Member Info for Velo

I'm liking the the herd like despondency in posts on here. The herd always gets it wrong. Aka Warren Buffetts fear and greed. Think I'm on safe ground saying most posters are now wise after the event and displaying this is the end of the world mindset.

The collective decision on forums is ALWAYS wrong. Collectively, no upside can be seen. If this does temporarily cease falling and rises a decent amount I'm betting the consensus will change to yipppe here-we-go here-we-go....

If we all agree on where a share is going next - that's all of us on here, then like it or not we become the herd. I too think the long term (LONG TERM) trend is for more heartache so that makes me part of the herd too :)

All one can do is fight it in a spirit of self improvement.

PS. Often after a decent lift away after exiting Oversold, a share can revert to "slowly" retracing and often exceed the previous old low.

I then get people saying bah humbug smoke and mirrors hocus pocus rubbish, you got it wrong it doesn't work, it's all cobblers.

But the next retrace is doing so in an "orderly fashion" not retracing like mad helter skelter. And that's the difference. It's extreme selling at the moment. Extreme. That will end as they always do.

But no promises that it won't eventually 'drift' lower again - longer term.

However, I'm talking short term. Could be wrong with in 'a week', could be a couple of weeks. We'll see soon enough :)

Quite so Jack. People often think when I sometimes highlight oversold/overbought conditions that, that's it, it'll now reverse trend or at least stop retracing - and make the entirely human rationale that if it's going to reverse the current position then it will slow down and stabalise in readiness. Not a bit of it. It will continue in the old direction.

So until this oversold condition exits, there is no upside to the SP. What I am suggesting based on previous is - it looks like maybe a week more to go. If I didn't post that, I would internally quietly monitor such conditions without expectations of an end date and just wait until it indicates so.

Being oversold is as you know, extreme bearish sentiment and VOD is currently oversold. Have to monitor it until it clears. Then I expect a propa' lift away.

One has to wait until the SP is clear and out of oversold condition, first.

VOD without doubt, clearly confirmed on several fronts as increasingly oversold now. Condition similar in both VOD & BT.

But BT commenced entry into oversold territory twice as long ago as VOD. However I'm estimating maybe a week more before both mature and then a lift away somewhat from these new lows. Not a recovery but a lift out of 'orrible, "can't think straight" territory.

All only IMO of course.

But if a week more is incorrect just means a slower rise out of oversold condition. But it will do so. Whatever, not a great deal longer wait IMO. Past year and several years examples of oversold in VOD all reveal reasonable expectation to ending each oversold condition.

Repeat: Not a recovery, but a lift away soon, from here.
Sounds like a forecast I know, but in truth just another poster's opinion only.

Poker, don't know if you've caught a couple of documentaries on Huawei's "back door's" bulit into their products, but there is some evidence that causes concern.

On the finance channels tonight the presenters wailed that there's not one documented piece of proof to prove Huawei has or intends to, spy on us.

But I saw a BBC documentary where the Pakistani eneregy grid engineers raised their eyebrows.

They contracted Huawei to install the latest street lighting in their cities. When the Pakistani engineers were doing routine checks they found everyone of them fitted with an unwanted wifi connection. When the Pakistani authorities complained and ask what on earth were wifi units doing in their equipment Huawei reponded with "It's so our engineers can alert you to faults".

Pakisatan queried that and said they have their own engineers for that, so again what on earth are wifi units doing in street lighting equpiment?

The next day Huawei apologsed saying it was a misunderstanding and would remove them immediately. And that was that.

Have seen the Edward Snowden film where he reveals that the US, by friendly installing equipment in foreign countries, the CIA built 'back doors' into them, should that country become unfriendly towards the US the CIA could cripple that country's entire energy infrastucture and bring them to their knees. (Japan in that particular case).

