Member Info for Velo

Error from first page:

"It opened on Tuesday morning the 12th November,"

Should have read :Monday 11th November, of course!

Continues....:

So, in effect the SP opened at 96p and fell to 80p by 4:20p That's a 16% fall before the RNS was made public! closed.

Only from 4:20pm did the company issue the profit warning, and the SP promptly crashed in the remaining 10 minutes down to close the day at 67p!

Which was a further 16% to the 16% drop that had already occurred hours earlier on "no news".

No news my Rrrss! This stinks to high heaven. Just who were those lucky, lucky, souls selling their shares en masse between 1:0pm to 2:45pm non-stop?

The full day's drop from the opening, to the close was circa 30% drop! Yet effectively 16% of that drop escaped with their money intact BEFORE the 4:20pm RNS!

Could it be, friends, family and relatives of the BOD? Or suppliers? Brokers? Who were those sellers?
WHO KNEW BEFORE INVESTORS? WHO TOLD THEM TO SELL?

Whatever, leaving the RNS to morning was now out of the question - as questions of the BOD would be asked
- so the crazy time of 10 minutes before close was panic rushed through to hide the insiders selling in the hours beforehand.

Hence the follow-up RNS this morning as in the panic they 'forgot' the details - as at 4:20pm it was all panic.

The word went out at 1;00pm on the dot and by 2:45pm they were all done and dusted- and away in the clear.

Fraud. Corruption. Call it what you will, but if not, at the very least investors got shafted! It was ever thus.

.... a PROFIT-WARNING-HIT SHARE!

- As Joanna Lumley might not say.

-------------------------

It's unacceptable and bordering on the fraudulent that any company should give only 10 minutes warning left of a trading day before announcing a profit warning!

99% of IQE investors, I'll warrant, would have not seen the warning until after close that evening or even not until this morning. I hope the authorities investigate. A level playing field means that convention dictates such warnings should be announced outside trading hours so that no one person or group gains financial advantage over other investors unfairly.

Never seen a profit warning issued at such a ridiculous time (4:20pm) - ever!
It's traditional to announce these things before the market opens in the morning so that investors have the full day, to evaluate and consider what options to take or immediate action. That was denied them. Unforgiveable!

So, what's going on?
Only that your BOD has shafted you, to protect itself from legal proceedings of leaking insider information to privileged parties. I intend to provide evidence that reveals the intraday price action on the day, was leaked before hand!

If you don't have access to such facilities, use your memory if you were monitoring the price on the day, or just follow my recount taken from my screen reproduced from yesterday's events leading up to 4:20pm.

Monday commenced to all intents and purposes as normally as can be expected. It opened on Tuesday morning the 12th November, officer :) at approx just a smidgen under 96p which was a near continuation from the previous day's close of just over 94p.
So far, so good.
All morning up until 1:00pm the price had remained relatively stable , just with the slight reduction in the SP down from that near 96p to 92p, nothing unusual.

Then promptly on 1:00pm sharp almost as if reflecting some urgent board meeting had concluded for lunch the SP gathered pace and instantly dropped to just under 89p. Again nothing unusual there.

But it is from that EXACT point on namely, 1:00pm precisely that events started unfolding dramatically. The SP continued to drop without let-up continually , penny by penny under the weight of sustained selling, until finally at 2:45pm it came to rest at 79p. Now that was dramatic. With no RNS to hand, unsuspecting investors took advantage and started buying cautiously, the SP barely moved but enough buying kept it from falling and actually raising it to the right side of 80p by 4:20pm!

So to recap so far:

The SP opened @ almost 96p

By 1:00pm it had sauntered harmlessly down to 92p

FROM 1:00p to 2:45pm it dramatically escalated the fall from 92p right down to 79p

From 2:45pm to 4:20PM the fall appeared to have levelled off to 80p by 4:20pm

So, in effect the SP opened at 96p and fell to 80p by 4:20p That's a 16% fall before the RNS was even made public!

Only from 4:20pm did the company issue the profit warning (continues....

Whoa there Qd22 @ "with the pe down into the low 30's."

A reasoned post, but take no notice of LSE historic rendition of the P/E ratio up above - it's historic, backward looking and the stockmarket prices in the future, not the past.

So why use LSE's version of the past P/E to determine the future potential of prce to earnings?

After last night's collapse the forward P/E ratio is now down to P/E13.6 which is actually below the industry median!

I am seriously knocked for six by the 7.8bn loss when I felt sure a 1.3 bn profit was marked down as the expected result. Yes I've seen the reasons why, but still the full year is for a 9.9% INCREASE in net profit on last year. Will have to see what tomorrow's estimates come in at now.

So today's flying price? Has to be the perception that the company has a handle on the future?

Therefore if anyone comes across early analysts reviews of VOD I'd appreciate a link or copy/paste here. I take no notice of analysts buy/sell recommendations but their analysis of contract wins etc., are v useful.

In this case I want to know what the market consensus is on the price reaction, as it sure as he'll isn't based on the trading figures itself IMO.

The CEO did talk of performing well. Can't see it. So need help.

Hee hee. That made me laugh. Don't attempt to repeating it quickly three times though :)

8%+ rise so far, in one day? For a FTSE100 stock?!? Nah can't be, I must have wandered on to one of the AIM forums :)

That's the big question H-hi. Will it hold and build, or is it just sideline investors jumping in for the divi alone, on the back of the trading update, and then depart soon after the SP comes out of XD period?

