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New Part 2 ( maybe another Papost after this)

Further observations -

"salient difference and that's free cash flow.
Unilever generates enough free cash flow to cover CAPEX, dividends, pension contributions,
with plenty left over, year on year.
BT does not - which is why net debt is increasing.
Note the increase in interest costs that BT reported at their last update."

- Two issues you've brought up to make the same, single point.

Debt is increasing (yes, I agree it is), so why also add 'interest costs are increasing'?
If you increase your debt then it follows that you will automatically increase your interest costs. Yes?
They're not separate issues.
If debt gets paid down and falls, then it's likely interest costs will fall too, yes?

You've made your point; no need to treat it as if others will immediately dispute BT's debt pile. Pretty sure long term BT holders know all about the debt pile ad nauseaum, and will not argue instead, that no there is no debt.
- It's a given. Not an issue in dispute.

Further observation also on -

" ...In other words on my take BT is not even covering it's running costs atm,
when dividends and pension contributions are factored in."

"ATM"?!? Disagree. BT is covering it's running costs - ATM!

- Going forward into future years then your point is valid and upheld.

Consider: BT's "Interest Cover" TTM (current 12 month trailing based on latest interims) is showing as a stupendously healthy @ 5.45 metric.

Text book interpretation of 5.45 says: Quote - (otherwise Google it)

------------------
Quote:
"INTEREST COVER:
This is a useful way of measuring a company's ability to meet its debt obligations. When the interest coverage ratio is smaller than 1, the company is not generating enough profit from its operations to meet its interest obligations.
The Company would then likely have to either use cash on hand to make up the difference or borrow funds. It is seen as a possible warning sign when interest coverage falls below 2.5x.
N.B. This relatively simple definition implicitly assumes that operating income is a true proxy for cash flow from operations which it should be for a steady state business where depreciation is equal to capex, and working capital change is zero."
-----------------

Repeat: BT's Interest Cover is based on the latest data is standing at 5.45. It can pay all comers - this current year.

Now if you dump your "ATM" and talked about 'going forward', you'd have me onboard. So let's not over gild the lily here. Going forward, then yep, may have to be further cuts and economies to make ends meet what with Fibre, 5G, and all the rest.

VOD is in the same predicament and has decided to sell the crown jewels (it's towers) to overcome theirs.

Continues >>>>>

(Part 1 Concludes ) >>>>

; I'd like them to co-ignite simultaneously if fate decrees it so :) Wonder if Fleccy's black arts algobots are working on engineering the same LO! - If so, suits me, sir.

A further observation in that post on VOD I find to be erroneous in full, namely:

"..Look at the VOD relative outperformance since their dividend cut."

That's:
A) (unintentionally) misleading
and
B) not my recollection of events at all.

Last November the new CEO stamped his authority on the VOD by announcing no cut to the divi under his leadership and the SP rose in response from 150's (or was it 140's?) continuously all the way up to 170 at the night before XD day. That was Nov'18 and after retracing the divi amount in the next days, it kept on falling! And falling - back to where it started; 140's? (Maybe less - relying on recall now). Then in the annual results this spring (barely 6 months later) he announced "Changed my mind. We're now cutting the dividend as we need the money for other projects".

Reaction was one of fury for the CEO doing a poor job of forecasting and the SP plunged even lower - at one point down to the low 120's. So where did it rise due to the effect of a divi cut?

At the recent Q1 interim update the CEO announced the proposed sale of all 61,000 masts either as an IPO or part sales or other methods of raising cash - and the SP "exploded" on that news alone - and in no way due to the divi cut.
The price had dropped further on the divi cut - But shot up on the announcement of the tower sale - and rose on that alone, and had zero to do with the divi cut.

You've made some v good points but citing VOD as "outperforming" due to "their dividend cut" is wholly and completely inaccurate. Don't sully v good points you make with inaccurate observations of other companies. Your points stand well enough on their own; no need to gild them needlessly.

