Member Info for Velo

Q1 2019/20 here -
https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12019-20/BTconsensus280619.pdf

Increase your screen size, I'm using 200% just to see, as it's dense with data.

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The 28th June estimates are giving Revenue for Q1 as between £5.204bn (as the lowest acceptable to leave the SP unchanged) and up to £5.668bn maximum before they'll consider hailing BT as beating forecasts.

They give the mean and median as roughly £5.573bn and £5.605bn so should we say they're looking for an average of £5.589bn? And therefore no one need have kittens so long as revenue doesn't come in any lower than £5.204bn.

So they're expecting round about £5.5/£5.6bn in revenue.
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Q1 Net Profit: From a lowest of £337m up to £483m is the acceptable range. Mean and median are given as £417m / £424m so shall we agree, expected net profit to be in the region of £420m?

I've used net figures as investors don't need concern themselves with pre-tax profit. Divis are paid out of net profit. After taxes etc.,

It then gets confusing with the latest update dated July 26th (last Friday) I would use that but it's title is Q2 but strangely inside it states Q1. A typo by BT? Or are they really Q2 estimates (which seems unlikely).

Whatever, I'll finish here with saying I think the market will be expecting in the region of £5.5bn in revenue
and £420m in net profit
- with a wide margin of anything below £5.204bn revenue and £337m net profit, before long faces are pulled should the results come in less than the lower estimates.

Really confused by that Q2 update. Have to see how the market reacts then can jump to the Q2 figures to see if they are the true latest, but there's not much in it either way, so will go with the June 28th figures - the period that kicked off all the £1 SP talk.

Done!

Sorry about the last post, numbers all over the place. Shuld have dumped half of it in the interestr of easier reading.

Was keen to compare full years. Now, next will be what the title says, the Q1's released tomorrow morning. I WILL KEEP THAT CLEARER.

Rambled on a bit in previos post because I became intrigued by how significantly the analysts have adjusted their consensus from June 28th to July 26th. Unbelievable. You'd think hardly any changes ass you'd need actual interims, but they're adjusting estimates on top of estimates!

The July 26th update says Q2 in the title but when I open it it says Q1. Confusing. I'll plough on.

Q1 2019/20 here -
https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12019-20/BTconsensus280619.pdf

To recap: Since 2016, when the SP last peaked, BT's revenue from the following year, 2017, has done nothing but gently decline each and every year -
and -
since 2017 BT's net profit has done nothing but the opposite and gently increase, each and every year (savings from cost cutting?)

2016 Revenue= £18.879bn Net Profit= £2.466bn (EE integration /and the collapse ever since of the SP).
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2017 Revenue= £24.082bn Net Profit= £1.908bn
2018 Revenue= £23.476bn Net Profit= £2.032bn
2019 Revenue= £23.456bn Net Profit= £2.159bn
=======================================================

Then the analysts estimates came out for 2020 and 2021 and they continued the recent history of reducing revenue and increasing net profit, this is what I'm seeing on my sources -

2020 Revenue(Est)=£23.062bn Net Profit(Est)= £2.412bn
&
2021 Revenue(Est)=£23.014bn Net Profit(Est)= £2.514bn

I had some reduction month by month, so yes analysts had been downgrading, but I have nothing like it hit the media in late June. Time to look at BT's site and see what the minimum's, averages and high's are, as the estimates are all over the place.

Here's what the analysts' as a collective (click that link above now) were saying on June 28th for Revenue and net profit for this current year.

New Estimates 2020 Revenue (Highest estimate) = £23.233bn (This is higher than mine above)
New Estimates 2020 Revenue (Lowest estimate) = £22.487bn (This is lower than mine above)

So, clearly mine above is the "average". However, the new Median and Mean averages are given on BT's site as follows:

New Estimates 2020 Revenue (Median estimate) = £22.896bn
New Estimates 2020 Revenue (Mean estimate) = £22.909bn

Therefore according to BT, the analysts have downgraded revenue even further for 2020 (same story for 2021).
If correct, that's a disappointment to me, as my averages are way out of line.

Now net profit:

New Estimates 2020 Net Profit (Highest estimate) = £2.398bn (This is lower than mine above)
New Estimates 2020 Net Profit (Lowest estimate) = £1.748bn (This is lower than mine above)

Conclusion on full year: A disappointment as it shows Revenue worse than previous estimates and net profit instead of continuing to increase y-o-y actually falling. (Median's are uninspiring for net profit).

