Member Info for Velo

Interesting thought Longish. Checked out your figures and agree.

Hmmm... Could tonight's close then, be the floor or v close to the floor? Particularily if Tuesday holds nothing undesireable in the trading update?

I've counted only 3 other days where the SP closed near this low, with this being the lowest close so far, but not the lowest intraday tail - as Oct 26th holds that @ 142.60p - but that was just an intraday, none have closed this low. Using memory now, too tired to actually go check.

But Hmm.... and on that thought -

Time for me to turn in Zzzzzzzzzzz.............

Next Tuesday H1 Revenue = €22.4225bn

Tsk! Yes, I know you're checking. Typo - should have read €22.425bn

Earnings:

Thanks to poster Magnification who this morning linked to this quote: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/new-strong-sell-stocks-for-november-8th-cm1052434

What a depressing header they have VOD under: "Strong sells for November". Yuk! When does the good news start? (Well, have something up my sleeve on that score maybe post about it sometime this weekend if I get the time :)

This is the pertinent bit:

" Vodafone Group Plc is involved in telecommunication services. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has been revised 1.6% downward over the last 30 days. "

That's the first I've seen of a downgrade amongst market expectations for the earnings in next Tuesday's update.

Hmm, so, earnings, do you have a figure in mind - or just going to suck it and see and take what comes on the day with no expectations either way?
Let's have a bash at working out some market expectations and see if on the day the SP moves in the appropriate direction based on what we can come up with in this little exercise.

First off, I'm concerned with that forecast of a 1.6% downgrade. Was expecting some on here would have posted of changes in the market's expectations of earnings from VOD. Could this be the forerunner of the very thing that many have been wondering, namely just what the hell is driving the SP relentlessly southwards?

Has it been downgrades in earnings expectations by the market that's been responsible for the declining SP?

Here's what the market consensus is for the full year (don't have their half year estimates). The two H1 & H2 dates don't seem to be cyclical looking back over the years so rightly or wrongly just going to cut in half, the full year estimates.

Full year Revenue estimate = €44.85 bn (3.7% decrease on last year)
Full year net profit estimate = €2.682bn (9.9% INCREASE on last year)

========================
.

So.... for next Tuesday that means the market must be looking for -

Next Tuesday H1 Revenue = €22.4225bn
Next Tuesday H1 Net Profit = €1.341bn

So come in above the revenue of €22.4bn and you'd be right to expect the SP to start singing?

And

come in with net profit in excess of €1.34bn and similar singing, yes?

Or just come in on budget should be enough to please the market with no unwelcome nasty suprises?

If the new CEO is secretive then he might only talk about percentages, in that case take note of the two key percentages of market estimates of revenue being acceptable at no worse than down x3.7% against last year.

- and net profit being acceptable if no less than a 9.9% Increase!

Conversely come in seriously less and ....... well you're allowed to come in just a little bit less - whatever, those are the two H1's key lookouts on Tuesday.

Your view may differ. Just back of a fag paper figures by me in the absence of what the market is looking for in H1 results, as only full year estimates available.

"The market would have to break through significant resistance to hit 124p, especially if the dividend is maintained."

- Yes a lot. Hence my musings further below of possible entry points - all of them support points - IMO - and all of them above 124p.

As for 124p I take a "I don't rule anything out, nor anything in" approach until I see it with my own eyes. Back in the height of summer I carried out that P/E comaparative valuation exercise (as mentioned in my post below) and posted the findings here.

Not many will remember I suppose, but I posted back then of 148p approx being "fair value". It triggerred I think in early October and I remember just a few weeks ago posting of my opinion that I felt the then current SP represented fair value and therefore any retrace further could be considered bargain territory. It then went on a slight bull run back over into the 150's.

Back then I felt a 'bit stupid' posting of 148p being 'fair value'.

But it came up.

Now I feel 'stupid' for posting 124p after a recalculation of that same exercise - as I was expecting to see "a bargain" come up at this lower 143/144's area etc., but things have changed to VOD's peers and the general market too - the goal posts have been moved, and bugger me! Had to check and recheck, so sheepishly I posted of 124p as fair vaue when comparing to induistry medians - not what the market will pay for Vod - but a theoretical comparison if the market's true intention was to strip VOD of its premium rating.

Currently that premium rating is still in place IMO - doesn't feel like it to those who bought higher, but the market is still allowing VOD to be ranked higher than all averages for both industry peers and the general market.