A couple of other observations, as I'm using distraction from other onerous duties because it's too damn hot :)

....(I'll call it Part 2 in case I over run)

Part 1)

Hi Andyagogo. Enjoyed reading your recent posts and have some mild observations on some of the issues you raise in them under the guise of 'there's always two sides to consider in every debate' etc., So bearing that in mind -

(By the way, your name rings a bell to me, but it would appear this last week of your posts, are the first on BT for some length of time, so either I recognise your name from elsewhere, or it's from earlier times on this forum?)

Whatever, appreciate your contribution, and reasoned thought in coming to your conclusions. Must say on the whole, and in general, I was already broadly in agreement with your conclusions. However . . . back to my opening para :)

Your opening post of: "Forget the PE - too rudimentary."

Now I do take issue with that stance. You do admit the PE ratio is "... A valuation metric for BT imv..."

Yes, couldn't agree more, that's exactly what it is!
Personally I have found it to serve me very well. But it confounds and confuses when applied to 'hot stocks', 'high flyers' and market sentiment luvvie favourites of the month.
In this instance I assume you were only pouring cold water on posters who were citing BT's ultra low PE ratio as an undervalued SP, and by inference, assuming it was a call to others to buy - yes? And don't really regard it as "too rudimentary". I regard it as a windsock; not a full weather forecast, and do not agree it is too rudimentary - at all.

BT's PE ratio does designate it as undervalued; seriously cheap - when compared only to within both its industry and the whole market in general. The SP has already baked in the debt pension deficit crisis into its price. Could fall further, in fact looks more than likely - short term.

In other words, investors buying, are not buying an overpriced, expensive stock - based on conventional metrics alone. It looks cheap, a bargain, but has been 'a bargain' for a very long time and has just gotten cheaper and cheaper with age.

Incidentally, the SP is well oversold right now on technical's and with the end of XD period due in early Sept I wouldn't be surprised if the two conditions combine to deliver a temporary reprieve (or maybe not temporary, who knows for sure?) And can be quite easily be persuaded that early Sept may see a welcome lift in the SP (It may re-continue to drift south in later weeks as it has done solidly for nigh on 3 & 3/4 years now) but conditions are conspiring for a wee lift in early Sept IMO, if this oversold condition can continue to be lousy right up to just before divi payment day. In other words, for maximum explosive dislodging I 'need' to see the SP suffer a week or two longer and not lift out of o/sold before divi payment day - both are close at hand; I'd like them to co-ignite simultaneously if fate decrees it so :) Wonder if Fleccy's black arts algobots are working on engineering the same LO! - If so, suits me, sir.

A further observation - continues >>>>>>

Yes, I agree heavy buying by the CFO in normal circumstances would be indicative of a positive outlook. But disagree for contrarian reasons on this occasion.

Unfortunately both BAG execs and (from my own personal experience) 99.9% of LSE posters utterly fail to take in the significance and severity of profit warnings and how the market treats them. IMO the SP from the day of the profit warning has now become wholly unreliable and will mislead until at least summer next year, where, only then will it be more "safer" and not a green light, that concern over the SP is over. Until then, I believe the SP will alternate from disappoint to delight - both will be unreliable.

The data by academic researchers shows that if you have researched the stock well, and have full confidence in it's long term recovery then you can look at the inevitable dips to come as topping-up opportunities, otherwise the general advice is to sell on the day of the profit warning, or short it on the day.

I had posted elsewhere (behind a pay wall) of a possible worst case scenario of 420 being a possibility - at the worst. I'm not forecasting it, neither was the poster your post references who mentioned 420, but merely highlight it as a worst case potential possibility. If I knew for certain it was heading there then I would say here that would be my entry vicinity into BAG. But that is a strong support level and before that is a less stronger one in the 530's, which coincidentally brings me to the point of this post, and a suggestion of 530's as far more likely a floor (presupposing the SP does visit the 500's at some point in the next full year).

And it's because of the (forward) P/E ratio.