But hold on. Since those downgrades they've been at it again and if you click on the July26th (Q2) date the analysts have only gone and INCREASED revenue but not net profit. Revenue is now forecast to be more or less in line with my estimates taken from my subscription sites. Net Profit is still lower than my averages in 26th update.

That's it for full years. Now to the case in hand and the Q1

Right, it's the Q1 trading update tomorrow, Friday. How will we know whether the progress is good, bad, worse than expected, or better than expected?

Revenue and profits being up (or down) is not so straightforward; it's all about meeting, beating, or failing to meet, market estimates. It's about what the expectations are of the market. And that's a surprisingly small amount of persons, select broker's analysts. In BT's case that's about 15 analysts. (7 or 8 for Q1).

They decide if results are good or bad - not what the CEO's say in their statements.

In the normal course of events, investors get buffeted from pillar to post, believing a company is doing well only to see what they regard as fair results get slated in the media, and the SP falling; and it's in reading such analysis that investors will pick up on, that such and such has been "downgraded" /or "upgraded". The investor is left wondering why they weren't told beforehand. Often they'll see an odd broker making a lot of noise during the year, but dismiss it because they're only one broker amongst many.

Me? I pay hundreds per year in subscriptions for help on such matters, and a lot more besides.
So imagine my surprise when round about the end of June media reports suddenly and without warning started publishing that BT's results were due to go down the pan, that the gates of hell were opening, even suggestions that the SP will only be worth £1. Others followed - all citing that forecasts had been downgraded. This was not what I was seeing on my subscription packages. I know that often the data I get can be days or in some cases, weeks behind; but even so!

It's how I came to discover that BT had addressed this issue, like no other company I know of, and done a fantastic job of publishing on their site all the broker's analysts forecasts - updated regularly - for free!

In fact BT say on there -

" We publish the latest consensus EVERY TWO WEEKS throughout the year, incorporating the impact of new estimates received from analysts since the last publication. "

And that's what I'm highlighting here; All the analysts data you need to judge BT's results tomorrow, are on their site - now.

Either this site or my computer is slow today, so will post this and continue later in the day with the data.
Here's the Investor's link on BT -

https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/

Then scroll down & click 'Financial Reporting and News'.
And then scroll down yet again and click 'Latest Consensus'

Then from there scroll down and click Q1 2019/20 here -
https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Financialreportingandnews/Latestconsensus/Modules/Archive/Q12019-20/BTconsensus280619.pdf

Be careful on the last link, there are similar headings but each is different. Get the last easily accessible and I'll return in due course later. You'll need to increase your screen size, I'm using 200% just to see, as it's dense with data.

Yes, the SP gave a reasonable account of itself today. But it was after our markets had closed that's now concerning. There's a distinct possibility that all markets might be down tomorrow, Thursday.

US had it's first interest rate cut in 11 years and their markets did not respond at all well; they reacted the opposite to expectations, but it may all blow over by tomorrow for our markets; if not, should only be temporary. All based on they sneeze, and we catch a cold over here.

Avro - Have you overlooked a key event before your 8th Aug date, before reaching your conclusion?

The Q1 results are released this Friday! (Did do a pre-post heads-up on it, last weekend). The very first set of actual interim results - the truth in £££'s and pence of how BT has actually performed so far in this new financial year. All has been estimates until now. Guesswork no longer needed after Friday. Are you sure the results will be what the analysts and yourself predict they will likely be? The whole market awaits the outcome and will then firm its decision on the value/worth of the SP and it's likely direction. Then you can plot in your personal calendar dates etc., etc.,

Making a forward decision whilst ignoring actual data results to be released in 2 days time is madness. Wait until Friday. Then form your decision. I intend what I hope will be a not-to-lengthy post on the fantastic brand new resources on Bt's website and use them to help with guidance by Thursday latest. (Struggling with time just to post this).

Whatever, those new resources must make BT's website on the investor section one of the most helpful anywhere, by any company, anywhere in any market, anywhere in the world. A thank you email should be sent to BT. Never seen anything like it - ever. It's a resource to be used in helping investors decision making.

- I will be posting on it - and it's ramifications before Friday.

Hi Trendfriend,

JPMorgan, factoring in the towers, are going for well over £2 ultimately.

Some last minute thoughts:

JP Morgan have been quoted as saying they expect between 50% - 60% further increase in VOD's SP to reach full valuation.