Every right to regard it as a genuine rise though, as a Gap-up is a sign of pent-up demand, and the SP usually builds in the same direction in the following days.
The downside to that, is the saying "Every gap must be filled". So would expect to see a future temporary retrace to revisit last week's vicinity in the XD period (based on tonight's close).

Which would be very handy indeed in disposing neatly of the 'gaps must be filled' mantra, as a retrace in XD period should not cause alarm.

That was Herculean to jump past all that resistance in one humungous Gap-up. The largest gap-up seen this year (or the only gap-up seen this year? :)

(One of my mad, ultra short term trends has already crossed to the upside. But it is a volatile little bugger so only use it as a head's-up alert, not a decision maker).

Right. Leaving it for now. Over to the market.

If the 7.8bn loss is right then must be something cyclical between H1 and H2 occurring that I'm unaware of. Helluva way to go then just to come in with stated year-end net profit increase. ee what the new market estimates will be in 24 hours then.

If unchanged from what estimates I'm looking at then can only mean, there's some cycliality to the 2 reporting periods and that it's all loaded into the second half?

Saw that, but disowned it. Can't be right. That's not the NET loss, surely?

Can anyone see the Net profit anywhere? Why is Read hiding it? Not a good sign. BT gave there's at the H1 recently.

Shout out if you see the net PROFIT (said net loss earlier below in error) - should be UP at circa €1.3bn or point.2, something profit.

That holding of the interim divi to same as last year and no increase is a step-down from the \BOD's stated policy. So is that a nod to the market, that they're listening to critiscisms?

Could be interpreted positively by the market as some sort of action.

Some move towards debt acknowledgement might go down well if revenue/loss insufficient to inspire.

I like that divi is held same-as and have foregone the usual increase. Should go some way to pleasing all sides.

Back of a packet of fags calcs, this is what I believe the market was estimating -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forecast est Revenue = x 3.7% down €22.425bn . . = ACTUAL IS WORSE @ x5.5%....€21.796bn FAIL

Forecast est Net Profit = 9.9% up €1.341bn . . . . . .= ACTUAL IS ? %.......€. ? bn (PASS/FAIL?)

.
Still searching for net loss. But on revenue I'd say, initially my first thoughts were -. worse than estimates so likely SP might not respond well? However, not yet satisfied I have the cyclical H1 for last year correct yet - I merely took 50% of l/year's, so a bit rough on my part. Bloomberg happy with in-line for revenue. So, will see when mkt opens

One thing though - net debt is €32bn which is what I was looking at yesterday - and that ADVFN figure of double that was clearly for some other method of calculation that gave me a fright yesterday was way out. So happy with my sources for data. Not with AFVFN's though.

Back to searching for the net loss

Thanks for sharing Longish. It's just that, in that interview, he's off to a bad start in my eyes. Needed another opinion to counterbalance that.

"..So revenue up would blow us out of the water. lol. Like hell that is happening..."

Yes,of course. But better than forecasts of x 3.7% down, could mean just a mere x3.6% down - and not x3.7% down as the market is expecting.

Conversley what would the market think if revenue is even worse at x3.8% down instead of x3.7% down?

I dunno, maybe 0.1% difference either way, is accepted as in-line?

It's a pretty tall order to ask a company for guidance then haul them over the coals at results time for a mere 0.1% difference, yet 0.1% to the upside could seep through and affect sentiment, maybe, maybe not?

In line, is the most preferred option at ths stage. Anything too far from estimates, either good or bad, would only engender distrust in VOD.

Think such a tiny, tiny, move is within the parameters of calling the result as in-line.

I'm just absolutely just NOT expecting anything more or less than smaller or greater than allowing for a tiny 0.1% move in either direction.
There would have been a guidance update otherwise, so in line is my expectation. Scotch waking up to any wonderful surprises - or nightmares. In line is the target to aim for. In line.

Yep that's my back of a packet of fags x3.7% down target to beat. Strange things happen though. I've seen revenue/net profit be down, only a little on forecasts yet still be welcomed by the market because of sentiment. No matter what you think before 8:00am - the market can still turn you round, and spin you back to front.

My concern is sentiment is bearish towards VOD so it's sitting with its arms folded with a miserable face, not expecting bullish surprises.

Best just to hope to come in "in line" with company guidance. No better, no worse. That would be a positive in itself right there, "In line" with estimates.

Yes, quite so.

It's all about how much better/worse the actual figures are to the market estimates, not the fact that revenue was long ago forecast to be down. That of course is already built into the price.

So revenue will still be down on last year, but by some chance if nowhere near as far down as market estimates, and you can imagine how the market would react - despite revenue being down against last year.

Ha! You're doing well if you can get an accurate handle on just 3 metrics before 8:00am Mrd

- I'm going for just 2. Revenue and net profit.

Already typed out and saved a little pass/fail box next to to the market forecasts to slot the actuals in to and then compare, thus cutting down on typing time - leaving more minutes free for thinking time LOL!

ie.,

Forecast expectations Revenue = x 3.7% down €22.425bn . . . = ACTUAL IS x % € bn PASS/FAIL

Forecast expectations Net Profit = 9.9% up €1.341bn . . . . . . . = ACTUAL IS % € bn PASS/FAIL