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Afternoon All.

One way of looking at this share, if your positive is that possibly in 12 -18 months the CC pipeline of confirmed orders could have grown from around 5 million smart meters ( £60m -£75m) Today, to say 20 million ( £240 m - £300 m) by then or even much higher.

its hard to believe that at least the first 100 million meters awards, if not them all would not have been handed out to AMISPS and sub contractors by that time.

Of course this is the reason many are invested, and if it comes to pass then even though only a small percentage of the CC awards would have been implemented by this time, the confirmed pipeline of orders going to CC hopefully looking forward should add a massive amount of value to the company. Of , course a re rate to the SP could happen long before next year , depending on when the numbers fall, and what size awards come first.

My understanding which is limited tells me that the Indian rollout for the first 100 million smart meters , is aimed at the low bearing fruit in regions and with utilities with the biggest power theft, loss, non payments etc , and many of these are in rural areas and I think involve big industry, also. These are exactly the same challenges that CC solution was made for, and has proven can eliminate in India- so there is a chance that CC get over the 20 million meter awards in the first wave. Then they can take their chances in the remaining 150 million meters that come along next.

meanwhile, the share price is what it is, and will remain this way until hopefully the numbers really start to stack up, each award adding significant value.

Not surprisingly, Genus have made plans..

https://www.ibm.com/case-studies/genus-power-infrastructures#:~:text=Genus%20Power%20Infrastructures%20Ltd.%20is,for%20utility%20and%20energy%20boards.

Thanks for your reply LT.

Something I discovered in a genus earnings call from earlier in the year, where one of the analysts asked this question

"Sir, first question is, in general, there has been a lot of tenders in the market, and we have seen some of the tenders IntelliSmart and Apraava Energy have won the contracts who do not have manufacturing capacity. Do you have some exclusive tie-up with all these — the large players?"

The managing director Genus replies " Hello. Yeah. Good evening. So, of course, on this AMISP players who are seeing the big contracts, they do work with us as suppliers, and frankly, we have got orders from IntelliSmart for supplying smart meters for them in AMISP projects."

and the Genus Director goes further, in answering the next question from the analyst, by saying

"So, the relationship is typical buyer and seller relationship and we are receiving orders from all the AMISPs who are working currently in the market."

So Genus are not only supplying themselves , so to manage their own awards, but they are supplying all AMISPs , including IntelliSmart !

https://alphastreet.com/india/genus-power-infrastructures-limited-genuspower-q3-fy23-earnings-concall-transcript/

So taking into account the above, IntelliSmart for example ( but could be any Indian AMISP) could place an order with Cyan, who request Genus to manufacture the meters, and supply. Cyan get paid at some point .

So In theory, all Cyans orders won in India via AMISPS could be handled by Genus, who manufacture and deliver - Just a thought. If this is the case then the model is just like what Tony was mentioning earlier today, talking about "In past JC was quite precise about Genus paying for modules at the gate upon delivery".

also, this out last week

"In a significant milestone, RECPDCL, a wholly owned subsidiary of REC Limited specializing in power sector consultancy, has inked Implementation Contracts and Direct Debit Facility (DDF) Agreements with Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers (AMISPs) IntelliSmart and Apraava Energy."

This collaboration involves the deployment of 17.7 Lakh Smart Meters and 23.6 Lakh Smart Meters for Dakshin Gujarat Vij Company Ltd (DGVCL) and Paschim Gujarat Vij Company Ltd (PGVCL), respectively.

https://recindia.nic.in/recpdcl-inks-implementation-contracts-and-ddf-agreements-for-gujarat-with-amisps

Thanks Tony, i do seem to remember this a few years ago.

I do hope you are right in this matter, but if meters are presently being made by Genus with CC solution inside - shouldn't we be receiving some significant revenues now?

As an aside, some very interesting tenders on the IntelliSmart site, coming to conclusion this month, i guess, if we are lucky we may hear some news on awards around Xmas.

The two Tandesco tenders closed yesterday, the others later this month.

https://www.intellismartinfra.in/tenders/smart-meter-tenders

There are also three pages of assortment IntelliSmart specific tenders below..

https://www.intellismartinfra.in/tenders/intellismart-tenders

Just playing d evils advocate , but if Genus are manufacturing Cyans solution in such large numbers and incorporating it into some / or all of their meters then at what stage would CC / we see a rather large revenue lift as Genus make millions each year.....at what point would CC invoice for these units...on initial order, on actual manufacture, on delivery to partner, on installation....there could be up to a two year period between initial order and installation.