BAG has always been awarded a premium P/E ratio by the market for its perceived growth potential. Just before the profit warning it was running at near double the industry average at well over P/E30+ And back in June it was in the high 20's at P/E28. Right now with the reduced profits warned for H2, the forward PE ratio is down to P/E20.2 Only thing is that's still sporting a premium rating to the market - as the industry median is fwd P/E17.5

Hardly "severe punishment" by the market is it? Just to bring the SP down to the industry median would still not be a real downgrading; only bringing BAG into line with the industry average. And that for the SP would be 536p just to give BAG a P/E of 17.5

So 536 and STILL the P/E ratio would only be 'average'. Also it fits rather neatly with the 50% Fibbo retracement level of 530's area. However down below that is the ultimate 61.8% Fibbo retracement of the 420's.

So my first stop-over for considering either an entry or a top-up would be the 530's.

It's all to do with the profit warning as the CFO and his early purchase may well soon discover to his cost - or not if you believe that him buying, tops all other opinions including how the market treats profit-warning hit shares.

All above IMO

. . . . you lucky, lucky, lucky, bstrds!!!!! - 50% in one day!?!

Shouldn't complain though. Been in and out of GNK at least 3 times over last few years and all with a nice reasonable profit. So adding all 3 occasions together really shouldn't complain at all. BUT I AM! As was thinking about getting back in. Trading forecasts looking good. And when price drifted below 600p I started to sit up straight.
- Low 600's then 580's, 570's. Did I see 560's on Friday?

In fact did it intraday to 550's for a time; was that Thurs, Fri or today?

Whatever, was just waiting for the bearish trend lines to commence turning to the upside; which would entail perhaps getting back in at a little over 600 maybe, with the insurance of a bullish uptrend underway for reassurance. Late afternoon decided to pay the house insurance, get a cuppa and a choccie biccy and come back; was certain it hadn't ceased dropping. 580's last I looked. Been having some service provider issues it was now approx 3:45pm and thought it must be later as LSE was now showing crazy process as it does just after close. Was almost on verge of tapping the side of the desktop and monitor as thought I saw 570's and the next - 620 something. Then just as quickly it was showing low 800's!!!

Feckin' LSE I thought - sort yourselves out.

Checked the time, had it gone 4:30pm? No, it wasn't even 4pm. What the hell is going on then? Stoopid service provider!

Looks up at the prices on LSE and they were not crazy buy and sells - but perfectly in tune - 850's was on everything and now it WAS 4pm. What was wrong? I came off my charts and came back here hurriedly and scanned over the comments. Seemed alarmingly quiet. Must be another malfunction like the market not opening until 9am the other day.
Lots of WOW's about. So they were the same as me.

But one shook me.

It said "Question is whether there might be further interest".
I instantly ran cold.

The RNS had a '1' lit up so clicked it and . . .

- ARRRRGGGGGGGGHh! FECK! FECK! FECK! NOoooooooooooooooooooooo! It's a flecking' takeover! Sheet!

Feckin' L!!!!!!!!!!

But I shouldn't complain. No one could have foreseen it.

Whilst you're all celebrating consider this quote about GNK, today (from behind a pay wall):

" Yet another foreign takeover bid for a UK company. Something is going on here - no doubt helped by weak sterling, foreign investors seem to be untroubled by Brexit risk, and are snapping up UK listed companies at a remarkable pace. Which pubco will be next then? "
------------------
If this accelerates will we all be working for foreign owners in the future? The opposite of what all Brexiteers had envisaged I expect.

. . . and divi payment day - and so the shackles are officially removed from BT's ankles, leaving it to run free unhindered.

Free to return up to the pre XD day SP?
- Or as in most (but not all) previous years, free to continue on the measured down trending route it was on, before being so rudely interrupted?

In attempting to answer that, I reveal Exhibit One your honour (swishes away a dust cover from Exhibit One to reveal an OVERSOLD CONDITION. The jury and gallery gasps in horror, as the prosecutor continues:

Yes, BT technically entered Oversold Condition on 14th August m'lud, and you know what that means? It's supposed to "rise" out of it, once the oversold condition exhausts itself. So how close is the oversold condition to exhaustion in relation to the natural "push" on being released from XD period on Sept 9th?
I'd say a perfect match - for a price rise. If not, then the market really, really, hates BT with a vengeance.