Missed a lot of that documentary but caught a later bit where a high level engineer gave his experiences of dismantling Huawei equipment intended for use in the west and he said words to the effect -

"Huawei make some of the most, brilliant, advanced, high capability equpiment that is the finest in the world that you can only drop your jaw in awe" and then added " But we scratched our heads that in all the equipment we examined there was one piece of stone age, antiquated software/hardware that just didn't make sense. He said they had a meeting on this disparity and there was only one conclusion.

The antiquated device in the space-age equipment was placed there deliberately as an easy entry back door as if inserting out of date XP software with easy virus hacking alongside the latest Computer for one reason only - to aid easy hacking by persons unknoiwn.

Not a happy place to be tonight but things are slowing down. Slowing down but not reversing.

A penny a day now (so don't close on 203p tomorrow) with the strength of the 200 wall (ie.,199/201 range) exerting it's anti gravity force field against all boarders, hence the slow down. However, the ball is just inside the bears court.

Not sure if today is the SP's performance fault or not, as 5G just got seriously more expensive for everyone involved. More debt to get it out and available to everyone, for both BT and VOD. It's a fluid situation so can only keep checks on TV news bulletins etc., on the latest developments.

"but wouldnt VOD and BT etc already have agreed prices and order volumes some time ago?"

Wouldn't know, what with the Maybot only clearing Huawei a few weeks ago. Suppose it depends on any sneaky get-out-of-jail-free clauses in the contracts.

Thanks Poker.

Forgot to include that the US has in the last hour or so received a salvo from China ratcheting up more tarriffs against the US, in a tit for tat response, as well as the threatenng language of more to come.

I'll try and remb to watch the 10pm news, and catch up on the latest. I'm not that interested in the spat just the bit that 5G suddenly got dearer for all involved. That's the very last thing VOD or BT need, they're both in enough debt as it is, without more unplanned for debt piling on their shoulders.

As usual with Trump all could change in a heartbeat.

Hi Last Call / Mark Williams. It's you isn't, LC?

Thought I recognised a sentence in there that rang a bell, and true enough scrolled back to last year and of course all your posts are deleted, but as chance would have it, I had back then, requoted your questions to me, in my reply post in some late night banter. And they match. So welcome back.

If you manage to refrain from posting when you can't afford your fav poision substances, and don't slip up with 100 posts in 100 minutes, AND stay this side of behaved, you can probably escape being shut down again.

- If you do get sussed out and shut down, I'll only then post how I found out, to keep you from making repeatable mistakes. Don't worry, I'll keep shtum, and won't reveal any more. So, as you were, carry on.

Could be new v serious trouble heading Vod and BT's way.

Chip makers in the US are down across the board 6% so far today (they don't close until 9pm our time).

The TV presenters were asking a guest: Is this the start or is the fall now all priced-in?

The analyst expert wisely declined top be drawn on whether stock preices would continue to drop or not but made clear that as the chip makers could no longer supply Huawei from today, they would find difficulty finding new customers after losing the world's largest customer for 5G products.

He also said it would dramatically increase the cost of 5G as these chip makers were of such high standard very few could fill the gap for Huawei. So whatever VOD & BT budgeted for in 5G, after today the price to get 5G out there just spiralled higher.

Concerning.

IQE? Is it a chance for them to step up the plate with their wafers or is that the incorrect technology? They're not banned from supplying Huawei, are they?

Saw your post earlier Fleccy, and upon reading it I could HEAR myself quietly laughing, as you do when seated on your own, looping round and round: Hee-hee-hee-hee-hee, hee-hee-hee-hee-hee.....

Still smiling and (daren't say it - laughing :) Your post gets a green thumbs up from me.

Yes, you've seen right through my fake online ID.
How did you know I was a black female, transgender, transsexual, lesbian with psychotic issues of sociopathic and psychopathic behaviour, allied to my left wing beliefs and persistent Asperger's syndrome, that led my being medically diagnosed as an autistic savant?

Yes, that's right, I'll be knocking on your door soon, come the EU elections - as your local Labour candidate.

Hee hee, yeah. There are two words that should never be brought up in current forums for discussion.