Is it at all possible , let say that genus have just completed manufacturing a million units with CC inside - how would CC get paid, per each Quatre, or per million ...I have no idea, what do you think , and so far no evidence of this alternative revenue stream being declared., to my knowledge. cheers vas

Hi Bill,

I notice a clear lack of information, tweets or anything to to do withy digitalising CDCs. So to me this is dead in the water at the present time.

Apparently Tom , is part of a pressure group to do something, which may lead to a more general rollout of digital glue - but where are the details, discussions, news, critiques, etc ....again silence.

They are very able to tweet and use social media ...so Tom, give us a clue where you are going with this stuff, do it via a third party, if its less uncomfortable - just point us in the general direction and we will find it..

Just a belated observation. And it reminds me of the old saying ( cant remember who quoted this), But during the gold rush era in US, the ones who made the money where not the gold prospectors but the people who sold the spades, boots, and donkeys etc.

So just to update this quote to 2023.

As we all know how the order of awards are placed in India for the rollout. In retrospect, that was important info !

We should have all invested in the main AMISPS like Genus , which is up 100% in past three months. there are several others examples like them too. So in retrospect it would not have been difficult to spot the main players.

and then , if still greedy invest in the sub contractors later.

Worth remembering maybe for another time.

Many Thanks LT.

Sobering thought that todays order is just the fourth award from IntelliSmart in the past five months and CC have now added a further 1.7million meters into their pipeline ! just from one partner, just this past five months, and in a period of relative non activity seen in rest of market as far as sub contractors go.

This equates to ( using your numbers) something of between £20 m and over £25 million in future revenue won just from IntelliSmart, from just four awards , this past five months .

Things can only improve once the AMIPS in the India Smart meter rollout begin to release their awards to subcontractors in larger numbers, which is due to happen anytime starting now, and should be concluded in six - nine months latest.

There is a real possibility( its my entire Investment case! ) that CC will get similar awards, from its many other partners and consortium members at regular intervals just as we have been doing this last few months with IntelliSmart .

What If IntelliSmart continue to give CC regular 300,000 or more awards over the next year, and onwards which could amount to between 8 - 10 awards a year (which would clear the present day 3 million meter framework agreement) then this alone, without any contributions from any other Indian partner or ( awards from abroad) could add somewhere between £40 m plus to £50 m plus, each year to future revenue...Just IntelliSmart !

As I'm invested, I have to be positive and and I can now see a real chance that possibly in a year to eighteen months, who knows! ... Cyan could have such a large pipeline of meter awards allocated to them , much higher than its AIM market cap at this time, and that this would be the point of a possible sale or takeover.

I'm usually quite late to the game, but if CC can grow their confirmed awards pipeline to something massive in India , and I am now thinking that this maybe the strategy, and also have some footprint of partners on the ground, progress and pilots in places such as Africa, south east Asia, etc for development and export .

What would be a better exit strategy as the BODs do not need to spend the next ten years micro managing new pilots, rollouts in other country's.

Obviously, must have something to aim for on AIM, but if none of this happens then i go very quite and slink away. GL Vas

The irony is that FDBK specialise in Communication !

its funny how just a few months can turn an investment.

Just last Xmas when FDBK was riding high on the enormous amounts of near term opportunities in UK over the following 6-9 months with CDCs etc ............and here we are nine months later , nothing just a barren landscape of silence.

They say, once the communication between two party's disappears the relationship is over - so today i remain, more out of hope that they can pull something out of a hat, than anything concrete.

Does anyone have an idea what a 5 million smart meter pipeline of awarded contracts looks like in £££s.

We presently have a market cap of around £30 million, pretty small.

The timelines and contract conditions will vary for each award that makes up the 5 million, but it should be possible to put something together that gives us a good idea what a 5 million pipeline looks like over next two plus years.

If i where to have a stab, ( in the dark) i would go for £12 per unit . With £8 paid out per unit in two years after instalment.