Consider:
It only entered Oversold Condition barely 3 trading days ago, so is young and characteristically BT likes it's oversold tumours to grow for at least a fortnight or two before lancing them, so Sept 9th fits like a glove!

Omens are A1 - for a lift out of 160's if still at this price juncture (or worse) from Sept 9th onwards.

Thank you, I rest my case, your honour.

---------------------
The Judge's summing up before passing sentence:

It's tempting to say XD period is responsible for the temporary O/sold condition, but it measures the SPEED of the drop in price movement, not just a decrease, and the SP was speedily wilting quite badly right up to the last day + add the XD period and it hit the tipping point - and over it went, leading eventually to this O/sold condition (extreme bearish sentiment).
I believe if the SP had behaved similar to last year's corresponding XD period there would not have been enough speed in the SP drop, to trigger the event.

Last year's XD period did not trigger any O/Sold conditions. There was one right in early May 2018 and when it came out of that, it led to the greatest bull run since Jan 2016, right through to the last day of Nov 2018, but there was no O/Sold presence observed in last year's similar XD period.

So it's a 'potential' double whammy positive.

1) A natural lift is due after exiting XD period
and
2) A further natural lift (but not always a big lift) after coming out of O/Sold condition; and as of Friday it is admittedly only a weedy, embryonic, oversold condition developing.

However, if the SP holds here (and no lower, further drops) until Sept 9th - the O/Sold condition will peter out dismally and the SP recover only modestly.

Late at night gone 1:00am, so may have made mistakes. Anyone who differs or sees any errors in my thinking shout out, preferably before Monday, as thinking about an initial tranche purchase.

First off, this latest retrace is all to do with the fund raising of £16m via a £14m placing plus a £2m open offer to all current holders.

I've always found - without exception - that dilutions to the share pool via discounted placings always, always, comes back to haunt and show up in a decrease in the SP - so absolutely everyone gets a shot at the discounted price, LOL!

And here it is tonight just single pence above 100. But for how long?

Now I know I speculated over 110/112 being the floor before rising again, but the SP was resisting that and apart from (I think) visiting intraday to approx 113 or 114 etc., it was looking like 110/112 was a bit overkill.

The day before the RNS confirming the fund raising via placings, the SP was approx 116p.
So take 116p as the starting point.

The placing totals £16m
- and @ 110p per share that's 14,545... (oh how curious it's sort of a recurring number :) 14,545,454 shares created, thus diluting the current shares in circulation.

Current shares in circulation = 165,202,679 so 14,545,454 created shares "dilute" the pool by 8.8% (Or 8% if the two are added to reach the new total and the newly introduced shares calculated as the dilution.

So the SP of 116p before the announcement x 91.2% = a new diluted SP of 105/106p approx. (or - just under 107p if using the second method).

Thursday (16th Aug the SP dropped intraday to touch 107.5p) - So was that the new "diluted" floor? Was that the best buying price, on Thursday (yesterday)?

Friday closed at 109p so food for thought. Don't know for sure.

Or do I have to factor in the difference between 110p and the prior 116p price? So only 5.1% dilution? If memory serves me well, it's always turned out to be the worst option, so will plump for 105/106-ish/ (or that near-107p).

But has that already occurred more or less with Thursday's intraday low (and now the established 52 week low of 107.5p)?

(Concludes) >>>

-----------------
Now as to why the SP is parked up, consolidating around high 140's/ low 150 area.

Regard the following as a negative if you want; I'm more inclined for it to be more the market wanting further detailed guidance from Nick Read to his rather vague towers for sale announcement.

There have been no definitive pounds and pence figures or further data on the 2,100+ towers for sale announcement
- only media speculation - all on the same day of the announcement.