The first is the 'B' word and the other is the 'T' word, as all considered judgement goes out the window.

Well I'm guilty this morning of introducing the 'T' word, so let's hope it doesn't develop any further but have to add -

- Just caught the opening taster in the 1pm BBC news and the presenter is still running with the sensationalist version in the main headlines - "Trump declares a national emergency in telecommunications".

Don't think he did. Think he made an emergency decision, which is a galaxy away from a national emergency, is it not?

I don't think today's initial SP drop into the 124 area nor BT's micro drop can be held against them.

- It's 'news' geo political events, impacting on telecoms industries and not their "fault".

Fisrt thing I saw this morning on my phone was "TRUMP DECLARES NATIONAL EMERGENCY IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS" lost the page but caught the second line that read and bans Huwaei from US telecommunications industry. I couldn't believe he'd issued a national emergency so googled and less sensational headlines told a more level headed account. TRUMP MAKES EMERGENCY DECISION TO BAN HUWAEI FROM PARTICIPATING IN US BUSINESSES.

But the noon BBC news went with the sensationalist approach and said TRUMP DECLARES NATIONAL EMERGENCY IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND BANS HUWAEI.

So the marginal impact on VOD and BT and telecoms in general is not due to their business fundamentals but more the future potential threat of coercian from Trump to bully other countries econmies into cancelling contracts with the Chinese firm and fall in line and use someone other than Huwaei, with his banning of Huwaei.

So IMO Telecom shares get a day off in taking the heat for their lacklustre SP's. It's the Trump news effect, not a continuation.

That's a nice bullish close to a 3 day pattern in indices in general in the US. Always complaints on here about the US when being down affecting here also.

Futures, as I post right now are mildly positive after hours. So might it be payback if the US continues upbeat tomorrow afternoon?

(Part 2)

......I had 12 month trailing figures on what to expect for the full year - and it showed a horrendous loss. I came near to revealing it the night before the results last week but thought the loss so ludicrous that I didn't dare mention it. It must be wrong. The figure I had was for a loss of £6.6b. As you now it was higher, worse than the figure I had.
£7b loss had been maintained. But all were kept in the dark about it, unless I missed an RNS warning. Read KNEW and said nowt. UNACCEPTABLE!

This current reaction to the results is nowhere near as bad as would be the case had it been any other company revealing a loss where the market was expecting a profit. I think the SP could have been punished much more severely, perhaps the market "Knew" and had after all built the terrible trading year into their valuation of the SP. There has been noi satisfactory explanation to the sevre drop in the SP 24 hours before the trading results were announced, but that's just a side issue.

So
1) Investors were kept in the dark about the loss heading their way at the mid year interims.

2) After promising that the interim was a one-off, come up with the exact same excuse for yet another unforeseen exceptional one-off cost and deliver the never to be seen again loss, into the full year accounts.

3) The poor behaviour for a former trained accountant, unable to forsee cutting the divi just months after promising it would be maintained - is unacceptable for a former accountant..

Far from bemoaning the drop in the SP I think you should all thank your lucky stars that it wasn't worse. I think you've all been fortunate.

If/ when I take a position on the trend reversing in VOD, it will be to trade the rrs of it - not invest in it. Not whilst the current CEO is in place, at least.

The lack of profit warnings!

Don't think you're going to like this piece but getting it off my chest.

(This might run to 2 pages)

Can anyone advise if I've missed any RNS profit warnings - (2 of them) from before the date of last year's interim results to just recently?

I ask because if not, it speaks volumes about the veracity and trustworthiness of the CEO in handling info that should be divulged to all shareholders equally via profit warnings. I've always witnessed profit warnings severely canned by the market so it's tempting to delay the pain. But pretty sure it contravenes financial regulatory conduct rules to issue guidance to the market that completely omits to warn that previous guidance has been adjusted to now expect lower net profits.

At the last interims, I had back of a cig packet revenue and earnings guidance figures to hand and clearly recall posting them on here saying that coming in above them should boost the SP and below would affect the SP badly.