The following £4 per unit, paid out annually over say eight remaining maintenance years. = 50p per year, per unit

So £40 m due approx. from orders known to be in pipeline from TODAY, after installations over / in around two years.

Plus a further £2.5 million PA reoccurring revenue due to start in two years and for a further eight years. ( £20m in total)

With a likely two year gap possible between the date the meters ordered until they are installed and activated.

Also, When would the revenue from each individual order ( of the 5 m meters pipeline) hit the CC accounts? Would it be from date of order ( ex. 30 / 60 days from Today, for todays order) or not until, 20 months once all meters are installed.

I see it as a two step process. the modules need to be placed in meters at manufacture and also made live once project completed ( software) . Surely CC will get a fee for each meter manufactured with its solution inside earlier rather than later. All views welcome.

Evening LT,

Genus seem very confident on a continuation of these awards throughout FY 24...by which time all or most meter awards should have been made. So, pace should really pick up going forward into our second half , with any Genus customer who requires a RF solution, or maybe a hybrid solution going to CC, hopefully.

Then there all the other routes to market with our other partners. GL Vas

For those who keep an eye on the changes here.

https://www.nsgm.gov.in/en/sm-stats-all

Https://www.bqprime.com/business/genus-power-bags-orders-worth-rs-3115-crore-for-smart-meters

HI LT, You may recall this, but I do not and when i tried to find out more about the utility or region that the project took place in , i can find absolutely nothing. It's unlikely to be one of the usual suspects in terms of Indian projects as they would have named it.

I can only fins this link and a mention on the SEW web sight.

"IntelliSmart and SEW won Best Smart Grid Project in India – Technology Company/Implementing Agency category at the India Smart Grid Forum 2023 ".

It would be good to know what two of our partners are working on In India, and why they are wining awards like bet smart smart grid project. GL Vas

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7038425664907001856

Now we know that Ajoy Rajani is Cyan's leading Business Development in the Americas and also has been, and remains advisor to SEW , it make the CC RNS from 2021 much more meaningful.

"SEW is delighted to partner with CyanConnode and offer its customers CyanConnode's intelligent communication solutions, in the knowledge that this technology has been proven by worldwide commercial scale deployments.

At the same time this collaboration will allow our platform to be deployed globally as utilities continue their digital transformation journey."

https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-14980484-7H4VGNQH2BR6MQV4D244SC09MI

Afternoon LT.

Thank you for your US posts and imagine if CC in future succeeded in wining business in the US !

The sp might even jump a penny ! LOl

Something I have noticed is that in the media Ajoy Rajani is sometimes referred to as Ajay Rajani and for while it was quite confusing as both of these names have multiple[le owners.

A good example here .

If you look at this page, of a List of India Smart Grid Forum (ISGF) employees Ajay is listed as currently working for

The ISGF ( board of governors) for approx. thirteen years

and

CyanConnode as advisor for approx. over two years

and also since 2019 he has been employed as a member of the board of advisors at Smart Energy Water ( Irvine, California) in USA !, and California is listed as his present location

as well as with OBO consulting for two years , based in Paris.

https://www.signalhire.com/companies/india-smart-grid-forum-isgf/employees

If you read his bio here, Ajoy is credited with working as

"advisor to the board of Smart Energy Water (Irvine, California) and was formerly on the board of CDMA Development Group. (San Diego, California)."

Ajay / Ajoy has been busy advising SEW, USA for several years , while continuing to be employed as adviser to CC - so a deal of some type could be closer than we would normally think, at this stage of the proceedings in USA.

Good to see another region developing behind the scenes. GL and Thanks Vas

Hi Tony, Something I did not realise is that any AMISP who wins an award can has the "Flexibility to select/

change subcontractor".

This is IMO an interesting point as the AMISP can't be changed after the award unless of a violation but they could inn theory start their award with one subcontractor to provide a solution, and drop them and selct another contractor to finish the job to the SLA.

This is interesting because even if CC are not initially selected by a AMISP , say on cost, or partnership reasons the AMISP must ensure that the SLA'S are being met, and they can still select an alternative , better solution from another contractor to meet the SLAs, and bite the bullet regarding the extra cost.