Before the SP can go marching on to higher ground is it asking:
"Show us some specifics so we can calculate how much the SP is truly worth?"

- Check Read's actual statement which has not been added to, nor amended, nor further plans/decisions, disclosed -

"Vodafone To Create Europe's Largest Tower Company. . . (and concludes with) = The ultimate form of monetisation may include
an IPO
or disposal of a minority stake in TowerCo,
as well as potential disposals of minority
or majority stakes
at an individual country level..."

--------------------
So "MAY" include an IPO, so it might not, in other words no new company to float!
It says "OR" disposal of a minority stake.... and adds
" as well as "POTENTIAL" disposals of "EITHER" minority or majority stakes at "INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY" level.

Now anyone - how does the market turn all that musing by the CEO (to which he still hasn't decided which exact route he and the BOD might ultimately take) into pounds and pence?

It's that lot IMO that is holding the market from fully developing a clear price to cough up for VOD. However, like a shark smells blood in the sea, the market smells big money to be made - so has put its initial markers down (accumulation still rising) but daren't gamble too high to pay for VOD's SP until more definite direction is received from the CEO on the route he finally wants to travel down.

Until then, the market is guessing how much money the towers will bring in. When they get some decent direction they can put a price on the SP - And only then, can one see if "50% or 60% more from here" is possible as one analyst in the media has been quoted as to his best guess.

- I still think that's an embryonic Flat Base building up. Only a sudden further jump up in the SP would ruin it, as I fear the SP is looking like going higher. Need a minimum of 5 weeks at least for really strong base to build further solid, reliable increases from - don't start wishing for a quick rise from here.

'Ow's that for pumping, DanielH :) ?

(Only it's not pumping but my personal evaluation of the current situation :)

1) The SP exploded above the 200 day moving average on the interim results day and has held above that level ever since, and shows no sign of relinquishing that newly held ground. How significant is that? Well, VOD began this huge retrace in early 2018 - and has never let up. By spring 2018 the SP sank below the 200 day sma and had never been above it until interim results day a week or so back. Mathematically the SP must keep increasing to remain above it - perpetually.
So far I have been seriously impressed by how VOD has simply refused to give up it's position in the high 140's/low 150's. Impressive.

Time to regard this area as the "new base"? And for battered longer term holders to cease waiting for a fallback as if it's all inevitable and this only a transitory dream?

The 200 day moving average in VOD's case, I make at 139p has been 138 since interim results day but increased a day or so ago (I use adjusted for divis/right's issues et all data, so your 200 day ma may differ - but only fractionally). But the SP is above the 200 day ma! Institutions like that in a share.

2) Again since the interim results day my regular trend lines for VOD are up-trending and remain bullish. All indicators and oscillators are still singing VOD's praises. In other words, VOD is still in bullish mode.

3) From results day to approx Aug 5th the SP exploded so suddenly that it entered overbought territory. However after Aug 5th it has barely descended back down any further. Probably because volume is still in accumulation condition. Accumulation went from distribution to bullish accumulation on interim results day and has remained in accumulation mode ever since!

-----------------
Now as to why the SP is parked-up, consolidating around high 140's/ low 150 area.
Regard the following as a negative if you want; I'm more inclined for it to be more the market wanting further detailed guidance from Nick Read to his rather vague towers for sale announcement.

There have been no definitive pounds and pence figures or data on the 2,100+ towers for sale announcement
- only media speculation - all on the same day of the announcement.

Before the SP can go marching on to higher ground is it asking "show us some specifics so we can calculate how much the SP is truly worth?"

Check Read's actual statement which has not been added to, nor amended, nor further plans disclosed -

................ Continues >>>>>

Out today (the 16th Aug) broker's analysts forecasts for Q2 ending Sept 30th (Actual results achieved to be published on Oct 31st) and by definition the H1 result.
(All forecasts revealed on BT's site).