Only thing is, it's all VOD's 61,000++ towers that are up for spinning-off.
There's some talk of only a minority stake sale, but then where does that 50-60% SP rise come from, then?

It's VOD's backbone, no wonder some pondered whether VOD was on the point of break-up and sell-off. The fact is, VOD's entire tens of thousands of towers are being shifted out of direct control to be controlled via shares held in a new company separate from Vodafone.

(As the towers are on the books now, does that mean a deduction will have to be factored in, when they leave VOD ownership and get handed over to the new set up?)

So, if only a minority stake is sold into the market, then questions need to be asked if the rise in the SP can be as high as JPMorgan is suggesting. I don't know.
Investors need much more info in the coming weeks to get a fuller grip on valuations and hence less gambling on what to expect with the SP.

That's it on trying to evaluate where the SP is going - just one price range from one analyst - and it's JPMorgan's 50-60% further rise, which I now question on lack of verifiable data.

Early days, no doubt other analysts will wade in with the ultimate re-rating to expect from the SP.

There's a little inconsistency in the figures reported for the new TowerCo company that's being planned for next year.
(Repeat: and that Tower company is the sole reason for the current SP rise - not the Q1 results as implied by the Telegraph).

Not unexpected as all media sources are running fast to get a grip on the new Tower facts and figures.

Have seen mostly €18m Euros touted as the valuation of that new venture,

Then £18m GBP in that link Fleccy highlighted

and only £10m valuation in the Telegraph article I was referring to in the previous post.

As said, It's not unexpected as until firm guidance is issued all sources will be stretched to be on the same page, but very roughly the consensus appears this weekend to be:

€18m Euros (approx £16m) valuation -

with anticipated profits of circa £800m per year.

So that's your ballpark figures for calculating how much meat is left on the bone in calculating this current SP rise. Any more up to date info on TowerCo valuations then please post as that will determine VOD's SP re-rating.

Which on the matter of the SP, I'll now post seperately on >>>

Saw something in the financial media today, that's outrageously untrue about Vodafone, that if I don't post about it at this late hour - then, that'll be it, until later this week for me, and it'll be forgotten.

A new Telegraph news item scrolled across my tablet after switching on about VOD earlier today. And it's a salutary reminder in questioning the veracity of the info the media impart. The SP is rising with sentiment strong and it's expected there's more to come, so anything in the media that's bullish will find a ready audience, yes?

Here's the offending para that alarmed me and will just add fuel to runaway unbridled sentiment if taken at face value (it's 100% INCORRECT):

"...The reversal came after Mr Read, in charge since October, reported BETTER THAN EXPECTED FIRST QUARTER RESULTS and said preparations for a potential spin off of 61,700 towers across 10 markets were accelerating. The new company could be valued at £10bn analysts said...."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/26/vodafone-climbs-mast-spin-off-plan/

Total nonsense about the Q1 results.
The revenue failed not only to achieve forecast estimates, but also failed to even match last year's first quarter. It came in less! A 100% miss. (And no mention of net profit at all!)

Think the Telegraph got carried away with N. Read saying service revenue was improving - everything he highlighted - everything was down! So the SP is NOT rising on results at all. Towers only, is the sole reason.

In fact whilst on the concern of falling revenue, those same media reports nearly all mention debt rising to €47bn after next week/month when the Liberty deal goes through.
Currently it's €26.3bn so €47bn makes it approx 10% greater than Friday's new higher market Cap valuation!!!

In other words, very soon Vod will be valued very much less than it's debt burden! That is seriously shocking, even though entirely expected. The Tower sale is going to be more than essential.

It's like selling your house, going to the estate agents to ask where the cheque is, only to be told you still owe us tens of thousands to close the sale! When all that debt physically, actually, sits on the books there can be no slip-up's, no unexpected leaves on the line, no excuses from now on - none before the 2020 tower spin-off.

It's the albatross around Vod's neck should anything untoward raise it's head over the exciting Tower proposals.

Have a couple of more differing points to raise, so might as well carry on in seperate posts.

Flying visit only, until next week.
- RU ready for the trading update on Friday?

Also, have you noticed a small, green-shoots like, uptrend in the SP all this week?

With a push it's looking after Friday's close, like it's setting up for a nice run all the way through next week up to 2nd Aug and the Q1 trading update release on Friday; only then might it be all-change for the SP - or not.