Let's hope I remain feeling 'stupid' should this area be the floor and it retraces no further - but yes there is significant resistance to break through just to get to 124p. Seriously significant support! - No question.

Hence my musing of possible entry points - all bar one well above 124p.

Fleccy, the market still awards a premium rating to VOD acknowledging that it should be viewed differently to others
- the P/E ratio is still head and shoulders above its peers and the general market.

For VOD to just be downgraded to merely level with its industry peers it would have to fall a helluva long way down to achieve that. (124p area IMO).

So despite all the disquiet over the huge SP fall this year - VODA still sports a P/E ratio head and shoulders above all median averages. Something I suppose.

Don't know Pacey - the actual news media report is dated as released at 2:05pm today, and the questions your mates were musing over all seem to fit with the news item today. You'd be more on the ball on this, than I.

Tsk! I can spel -I just type too fast!

"I ask the question - is the market merely re-ratring VOD down to leel with it's peers; and thus stripping VOD of its premium rating?"

Replace "re-ratring" with re-rating - and "leel" with level and Bob's your uncle.
Oh and " it's" with its.

- ( My keyboard can't keep up with my fingers - well that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it:).

Here you are MRD - Yes I've taken your advice and checked. I stand by my figures. But I can see your point. Just look at how the market has brought down the P/E of VOD from the beginning of this year to tonight's P/E15.4

Jan 2018 VOD was sporting a forward P/E ratio of P/E 26.0 !!!

April 2018 VOD was down to forward P/E 21.2

August 2018 VOD was down further to foward P/E 18.4

And tonight VOD is down to a forward P/E of 15.4

So in a way Mrd you are right - but only for back in the day - just look around the dead bodies on the battlfield - it's all changed - nothing but decrease, decrease, all year for VOD. It HAS to stop sometime. And that's the game - finding the floor.

I ask the question - is the market merely re-ratring VOD down to leel with it's peers; and thus stripping VOD of its premium rating?

Tonight

Mrd - are those figures 'snapshots' and historic ie., backward looking, taken from say back in August etc.etc., ?

(Pretty sure VOD was in the forward P/E 20's or v high teens if not, back then) but don't quote me - although I can find out in a jiffy, if important to you).

I use latest data, updated daily, to obtain 'forward' ratios based on data-feeds derived from Reuters (expensive subscription).

This worldwide market correction has generally lowered the P/E's across the board here in the UK. I'm used to seeing the UK markets as P/E 13 or 14. So was surprised to find it had dropped to P/E 12.odd after this big correction. My portfolios have still not yet fully recovered. Some shares are a bit hit and miss.. Some up but not enough to offset the recent correction.

"I wish I hadn't asked. Try a 3 page essay next time!!"

- LOL! Tsk! The Twitter generation - what the hell has it done to their powers of coincentration?

Not the first time there's been squaling of OMG! over the length of some of my posts with "you want me to read more than 3 sentences - in one go - all on the same day?!?

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Thanks Mdd1 - bare in mind P/E ratio is only one of another 8 methods you can use to value a company. I could list them up if you wanted - but the Twitter generation posters would complain :)

I've no time for the other methods as they're all over the place from 0p to 227p. So your hope of a bounce is 100% as good as any of the other 8 (9 if you include my metod :)

Miketh68 - Correct - never take an anonymous posters bletherings as something you should ever take as a trigger to act - except to test your own perceptions against. Once the Tuesday update is known - everything might /might not change. No one knows. If earnings are substantially different to market expectations then my 2-page post becomes obsolete.

PS. (I'm going to look at/ a brief post on earnings later on tonight) will try and accomodate the Twitter generation's sensitivities LOL! (Dear god; a two page post and some out there are mentally exhausted) Would love to see such persons tweet-length analysis of VOD :)

Anyway, back to the reason I came here to post. Just a simple one liner, that's all -

- What a luvverrlly juberrly nice close of the SP to finish the week on. Very Nice finish. :)

Here it is (SKY again! By gum they're on BT's case 24/7!)

https://news.sky.com/story/bt-rings-changes-with-200m-sale-of-fleet-division-11549085

If it doesn't open Google:

BT RINGS CHANGES WITH £200 MILLION SALE OF FLEET DIVISION - SKY NEWS

Yes, will try and find the link - it was on my phone earlier - it's the entire feet of 33,000 vans thart's been AGREED to be sold off - (tell them not to panic BT have issued a statement as the media thought that meant OR was next) that as good as says - The only way a competitor will take Openreach from BT is from my cold dead hands!