Good to know that in extreme situations there may be two bites of this very lucrative cherry !

page 15

It also seems that AMISPs need to ensure operationalization of 5% smart meters

or 25000 meters (whichever is less), to start their monthly payments, which are based on number of meters operationalized.

https://cyanconnode.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Smart-Metering-in-India-Webinar_22Apr2022.pdf

Cyan is a difficult share , especially identifying any proper trends, but if we look at the past few years trading updates etc, and what we are told by the company then Cyan's first half year is their weakest. They tend to get their large wins during their second half . I think we all know this.

The trading update to 30th September released yesterday was very good, but is still a reflecting of their least profitable year half.

If you look back a couple of years to early/mid Oct 2021 the sp hit a low of 11.5 p and bounced a round hitting highs of 26p, and again 23p , and again 21p until late Feb 22 , and then fell away.

Likewise Sept / October 22 hitting lows of around 12p before touching highs of 26p, and again 24p before falling away again in March 22.

All these prices where the highs of their year, and occurred in the second half of their financial year.

So here we are in October 23 , in similar positions as in October 2021 and 2022 with a share price of around 11p .

Ok , on a negative we have bad market sentiment to deal with, but on the positive side we have the following to look forward to in the second half and beyond of this financial year...

a) An excellent trading update yesterday IMO - heading in the right direction and most importantly before many of the major Indian tenders awards have been announced.

b) 250 million meters to be awarded to AMISPS , and many to sub contractors over next six months and onwards.

c) We are "On trend" as far as my simple observation indicates - so if the trend continues - should expect a good share price rise, on the back of even more news than usual in the coming months.

So, if I am correct, unless their is a catastrophe, todays share price has historically been a good buy signal and could well be very lucrative - especially this year when you factor in the unprecedented added value of India actually in the process of handing out many mega contracts.

I have been adding more this week, all shown as red - i decided on the basis we are at a yearly historic low, with a yearly trend, and potentially a even more exciting game changing second half to look forward too, than previous years .

GL Vas

Good progress made IMO.

Last years, Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2022 (H1 FY 2023) stated

Our recent win rate from contracts tendered has been 27% in volume (this financial year) and installed rate is circa 25%. CyanConnode is currently bidding for contracts worth more than £1 billion in value. Our Partners have recently been named as Level 1 status for greater than 25 million units, which, whilst we don't expect to win all of them, suggests a bright future "

Now , as PIs we do not have any idea of what contracts CC or their partners are involved in, and so rely on them to update us .

If CC are going to quote win rates, and install rates then I would wish they continue to include them in future updates - so that we can compare. I know there may be / will be periods of low wins rates, and then periods of much higher wins to compensate - but just one historical snap shot, is meaningless unless compared to future data....

I think from memory, and from recent presentations the second half of year is historically the time CC get the majority of their orders, and significantly next six months onwards is massively different. There is a once in a life time opportunity in India up for grabs over next twelve months or less, will be a frenzy of contract awards , for hundreds of millions of smart meters , worth billions of pounds - likely to be concluded in next six to twelve months - so you could argue Todays update (IMO is good) is much less important as to how they perform and secure contracts during next six - nine months - it will be these contracts that will propel the future SP.

I cant see how how CCs BODs can have any idea of likely numbers relating to future contract wins , as rely on the second level awards , to the subcontractor - so cannot be confident - until that time, I think CC are wise to play it very conservatively.

If I am honest with myself, i am no longer interested in what CC was, or is today but i am only invested for what will they achieve over the next year . I am only going to make money here if CC win contracts, become a bankable " Made in India" solution provider, and export.

I think in a nut shell most Long-term investors here have been invested all this time, just for the next 6- 12 months and GL All

Evening LT,

Thanks for your report on Indonesia. The opportunities are massive. I imagine the all smart metering solution company's world wide , including China will be trying to get their solutions in pilots in Indonesia. Reminds me a bit of Cyan way , way back, when they had a small pilot in the Amazon!

The big difference today is that if CC are successful, India will be their biggest advocate, and probably wish to export their solution to country's like Indonesia and ROW, as part of their "Made In India" initiative.

Meanwhile , here is a recent news report, regarding Indonesia. Can I ask you do we have / have we had any relationship with STMicroelectronics ? I seem to remember, way back they were a distributor to Cyan.

https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/smart-meters/50000-smart-meter-lorawan-retrofit-in-indonesia/