Good omens beforehand, I think. We'll see. It's an important day.

BT has collected all the analyst's damaging forecast metrics in accounts form on it's own site. Brill! I think BT have played a blinder there. From the bearish to the bullish. (Would appear they've been doing it for 6 months but I've only just noticed) Knock me over with a feather! Never seen any company do that before - ever! Love it!

And look at this for taking the bulls by the horns - BT said yesterday:

" We publish the latest consensus every two weeks throughout the year, incorporating the impact of new estimates received from analysts since the last publication."

Ace! The analysts last missives that destroyed the SP's mini recovery are now out of date - as of yesterday - BT have updated the latest, live as of, get this, dated: 26th July! (Although that's for Q2 onwards but there is stuff in there I want to use for Friday, despite the latest being less than pleasing).

At last, a chance to get a handle on the 15 analysts metrics forecasts before they go public wide, that go to make up the market's expectation for BT. It's been the tail wagging the dog up to now.

Need more time, but looking to post after completing an examination of them before next Friday's result. Stuck on personal chores just now. Have given up the battle for anything positive on Revenue, and Free Cash Flow has gone down the tubes (worrying) but still disagreeing on earnings - net profit. It's important, as it could turn the tide on Friday and firm-up and stop the decline in the SP, if actual net profit can 'delight' & defy the analysts.

Strange things happened with Vodofone's Q1 release on Friday. Revenue below forecasts and below last year's actuals
- but the SP flew!
Might be something in the air, you never know. Could BT benefit?

I may be incorrect in over estimating earnings, but will show workings why, to see if you disagree or even if you expect even worse still. I'm putting all my eggs in one basket to try and anticipate net profit beating forecasts as that's the only good thing that can come out of it; but overall, it's probably the worst expectations by market led analysts going into the Q1 update; hence the market's downbeat attack in advance, on driving the SP down to all time lows after it was looking like recovering somewhat.

Will include relevant links to follow my post sometime later next week, otherwise without referring to the analysts accounts, my post on its own, may end up looking like gibberish. (Will try and keep it all succinct and short - ( Try :)

" I was going to mention that Marubozu candlestick earlier as it wouldn't go amiss at Cape Canaveral."

- Ha ha! I did LOL! at that. Yes a right monster!

Yep, g'night - I must cease posting in general, and get back in my box as need to fish out some time for a BT post on Aug 2nd trading update.

At this rate I'm not going to make it, so a busy day tomorrow for me on chores and stuff; thank goodness it's a lot cooler already, so I have no excuses, as the markets closed also.

Danielh, thanks; keep me on my toes to prevent my posts sounding too gibberishy/anoraky as I pride myself in writing simply/ clearly.

I slipped up a bit there as I was replying to Longish who has expressed an interest in candlesticks. Normally I try and cut the crap out and just like everyone else say plainly - I think this could rise to - or fall back to, - without explaining why.

I've had the accusation of not being clear on many, many, an occasion elsewhere, so I've trained myself to cut most of it out, and just cut to the chase - except when I'm discussing fundamentals, people seem to love fundamental gibberish.

Oops almost forgot - did mention in an earlier post somewhere about checking up on volume - here it is:

If lower than average volume then dramatic SP movements can often be laid at the door of manipulators and you shouldn't base decisions on such movements
- and there are significant short hedge fund positions of just over 4% in VOD.

Consider:
The long term 50 day average volume is approx 89m
The long term 200 day average volume is approx 91m

So lets agree that 90m is the avegare longer term volume.
Then compare that to today's to draw a conclusion as to the veracity of the dramatic SP movement today.

90m? Today the volume was a staggering 204m !!!
That's institutional demand, that is!

The highest single day's volume this year to date!

It was not matched until you go back to May 2017 and not beaten again until further back in autumn 2014.

Then it was beaten several times in 2013.

As the largest volume this year, it does show the SP is unlikely to have ceased climbing on demand. The institutions may, might not play cute with the odd day down here and there, but overall they look like advancing next week.

Have an accumulation/distribution indicator that alledges to help detect dark pools operating behind the scenes (off-book). It too has shot up tonight.

This is real, serious intent volume. The institutions are coming. This was just the first day.

As some anoraks are fond of saying:
"Volume preceeds price".