Revenue was, more or less, in line with guidance - but I stared in disbelief at a loss instead of the expected profit with the results showing a £7b+loss.

I was sure the market would make the SP pay for that. Several on here happily repeated Read's solemn guidance that it was an unfortunate exceptional cost that was a one-off and wouldn't be repeated again. All seemed satisfied with that explanation on here. Never the less interim results tables displayed it as a loss at the half year of £7.9b after bits and bobs were accounted for.

But all swallowed the bumf that it was a one-off exceptional cost. I had no reason to disbelieve either. I metaphorically threw everything up in the air cursing myself for being unable to get my head round basic accounts and drifted away to other interests.

As the market then revealed it had been trouncing the SP on fears of a divi cut - and now here it had received a PROMISE that it would not be cut but maintained as is - the SP went apesh!t UP all the way, up to just before XD day and reached a ceiling of circa, was it the 170p's?

By that time, my turning my back on VOD I had missed out on a nice little profitable rally, so vowed to come back and open a position once it reached the depths of the XD period. But after reaching the depths it not only stayed there; but got worse. No matter I thought. It happens; pick it up after payment day when it should reverse trend when out of XD period entirely. Only it never did. It had dawned on me that once the divi had sunk in that it was safe, the actual small fact of a loss instead of a profit that had been slapped on the table - out of the blue - started to sink in, on the market and IMO added to the dropping SP..

I had 12 month trailing figures on what to expect for the full year - and it showed an horrendous loss. I came near to revealing it the night before the results last week but thought the loss so ludicrous that I didn't dare mention it. (Continues to part 2)....

Slightly dissapointing end to the day. The SP didn't have much to do at all, but it couldn't even be rrs'd to do that!

Concentration is focussed soley on Thursday not closing below 204p - or even on 204p. Visit it if you must, but get away from it by close.

Whatever the US indices are on course to finish a stonking day over there. Their last 3 days "look" to be setting up a very nice bullish pattern. So if 'over there' continues improving might its influence perchance spread over here?

No it doesn't function like that. It's net debt after various oddball deductions and additions.

- Let's assume you mean £30b higher and nothing to show for it? (In real life you'd have bought another Liberty deal surely?)

You racked up that additional debt paying and paying say dividends that weren't covered by earnings. So you have no assets or gained no acquisitions or whatever. You went out spent an additional £30b get home open your carrier bag
- and it's empty!

So you look in the mirror and say damn knew I should have gone easy downing those expensive Costa latte coffee's. How am I going to tell the wife I've spent all that on my credit card and have nothing to show for it?

Because it's NET debt that it calculates not gross debt. But anyway, if your example held true the EV would show up as less than the MCap of £34b.

And there are shares where the EV is lower than the MCap value.

But as said, I rarely pay it any attention. Because the SP is controlled by emotion or as posh people like to call it - market sentiment - Not the EV metric.

But offer a sheer robbery pittance to acquire VOD and things like NAV and EV values would be thrown in your face with a derisory taunt of:

Try again sunshine, but look in your wallet first, big boy.

Yes.

Here's the textbook explanation which is at least 10 pages shorter than would be mine :)

Enterprise Value (EV) represents Market Capitalization plus Net Debt, and is a truer reflection of the actual size of a company than Market Cap. More specifically Net Debt includes Total Debt, Minority Interest and Preferred Stock minus Cash and Short Term Investments.

This Enterprise Value is based on the latest available figures for Debt & Cash, i.e. interim figures if these have been published since the annuals.

PS.
The EV figure I have quoted is still not updated to incorporate the latest trading results. I can post them when that's done given time in next day or so. It's something I never usually refer to and never use as a decider in buying /selling. It's just background paper noise to add to total knowledge base in researching a share.

Error:

EV is 79%+ more than the current MCap and not 90% as I posted from my non-spilt coffee hand.
Still mega higher though.

But that's on paper and the market is the market and when sentiment rules does it take notice of paper evaluations?