Very latest broker's analysts forecasts for Revenue are (There's 15 brokers in all, but for this Q2 update only 10 have produced a consensus forecast whilst only 5 went further and included a net profit forecast).
- Throughout there are highest and lowest that are totalled to reveal median and mean averages. To get one single answer, I've taken their two totals of "median" and "mean" and divided by 2, so for instance revenue median is £5,777m and mean is £5,762m ergo: £5,769.5m.

Revenue for Q2 = £5.7bn (£5,769.5m)
--------------------------------------------

Q1 Actual result was £5.633bn so the very latest forecast as of today, is to achieve a higher revenue performance in Q2.
(Q1 revenue was 1% down on last years Q1 actual).

((Also, I make the Q2 forecast slightly below last year's actual Q2 revenue)).

/

NET profit for Q2 = £4.985bn (£498.5m)
------------------------------------------------

Q1 actual net profit result was £505m so Q2 is forecasting a small decrease in net profit.
I thought the Q1 net profit forecast unusually downbeat and said so at the time. The actual Q1 result "destroyed" the analysts gloomy net profit forecast. So staying on the same track and expecting Q2 net profit to beat analysts forecasts.

So where does that leave the, brand new today, very latest full year forecasts? >>>>

----------------------------

Current full year, very latest Revenue forecast is for = £23bn (£23,007m)
Last year actual was £23.459bn so no change there in a continuation of y-o-y declines in revenue forecast by the analysts.

Current full year very latest NET profit forecast is for = £2bn (£2,008m)
Last year actual net profit was £2.159bn (£2,159m) so the first year in a couple of years, to cease the increasing y-o-y increases in net profit.

As said, until the Q2 results come out on Oct 31st, I'm a little more bullish on net profit beating analysts forecasts as they have a bad habit of underestimating net profit.

At least £2bn net profit is an improvement on what the Q1 indicated for the full year. Something I suppose.
Net profit has not fallen below £2bn - for 3 years or so!

Below £2bn net profit is a physiological barrier that would further impact sentiment IMO, just as sub £20bn revenue would, and sub 200p has the SP.
- So, it's on the cards for no sub-£2bn net profit this year at least!

Hi Longish, saw your post earlier, but racing to get ready to hit the road first thing tomorrow, and didn't dare divert attention. So pushing to get this response in before I go. And then if I post at all this week/next week (unlikely) it will only be at circa midnight.

1) General advice is NOT to depend on candlesticks for day trading as unreliable. Full days only as a minimum.
Even so, they are fractional in that they are supposed to perform on all scales. Personally, I find no problems intraday at all - if you stick to singles and the two candle pattern Harami's and Engulfing's, then no problems.

3). "Morning Star Doji? Tomorrow's candlestick"? Be on your guard against trying to anticipate the next candlestick as that's strictly frowned on. Confirmation is the name of the game, which means you might lose a low entry just waiting for a confirmatory candlestick to appear. Only then are you safe and good to go.
Confirmation, Confirmation, Confirmation - no anticipation.
(Although I'm at the back of the class in breaking that rule, so I can therefore testify to it's efficacy).

I thought tonight's close was either a Spinning Top Doji although it's halfway to looking like a High Wave Doji, (bottom wick too short though). Either way bullish in it's own right, but as a pattern with that big red on Friday, I still view the situation as indicating continuation of the current bear trend.

Which is sheer madness as it's a divi hunter's dream to receive the equivalent of getting a full year's high yielding divi (5%+ as it stands) all in one interim payment. And yet unbelievably, the SP gapped down this morning! Records will now show BT as down for the day, yet in actual fact the day on it's own closed higher than it opened and is actually a bull day in isolation.
Pre-auction just before opening dropped the price down. "Should" have been easily, easily, recoverable (that huge divi!)

I'm "expecting" a kick up by the SP before Wednesday's close, but at this rate . . . . . . so if not to be, then the SP must have entered Alice in Wonderland.
A huge divi and the SP drops another day yet again, in the immediate days leading up to XD day? Unbelievable!

So hope you're right and get that confirmation, but running out of time before the door closes.

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