Erratum: "Next up is the 39.2% level "

Typo! Meant 38.2% of course!
(Just in case any fellow anoraks out there, noticed :)

Hi Longish,

Had finished for the day, as still up to armpits in outstanding workloads; so quickly replying to your acknowledgement, and also wanted to lay some 'wild' thoughts down . . . .

----------------

Big mega white (blue on my screen) Marubozu candlestick close tonight. Bodes extremely well, but would have been much, much, better/stronger occurring not mid uptrend as of tonight's close for the weekend - but at the bottom of last week's downtrend.
Whatever, it is a mighty bugger though - just look at it. Combine that, with it being the first out the gate of a Gap-Up and it's almost certain that all next week would have to be seriously, seriously, unlucky for the SP not continue bullishly.

Also the SP has already commenced /and has been on bullish trend lines, since the 18th/19th of last week.

So:
1) A bullish Gap-Up this morning.
2) Closed as a mega sized bullish White Marubozu tonight (the king of the jungle!)
3) The trend had already started on a small uptrend late last week.

Enough confirmation to expect a bullish continuation all next week?

Potential bearish signals -

1) The sudden speed of the northwards SP has propelled it into a couple of overbought conditions. Nothing to be concerned about at this stage; could remain overbought for quite awhile yet (weeks even?/ month).

2) One either believes in Gap-Up's/Gap-Down's or not. Many "experts" pour cold water on believers like me.

(And I'm still waiting for a gap-down in early May, in BT to revisit back up there and close - but just as it rose to the starting gate, the negative broker revisions were let loose on the market, and down the SP retraced to where it is now. Aug 2nd I feel for sure might bring the retrace to an end, when Q1 results are announced
- Got a fair bit to say opinionwise on Q1 forecast earnings on the BT site only, when more free time).

Anyway as a 'believer' in Gap-Up's, the negative to today's Gap-Up is that the SP must revisit in the future to "close the gap".
So I feel no shame in saying that if anyone wishes they could turn the clock back and make that top-up in the low 130's of yesterday, then "I believe" that at some point in the future maybe, just maybe, they will be presented with such an opportunity. Might only be a brief visit and recommence upwards or continue past to bad old ways. It's a 'wild, wild,' personal belief not a forecast.

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Also, won't go into detail but the Fibbo 50% retracement level for VOD I have as 146p (reading taken from the crash of 2009 to the all-time high). And it's coincidentally, where tonight's SP came to rest. Coincidence? Of course.

Next up is the 39.2% level which is the lower 160's :) Not saying nuthin' cos that's a big leap :)

That's enough from me. No doubt Trendfriend might have some intermediate resistance levels to overcome before/if ever the 160's show up?

That's it - I'm done.

Well, well, well! Over 10%+ rise in one day flat - in a FTSE100 company! Who'd have thunk it?!? :)

I was so obsessed with Q1 revenue falling below last year's actual achieved Q1 revenue, never mind failing to meet market forecasts, and was observing to see when it would correct itself, I ignored SP rockets were leaving earth all around me.

I thought; Who in their right mind would believe a man who last November said 'no divi cuts whilst I'm in charge', only to go and do an about face 6 months later, and announce the divi will be cut after all?

So when he first babbled on about oh the revenue is down only because of the exchange rates - I thought bull! Excuses again! So when he then moved on about the Power of the Tower - I next thought - Bull again! That's Jam tomorrow to misdirect attention away from declining revenue (and possibly net profit too as he was too scared to reveal it).
[BT revealed both in their Q1 trading updates last year; anyway their turn up on stage on Aug 2nd with their Q1 results].

Pretty soon after soaking in my sweat bath of prejudices I wondered why the SP was continuing, to fire off skywards. Surely not because of the results - that was for definite.

Surely the market's not buying this Power of the Tower bull?
Yes they were; and it wasn't bull. Ol' Nick Read'y had caught some of us with our pants down - the basssa! :)

You had to tag along with Frodo Baggins and his Hobbit mates, the elves, dwarves and whatnot to The Tower where untold wealth awaited, as much gold as you could carry, only you had to start the journey to The Tower first. I didn't even get the significance of 'The Tower' - let alone get to the Tower. Instead, I was still mouthing, bull! And screaming: Show me the missing money, you fecka!

Who, forecast this would explode by 10%+ today, because of 'The Tower'? Huh? Eh? Who?

By the time I realised it was all about The Tower and not Frodo Read's falling revenue it was too late; I was the last Hobbit left in the shire. They were all off to 'The Tower'.

