a green-light. You've got to decide at the outset you are holding for a long time. Research indicates that the vast majority who claim to be in for the long term, crack under the strain and sell at the worst time when they can take no more, often just a month or so around the 12 month period when things are expected to become "safer".

For those looking to buy the advice is to hold off for 12 months until it's quote: "safer" to avoid the stomach churning volatility current holders are experiencing.

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Right will now to attempt to answer your original question Arsenal58 :) - in the next post.

Arsenal58, I'm sitting here cursing you :) Had jobs to do but instead got sidetracked into putting some effort into answering your question with some realistic potential SP supports rather than rough and ready results. In the end, gone back to rough and ready SP supports.

First off, I'm a trend follower, so prefer to let the trend be my friend and leave tops and bottoms for emergencies as staying with the trend always does that anyway - except for those mornings of profit warnings. They're nuclear bomb blasts out of the blue.
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But before replying to your original question - a preamble:

The only answer is that nothing is sacrosanct as regards the floor in a profit warning hit share. The floor can be revisited multiple times or very few times, no telling. What the research does show is that the SP never regains the price of the previous day's close that was in play before the morning of the actual profit warning - for at least 12 months (longer or shorter for a tiny 1% percentage called by the researchers: 'deviants')

And then it's only regarded as "safe" to buy - not that it will regain it's position of the night before , in this case the mid 90's but merely safer to buy after 12 months. So I can categorically say I fully expect the mid 90's to never show their face again for the remainder of this year, nor next, but it's a much safer landscape of expectation from the very first days of 2020.

They recommend giving a profit hit share a complete miss for 12 months for both bulls and bears loking to buy as both can end up disappointed.

Yes, the SP WILL fluctuate, (personally I've discovered that by trend following it is possible to make small 10 to 20% profit plays, if you get lucky occasionally in that time span, but risky).

There is absolutely no telling in such conditions where the floor is. It's the same from all researchers, from Europe, here in the UK and the States. The floor could be several months away , or this could be it, or it might be in a month's time. But it will confound and confuse. You will most definitely experience what you believe is a bullish uptrend and all your worries are over, but it will peter out before that mid 90's comes into sight. The price might hold higher than here. say 76p or whatever, for several months even, but mid 90's will always be out of reach for the next 12 months.

Often there's a substantial rally at the 6 month point but, personally I'm noticing it occur earlier than the research states. I'm also noticing some recovering well, almost linear in a binary way only, to fall to the all time lows in the 11th month. So there's just no telling in the first 12 months after the profit warning.

They repeat the advice - stay away for 12 months. (Again, personally I've noticed good lows in that period that were beneficial to long term holders - which brings me to my next point). . . . Continues.....

Buzle, I'm not a regular here, and don't intend to be (I have a lot of data on the behaviour afterwards, of Profit warning hit shares; hence my interest) so no need to reply if busy. First off congrats on buying in on your forecast price from back in Sept. It may be the floor here, might not, who can say for sure? (Although the data I hold shows that the next 12 months will mostly dissapoint rather than delight).

Here's my question: Just from casual interest, it's no biggie, I take issue with the points you chose on the lower trendline. It looks to me as if you've bought-in a little too early.

What I mean is the top trendline touches 2 tops of the candlestick bodies in two distinct areas on the way down. That's consistent and all to the good, making the upper line touch 4 points in total, so all good.

It's the lower trend line that looks a little out of synch to me, giving a little too early crossover point IMO.

The last point it touched on the way down is the bottom of a bullish candlestick. Yet the only other touch point appears to be what I first thought was that wick (tail) at 105.5 but immediately dismnissed that, as you can't have the wick for one and the body of another as the only 2 touch points.

Then I travelled along the lower trend line and realised you've chosen an area outside the uper line's area, namely either the top of that spinning top candlestick, which would be incorrect as you'd be running from the top of a body to the bottom of another body as the 2 touch points - which would give a false reading.

- Or you took the 'apparant' bottom of the big bull candlestick just above that spining top - but if you did, you can clearly see it runs 5% to 10% inside that candlestick, rendering that touch point as invalid.
Both options weould give a false reading.

So, in my estimation using your chart, it suggests to me that by using the two wicks for the lower trend line to touch - you'd end up with a much lower crossing point - much, much, lower than 59p.