Now coming off here and back to phone to try find. Was halfway to posting it on here as it coincidied with a nice rise in the SP - but got sidetracked. Back in a bit.

(Concludes)..........

- To better measure VOD it's best to compare to it's industry peers. And here again as of tonight VOD is still rated well above it's peers. This is mainly due as said to the battering the UK markets have taken recently, so it could all change if there's a good recovery to come (ie., Santa rally???)

In essence in a direct comparison to the industry median, which in itself is already rated with greater prospects than the whole of the UK market in general, I calculate that a fair price for VOD just to bring VOD into line with the P/E ratio of it's peers (pre-supposing that's what market is doing in this SP year to date collapse is all about) is approx 124p (which is ominously as near as damn it, right on the last support I see of 125p!) So even in the low 120's VOD is not under-valued but - in line with it's peers.

Which is it? Is VOD worth more than the others, or similar to?

So my view currently is - VOD is still over valued in P/E terms to the average, and can only be considered fairly valued at the 124p area. That's if you think the market is engaged in re-rating VOD downwards to come down into line with its peers.

So if the SP never goes there, then you can be sure that at the end of the day, the market still values VOD above its peers.

But if it goes there and sticks? - then it's not the end of the world as far as the market is concerned - IF that's what it's game is!

I've now put on hold, my limit buy-orders until I can see what's-what next Tuesday.
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Interesting post earlier today by someone with a link to earnings - so will comment on that later on, as a 'handle' to use against earnings comparisons for next Tuesday.

At the risk of repeating myself and becoming an old bore: I repeat once again, this whole support area of 140-ish to 150-ish has not yet failed to cease supporting the SP! It's still actively doing it's job.

I can see from today's posts there's still a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth; so it's easier for me to accept this current SP range than those hoisted on an SP buy-in point high above the current SP.

That said, even at this price VOD is still not undervalued- when compared to it's peers. (IMO)

I posted recently, before the recent worldwide market correction got well underway that I believed VOD was now in the vicinity of near "fair value" and that the market was possibly re-rating the premium rating downward for VOD to that of plain vanilla bog standard average for it's sector. Well, I've done an update after the worst of this correction appears to have abated for the moment, and just given myself a bad fright. I'll come back to that in a moment.

But first, been attempting to formulate some part-tranche buy-in points for myself, to act upon in the depths of the XD period, should next Tuesday's update fail to impress the market.

And I'd chosen pretty much what I've posted of recently and that is, setting computerised buy-limit-orders at 137/133-131/and a cheeky 125p (should the worst come to the worst). I've got no indications of any description that there's even a hint of a break in this down trend, bar this support area STILL holding out, still working, and still active! For all any of us know this area could be the floor - who knows?

Anyway, moving on - and back to that fright I gave myself. A lot of damage has been done to both the UK markets median P/E ratio's and VOD's industry group. So despite the recent decreasing fall in VOD's high premium rated P/E ratio, the rest of the UK market has still not fully recovered from the recent worldwide battering correction - and their P/E ratios are now much down from when I last attempted an evaluation of where VOD stood in comparison to both its industry peers and the wider UK market as a whole.

And unfortunately it doesn't make for good reading. Please don't think what I'm posting next is my opinion of the future price of VOD - it's merely one private investor's opinion amongst the many thousands of its COPARATIVE VALUE. Here's my data method for the current position as of tonight's close:

VOD's forward P/E ratio is P/E 15.4
The forward industry median is P/E 13.3
The forward UK entire market median is P/E 12.5

Straight away you can see that STILL, VOD is rated far higher in future potential than all other shares in the UK indices - AS A MEDIAN average guidance figure.

To better measure VOD it's best to compare to it's industry peers. And here again, as of tonight VOD is still rated well above it's peers. This is mainly due as said to the battering the UK markets have taken recently, so it could all change if there's a good recovery to come (ie., Santa rally??

Erratum:

Inadvertently mixed dates and desired action. This bit:

"Divi payment might be in area of circa 4.5p so need to be closing on Monday night (before the trading update) well up in the higher 140's but prefrrably 150 for safety, to give a fighting chance of not spending XD period below 140's."