Thanks for that early link Fleccy (haven't seen any today so far) so if that report pans out ie., "...With profits of around €900 million (£800 million), TowerCo would be worth about as much as engineering giants Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems..." then today's almost double % SP increase so far, would more likely be attributued to not only genuine market buying sentiment, but also shorters elbowing in front of them with their Rrrses on fire to buy and close down their shorts.

If shorters are on the same wavelength as the data revealed in that report then I'd hazrd that they may be more than 50% of todays buying. (Meant to add below shorters were holding just over 4% of VOD's stock as of last night).

That's 4% of all shares need buying up ASAP by the shorters. That's like placing a bomb of rocket fuel under the SP.

(Concludes >

If it is Shorters then it would explain the SP being pushed that fast it is now into the foothills of relative strength overbought condition, same overbought condition in Keltner channels too. All in the blink of an eye because of that large Gap-up today.

Are you all buying generously today? Apparantly the market is, whether by shorters closing or if not, by doo-lally enthusiasm over a giant new tower in Europe.

PS. Net debt actually finished a little down after the three years of losses - courtesy of the strong Free Cash flow in that period; it's still strong but it's now needed for 5G et al; hence that divi cut announced in May.

I'd be interested in any opinions as the days progress over why the SP deserves to be this high or even higher - on decreasing revenue (and assuming same for net profit as they haven't mentioned it). If it is due to shorters closing, then this buoyancy seen today so far, I see commence fading perhaps, maybe from Aug 8th-ish approx, (or not) then just normal market conditions reasserting IMO.

So, also looking contrarily, to see the rap sheet showing shorters NOT reducing in the coming days - then it would be time to get all tower happy, and genuinely expect further SP increases. Strange day.

The Q1 revenue was not only less than market forecasts - it was worse than that - it was less than last year's Q1 actual revenue - LESS! (No hint of net profit so have to wait for mid years in Nov release). So, it was unexpected. A slight dissapointment. No one forecast a decrease. In other words - in the opposite direction to what the market expected.

And yet still the SP gapped-up strongly (so will be looking at volume etc., at day's end).

I just don't understand why. Great if you don't care and are doing a Buffett of "holding for ever" no matter what. But I just, gots to knows.

Is it because of the proposed largest tower in Europe? What, no one knew of such a proposal previously and that's why the SP has instantly gone on steroids? And doesn't that come under jam-tomorrow? Then again that motif is usually deployed against AIM tiddlers with yet to show a profit at all. ( However, right up into mid 2018, VOD's P/E ratio was double the industry median suggesting it was regarded as a premium growth stock and allowed some leeway in mediocre years).

So everyone agrees, the fall in the first quarter revenue is nothing - what everyone has been waiting for is a new Tower? (Thought it had been further developments in the Liberty deal that was on most investors minds; that and 5G).

Still don't understand it. The only thing that makes any sort of sense in this dramatic SP explosion today, is Carrington's 10:27am post - shorters buying to close out! Now that does make me . . . understand.

Consider: The results came out in May which is approx where 4 out of the current 5 funds, increased their short position in VOD. One on July 2nd, two in June, one in April with the other decreasing their short, a little, in May. So the consensus of 4 out of 5 hedge funds is they increased their shorts approx around the results release in May. Where did they get the impetus to increase their shorting? Long term trend lines? The trading/profit&loss sheet/ balance sheet?

3 out of the last 4 years financial results have been huge losses, despite Nick Read assuring all last November, that the £7B interim loss was a "one-off". By the year end announced in May, it had closed with a bigger loss showing that the second half of the year had also ran at a loss as the final loss had now increased to an £8b loss.

Maybe they were convinced of an increasing fall in revenue & more losses, and this small fall, below last years revenue was no where deep or as bad as they expected? So they're closing, yes? Is that why the sudden almost panic like rise in the SP today on news of the revenue being down? Because if not, I don't understand this large re-rating SP rise.

I'm going with it being shorters reducing. So their outstanding tallies will need to be monitored for reductions over the coming days and weeks, for no other reason than I just gots to knows, was it 5 shots or 6 shots?

If it is Shorters then it would explain - (Continues>

Based on back of a fag packet calcs. Looking to achieve ( but preferably exceed ) -

Revenue of £11,170m approx

&

Net Profit of £549m approx

For a bullish resp[onse from the market,

but dare to come in significantly under those, and . . . . . . . . . . .