Any observations on the chosen touch points of your lower trend line, and why you chose them?

Tom, your open question at 10:52am this morning -
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Tom, I think it's wholly a question of sentiment, and absolutely nothing else, certainly not fundamentals IMO. The year long bearish sentiment towards VOD, did a 100% turnaround yesterday, and confirmed this morning..

When sentiment is already in an established bearish down trend towards a company, then yes the example you give has been repeated many times elsewhere, of the SP failing to recover after exiting the XD period.

Had a truism rammed home to me yesterday, that fundamentals count for nowt - it's sentiment alone and nothing else that drives shares (and to me for the immediate future that means trend following, rules the roost).

Tell me, what is fundamentally different today, with VOD's accounts that was fundamentally different all this year leading up to Tuesday?

- The answer is nothing, to very little, everything that was known all year - was known on Tuesday. What has changed is SENTIMENT. I think on the balance of probabilities, should this current sentiment remain intact, then this forthcoming XD period will reinforce that this has been a turning point in VOD's very recent history. (That is, at least until the next crisis pops up :)

The reason sentiment changed? Purely on confirmation that even though dividends can't be fully met from earnings for the next 2 years, the dividend amount will be held (with perhaps the interim payments frozen). And that the shortfall will (confirmed again) easily be met from free cash flow.

Turns out the market wasn't worried over whether VOD can afford the current dividends, it was more concerned about having divis cut! The market was told in no uncertain terms, with serious intent - that the dividend is sort of 'ring-fenced' - and the market went batsh!t crazy. It was all about greed rather than fiscal prudence. It never was all about the affordability of the dividend - it was all about the market FEARING the dividend would be cut.

I have figures that show, far from producing a profit for the current year, that based on yesterday's update it will instead be a full year net loss!
Yet the market chooses to not care - it's all about being convinced the dividends will be maintained and financed, safely as they see it, from free cashflow. I have my doubts. But I have to side with sentiment, and hope I can get out of the way pronto, should my doubts and fears come home to roost.

Henceforth I feel safer trading VOD rather than investing. All charts are now singing VOD's praises. Trends are pointing up. I see potentially a little (temporary) blip possibly coming, but it coincides rather nicely and conveniently with the XD period; hence my preference to trade rather than invest. I will take a position in VOD during the XD period. If I'm very lucky I'll get that 143p - doesn't matter; but all previous opinions of sub 140p I now herewith take off the table.

Just to get back to the all time high of the other month (August) will take just under a near 50% rise from here.

- What odds on achieving that, would one of Kenny's betting sites offer me?

I'm thinking yes. Expecting a good SP performance in December.

LOL! I already have the Premium bonds - cheeky bugger :)

" No disrespect, but don't you think you over analyse sometimes????? "

LOL. Yes, very much so! Spot on. I can end up suffering from analysis-paralysis.

But I'm pleased you diagnosed it as over analysing rather than over-thinking - as it sounds the better disease :)

"...The share price started falling at circa 1pm because that was when Lumentum issued their RNS..."

Plausable. Very. But did you happen to read of any posters on here stating they'd sold because Lumentum had issued an RNS? (I haven't checked all previous posts so don't know).

Or if none on here on this paticular board, did you see or read anywhere else of investors actually upping sticks and moving out of IQE and selling up betwenn 1:00pm and 2:45pm only? Who then cited Lumentum's RNS as the reason for selling?

TL - And don't forget to include little or no debt as an added attractiveness.

In IQE's case it's the reverse of no debt - it's in surplus!

Missed 143p?
You could buy now and book the divi before the window on that, closes next Friday. But with that being the end of next week you could be thinking - Nah, I'll wait and pick it up cheaper after XD day - any time in the period after.

As XD period officially lasts until payday on Feb 1st that could be fun and games all the way to choose from.

November has proved again to be a fair crack for some performance from the SP, so maybe that could mean the price could be even higher by next Friday?

December and if The Santa Rally turns up you could pay even more, so risky?

And then the first 3 months of the year are a bit hit and miss in recent years. So you could string it out picking off the odd cheap top-up all the way to payment day on Feb 1st next year.

- Or this could be the actual end of the retrace that's been in force all year, in which case, now is the time to buy.

Decisions, decisions, eh?

Tsk! Tsk! No - Monday 12th November of course!

Think I'll have a rest now.