Didn't mean by Monday, but by the night before XD day which might be approx Nov 24th-ish.
As that's near the end of this month and next week's t/update may/may not affect sentiment, I meant to say:

- Divi payment might be in area of circa 4.5p so need to be closing on the night before XD day (24th?) well up from here, preferrably 150 or higher for safety, to give a fighting chance of not spending XD period below 140's.

Crusoe - Both the XD and payment dates will be published next week (Nov 13th) in the trading update. On past history XD day is likely to be late November (24th-ish?) and the payment day next February (usually early - 2nd or 3rd). Divi payment might be in area of circa 4.5p so need to be closing on Monday night (before the trading update) well up in the higher 140's but prefrrably 150 for safety, to give a fighting chance of not spending XD period below 140's.

I'd gone last night by that time LC.
But I think you're wandering there a bit - February?

1) Vod peaked at the end of the first week in January this year - not February. It was already retracing noticebly after that first week in January, so not sure why you're referencing Februrary.

2) No, I didn't short it, as I don't think I was even aware of VOD retracing then. I was busy on other concerns. Been in and out of VOD twice over recent years, so it was relegated to a permanent watchlist stock.

3) Novemeber? As all trend lines on VOD are still, downtrending, I'm looking for a breech in the dam wall for a possible break to the upside. None are presently visible to me, so the truth is, the SP is caught in a downtrend, but, those trendlines are narrowing quite fast. To call it's next move is a prediction, and I'm a trend follower, I wait, I follow when it's 'safe' or safer'.

However should you get your wish, I'm of the opinion you could get get hung up on 237-ish down to 231/233 area Supports, Fibbo's all converging for one mass junction. Beautiful area of uber strength. If the SP ever gets past the 130's then 125-ish is the last meaniungful support and if that goes I'm done and will just sit things out.

I'll be in shock if this goes down past that 130's area. It's the last Fibbo + with natural supports at a penny or so away nearby If thete's an almighty fightback by VOD - it would be from that 230/237-ish area. It's all so close to 240/250 supports I'm not sure which could 'do it'.

I personally, in my own amatuer way, don't think the SP is going to dive like a submarine from here - too much support and Fibbo's all converging. That's where you'll get nailed if 240's give way. I still don't know what to expect for November - I'll let the trend inform me, not second guess it.

Not keen on the new CEO, I don't rate him. Think he's a cry-baby wuss not a leader of men, so I have a somewhat schizophrenic view on VOD. A lot of quality ratio metrics in the balance sheet and a big nasty. Think I'm almost through with the big nasty, and if so, there's such good metrics that are being overlooked it probably only leaves debt as a worry. (Might get time to post a piece on those metric/ratio goodies).You're not a propa FTSE company unless you have debt worries, are you? LOL!

" Cant you SEE it????

I came here last night....

first time in weeks.....

opened 144 next morning.....

not putting it together yet????

the LC has it all mapped out....."

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I also came on here late last night and ha! Waddya know? It closed up blue 1.09% today!
- Only one logical conclusion to be drawn - obviously I'm Kryptonite to your bearish prices :) :) :)

"...- usually in an incoherent manner - as though the latter were laws of nature. If the aforementioned were able to post sensibly and gave some logical reasoning behind their assertions, then I might be take them more seriously..."

TL - He does on other forums other than LSE (where he still wears the Last Call moniker) he's lucid and coherent on those. It's just this one (VOD) that he sounds different. Here's a sample of him posting about VOD (I've cut bits out to fit in one page (capitals are mine for effect) :

" I’ve been in this game a long time.... And I’ve been in the heart of it. Not now though.
In past years, we had funds with the same mentality. Buy, hold, see out the flux etc. And it aided us mere mortals with same.

BUT NOW IT'S ALL ABOUT VOLATILITY. A stock slowly grinding up is of little interest to them now. They are judged by the month, rather than defined by the long term career. Your ‘trading life’ expectancy in the city is very short. You have to make the money fast before your out. And they can’t wait years. Better to shock n awe any stock. Apple I’m sure will feel it one day too.

And if they can drive a company share price down 90% (simply by having no interest), they will make 100% in three months on it down the road. Good deal right?

Just a different game now. THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNED TO STOP THESE HIGH DIV YIELDERS HOLDING UP CAPITAL FOR YEARS. It’s not at the fire yet but they are working on it.

It’s not hard work for them. Just don’t buy any. THEN AT SOME STAGE, THEY WILL BE AS VOLATILE AS ZERO YIELDERS. And traded normally.....But they’ll get it there one day."